What's next in free agency after the Vikings' two big splashes?

Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom share their strategies on how to proceed after signing two expensive defensive players.

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By Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom

For the second time in three days, the Vikings waited until most teams had closed up shop for the day and then made a splashy defensive acquisition, signing CB Patrick Peterson to a reported one-year, $10 million deal.

Cap space can be tricky to track with moves happening constantly, but it appears the Vikings have around $4 million to work with currently.

So now what?

As GM Rick Spielman promised, the Vikings have been “creative” to free up cap space, using nearly every trick in the book: coaxing Anthony Barr to reduce his salary by offering him earlier free agency, adding void years onto Dalvin Tomlinson’s contract, non-tendering Chad Beebe only to sign him to a veteran minimum later, etc, etc. Most of that savvily-saved money, however, has been devoted to two players, Tomlinson and Peterson.

Considering Danielle Hunter is angling for a raise, Brian O’Neill deserves an extension and the Vikings still need to sign their draft class (probably a $5-6 million cost), things are going to be a little tight from here on. What should they do next?

Here are four strategies to consider:

Sam’s Strategy #1: Two restructures, then help the offense

Rob Brzezinski is running out of tricks to create cap space, but there are a still a couple options at his disposal. One of them is extending Harrison Smith, who is rumored to be open to an extension that would reduce his 2021 cap number. He currently costs $10.25 million.

The longer the extension, the more the Vikings can reduce that cap number with a prorated signing bonus. But Smith is almost 33, so it’s tough to imagine an uber-long deal. We can estimate they could clear up between $5-7 million on Smith.

The other pathway is through Danielle Hunter, who probably isn’t going to accept any reworked deal that doesn’t pay him top-tier edge rusher money, yet the Vikings will want to get his cap hit below the $17.75 million it sits at now. It is possible to accomplish a lower 2021 cap hit and more money for Hunter by spreading out the deal to have higher cap hits in future years.

At very least, we could expect (in this scenario and maybe reality) that those two restructures to open up $10 million. Considering the Vikings’ only offensive activity thus far is re-signing Rashod Hill and Chad Beebe, one possibility for spending that space would be to give some attention to the offensive side.

Let’s start with the offensive line.

If the Vikings aren’t going to move Ezra Cleveland to tackle, they should check in on the top tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Russell Okung. There is also a trio of right tackles in Dennis Kelly (cut by Tennessee), Rick Wagner and Demar Dotson still available if they think O’Neill can flip to the left side.

Guard doesn’t have many higher-end options, but one of the top targets Austin Blythe is still out there. He’s a proven guard and center. There are also a couple of good pass blockers in John Miller or Zach Fulton who could compete at right guard for lower-tier starter money.

Then, in this scenario, the Vikings would turn to receiver, where the market is slow thanks to an apparent belief that the draft is going to produce a myriad of stars.

Danny Amendola and Adam Humphries are still available. There are ample big-name veterans, too — DeSean Jackson, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, etc. — the types that may sign one-year deals.

Spending big money at wide receiver this year does not seem necessary with so many good players waiting for deals but finding some space for a difference maker is one route they could take.

Sam’s Strategy #2: Find one more pass rusher

The Vikings have surprised most of the pundits so far by valuing splashy moves over fliers and value plays. Do they have one more left in them?

Let’s assume they create more cap space and look to knock out one more need that keeps them from having to nail a draft pick. Maybe that’s at edge rusher, where they just let Ifeadi Odenigbo go to the New York Giants, leaving only Stephen Weatherly and D.J. Wonnum in the pipeline besides Hunter.

How about Jadeveon Clowney?

The former No. 1 pick is still struggling to figure out his second act since his Houston career came to an end. He spent one year in Seattle and one year in Tennessee and now he’s a free agent coming off a meniscus injury in a depressed salary cap environment. This screams another one-year deal.

If the Vikings are interested in one-year rentals — like they’re presumably getting with Peterson — this is the time to pounce on Clowney.

Carlos Dunlap is another compelling name. Former Zimmer product in Cincinnati, thirty-two years old, has 87.5 sacks in 11 seasons. That’s a name to keep an eye on if the Vikings want to go big one more time.

What happens to the rest of the roster in that case? They would have to look to the draft and very bottom of the bargain barrel to find a safety, guard and receiver.

Matthew’s strategy #1: Spread out a bunch of small deals

There are still dozens of proven NFL players on the board who could help the Vikings in 2021. Again if we assume that they create a little more breathing room with the cap, the front office could start firing $2 million deals out of a T-shirt cannon and seeing who catches a contract.

Let’s say that either Ezra Cleveland or Rashod Hill is going to start at tackle. The remaining needs would be defensive end, safety, guard and receiver. One way of going about finding an answer at each of those spots is by searching for players to compete for the openings.

Guard: Carolina’s Chris Reed, a first-time starter in 2020 who graded 38th of 60 by PFF (one spot behind Gabe Jackson). Atlanta’s James Carpenter and Green Bay guard Lane Taylor also fall under the category of players who might not have much for market value because of their age and just want a shot.

Defensive end: Adrian Clayborn, Tyrone Crawford, Vinny Curry and Benson Mayowa are all plus-30 situational rushers who won’t demand a high price but could contribute.

Safety: Tre Boston, Will Parks, Duron Harmon and Kenny Vaccaro all have starting experience and appear to have no serious market.

Receivers: Going a little deeper into the free agent pool than Sam’s earlier suggestions, we find Chris Conley (40 catches), Isaiah Ford (28 catches) and Marvin Hall (18 catches).

None of these players are singularly going to be the difference between making the playoffs and missing but taking chances on a handful of them might result in great bang-for-buck value plays.

For example, Benson Mayowa signed for $3 million last offseason and finished the season ranked 36th in pass rush productivity, tied with Jason Pierre-Paul. The Raiders signed Nelson Agholor for $1 million and got 48 catches for 896 yards out of him.

Not all signings work out that well but it only takes a few to make a difference.

Matthew’s strategy #2: Make a big trade

In 2021, anything is possible.

With Danielle Hunter reportedly unhappy and the Vikings seemingly unwilling to budge on his contract, it could be time to start making phone calls as teams miss out in free agency on their favorite pass rushers.

If the Vikings could swing a deal that would fill another major need and bring in extra draft capital while moving on from a disgruntled (albeit outstanding) player, it might be worth parting ways with their terrific star defensive end.

The downside is that dealing Hunter would conflict with the win-now moves of signing Tomlinson and Peterson. In that case, the Vikings would have to rely on a rookie defensive end and the bargain free agent market for more pass rushing help. But if Hunter’s side is going to play hardball, it might be the best option to see if they can find another player to help immediately.

Putting pie-in-the-sky Kirk Cousins trade ideas aside, the only other player that fits with a trade scenario is Harrison Smith. A Smith trade seems improbable but there is a case for trading an older superstar who would create $10 million in cap space to spend elsewhere.

Bottom line

The Vikings have made a very interesting bed for themselves. They can choose to continue the path of chasing down big-name defensive players to get Zimmer’s defense back on track in 2021 or divert from their early free agency strategy and start focusing on deals and offensive players. Or they can drop a bombshell in the middle of the offseason with a trade.

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