What should the Vikings offense look like when JJ McCarthy returns

Looking at key stats that could give us indicators about how McCarthy can thrive

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

The Minnesota Vikings are turning back to JJ McCarthy as they get set to face off with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday. How can they get the most out of their young starting quarterback? Let’s have a look at what the numbers tell us about McCarthy and the offense thus far this season…

First down run/pass ratio

Jordan Mason’s yards per carry rate is down a shade from last year but he has gained 4.9 yards per carry while running on first down and has a 54.5% success rate. That’s the ninth best success rate in the NFL.

So you are not a crazy person if you have been yelling “run Jordan Mason!” at the television.

However, in a very tiny sample size, JJ McCarthy was strong in first-and-10 scenarios, going 9-for-12 passing with five first downs and 8.4 yards per attempt. He also scrambled once for 11 yards.

If there is a time to push the ball into the intermediate areas of the field (between 10-20 yards) where McCarthy had his most success, going 8-for-10 with 137 yards, it’s probably on first down. Those are the situations where defenses most have to respect the run and pass.

While the young QB didn’t hit on many of the play-actions through two games (7-for-14), he was a very strong play-action QB in college and O’Connell’s offense has historically been excellent when using play-action. Last year Sam Darnold posted a 129.4 rating on play-action throws.

Where there could be a play calling change is on second down. Per analytics analyst Sam Hoppen, the Vikings have called the third most runs following a first-down incompletion. A fair number of successful teams have done the same but it’s generally not ideal to run on second-and-10.

Staying away from third down, where McCarthy was just 5-for-11 with four sacks, is vital. Third-and-manageable is fine. Not facing third down altogether is better.

Throws to TE/RBs

As much as TJ Hockenson has not turned in the volume or explosive plays that we came to expect from him in 2022 and 2023, it’s still a good play to throw the ball his way. This year he has a 50% success rate, which is only slightly down from his 54.0% mark as a Viking (per Pro-Football ref). In general across the league, Hock’s success rate is only 22nd of 27 TEs with more than 25 targets this year but the number of TEs creating quality plays tells a story. There are 10 TEs with over 60% success rate and 15 who are gaining at least 7.0 YPA.

Defenses are playing high percentages of zone coverage these days, offering TEs opportunities to get into spaces underneath and post positive gains. Few teams have done this better than the Lions with Sam LaPorta, who has a astronomical 69.4% success rate yet his average depth of target is only 5.6 yards (16th of 27). Tucker Kraft’s ADOT is even lower at 4.7, the same as Hockenson.

Working the ball to Aaron Jones could be vital too. Last year he had the sixth best success rate (58.1%) among all RBs when catching the football. That’s despite an overall underwhelming screen game, speaking to his prowess as a receiving back.

In the opening game of the season, McCarthy found Jones downfield for a touchdown but he got hurt in the following game and only returned against Los Angeles. His presence could be enormous for the young QB to get on track with easy completions.

Answers against blitzes

In his first two NFL contests, JJ McCarthy had a rough time when facing at least five rushers. He was blitzed on 17 drop-backs, completed just six passes, threw two interceptions and was sacked three times.

Overall, opponents have not blitzed the Vikings very often — most likely because the Vikings have been trailing — but they have had the league’s second worst efficiency rating per TruMedia when facing the blitz. Carson Wentz only completed 48% of his passes and had a 66.7 QB rating versus extra rushers.

We can’t say that the answers aren’t built into KOC’s offense because last year Sam Darnold averaged 9.5 yards per attempt against the blitz with 12 TDs and 0 INT and a 123.3 QB rating. But one thing Darnold did have was a fairly consistent group of offensive linemen. The Vikings weren’t subbing linemen in and out constantly as they have been thus far this year. Assuming Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill will be ready to go against Detroit, they should be able to handle extra rushers better.

However, McCarthy and either Blake Brandel or Michael Jurgens will need to be sharp in terms of setting protections, especially in the hostile environment of Ford Field. Ryan Kelly has been deeply missed by the Vikings and his absence will likely continue to be felt at Detroit.

They also need better blocking in the backfield. Jordan Mason has a 37.4 PFF grade as a pass blocker in 40 snaps. CJ Ham’s status could matter significantly as he has become a weapon for them as a third-down pass protector over the last three years.

Answers against man coverage