What Mike Sando's QB Tiers tell us about the Vikings' situation
Kyler Murray and JJ McCarthy didn't get rave reviews but there is a lot to learn from what the NFL thinks of them
By Matthew Coller
Every year, The Athletic’s Mike Sando polls 50 current and former coaches and executives in the NFL about the current crop of quarterbacks and has them rank every QB from Tier 1 (elite) through Tier 5 (backup).
Let’s have a look at what the QB Tiers tell us about the challenges that await the Minnesota Vikings’ defense this year from opposing quarterbacks…
Vikings quarterback schedule
Week 1, Week 10: Jordan Love (Tier 2, 10th)
Brian Flores has won more battles than he’s lost against Jordan Love in his career but last year the Packers’ QB did take a step forward in his efficiency. He had his lowest interception rate, best Success Rate, best PFF grade, best passer rating and best ESPN QBR mark in 2025.
The biggest question is whether head coach Matt LaFleur will ever lean into the passing game. For all the efficiency stats, Love only ranked 16th in passing yards per game.
Week 2, Week 18: Caleb Williams (Tier 2, 11th)
The league is buying Caleb Williams’ success from 2025. The executives quoted focused on his high-end plays, particularly in clutch moments last season. However, the numbers do suggest that there’s work to be done if Williams is going to elevate to a top quarterback. Last season, the only quarterback in the NFL that had a lower Completion Percentage Over Expected was Jets backup Brady Cook.
The Vikings have seen Williams’ freakish playmaking ability in several of their battles with Chicago over the last two years. It will never be an easy matchup with him.
Week 3: Baker Mayfield (Tier 2, 14th)
Mayfield is a classic mid-pack quarterback. He can look like the best quarterback on any given Sunday but will also have long stretches of mediocrity. An offensive coordinator told Sando that he’s “the streakiest player of all time” and the numbers from last year really tell that story. He started 6-3 with a 99.3 passer rating and then finished 2-6 with a 78.3 rating.
The question for the Vikings is which version of Mayfield will they see in Week 3?
Week 4: Malik Willis (Tier 4, 29th)
Willis landed a substantial contract based on only 89 passes over two years with the Packers. But those 89 passes went really well. He completed 70 and threw six touchdowns to zero interceptions with an incredible 10.9 yards per attempt. Willis also added 262 yards rushing on 42 carries (6.2 yards per attempt).
Evaluators don’t know what to think about him yet, particularly because the Dolphins are so short on talent around him. The Vikings will have to be prepared for his legs, even if Miami’s supporting cast isn’t filled with hosehold names.
Week 5: Tyler Shough (Tier 3, 26th)
The Saints are excited about the prospect of finding their next long-term starting QB and NFL evaluators seem to think Shough has some positive signs going for him. One former exec told Sando that he has “poise” and a coach pointed out his toughness. The numbers were strong for a rookie QB with Shough ranking 19th by PFF and had a 91.6 passer rating.
Week 7: Daniel Jones (Tier 3, 21st)
Before tearing his Achilles, Jones got off to a really good start with the Colts, winning eight of 13 games with a 100.2 passer rating and leading the NFL with a 52.0% Success Rate. It looked like he found himself after being “a little bit broken” in New York, as one coordinator told The Athletic.
The question is whether it was a small sample size or if this is the real Daniel Jones and what he will look like when he returns. He only threw eight interceptions but ranked 32nd (of 45) in PFF’s Turnover-Worthy plays. So his box score numbers were better than the process data.
Week 8, Week 15: Jared Goff (Tier 2, 8th)
Goff has lived in the range of a Tier 2 QB for the last three years after dipping during the end of his time in Los Angeles. He is the definition of Tier 2 quarterback because he is consistently excellent with the right pieces around him, leading top-five offenses for four straight seasons. But last year we saw against the Vikings what happened when he didn’t have the requisite offensive line or play calling. Goff wasn’t able to make up the difference and the Vikings dominated Detroit’s offense.
Will they get their O-line solidiied this year? Will Drew Petzing have better answers to the Vikings’ pass rush? Those things will determine Goff’s success or failure vs. the purple because when he’s well protected and has a good gameplan he’s lights out.
Week 9: Josh Allen (Tier 1, 2nd)
Everyone has Monday Night Football in Week 9 circled on their calanders because of the matchup between Flores and the league’s (second) best quarterback. You could certainly argue that nobody has been more unstoppable over the past few seasons than Allen. Get your popcorn ready.
Week 11: Brock Purdy (Tier 2, 11th)
In quarterback rankings, Purdy is always a challenging evaluation because Kyle Shanahan is such a good offensive play caller but when a QB consistently moves the needle and is a playmaker outside of structure like Purdy is, it’s time to get them credit. Purdy has lost both starts against Flores’ defense but he made some outstanding throws along the way and gave the defense problems with his legs.
The question this year will be about whether Purdy has the weapons to challenge the Vikings’ defense. With Brandon Aiyuk gone, Jauan Jennings gone and Ricky Pearsall out for the year, it could be a rocky ride.
Week 12: Tua Tagovailoa (Tier 3, 26th) or Michael Penix Jr. (Tier 4, 32nd)
Outside of Cleveland, this has to be the most bleak QB situation in the NFL. It’s hard to believe that Tagovailoa will have a better situation than what he had in Miami, though the Falcons do have playmakers. If Penix Jr. is under center, he has the arm talent to make a ton of throws but his accuracy hasn’t been consistent in the NFL and he’s coming off another ACL injury.
Week 13: Bryce Young (Tier 3, 22nd)
Based on his box score stats and PFF grades, Young might be getting a little too much credit after going to the playoffs at 8-9 last season. He ranked 26th by PFF grade and 29th by passer rating. He has shown capable of putting together big games and impressive downfield throws but he has struggled with the rest. He had a seven game stretch last year where he didn’t reach 200 yards.
Flores vs. Young at US Bank Stadium, on paper, should be a big edge. But one coach who faced Carolina last year told Sando that Young’s command and confidence were much better last year and it was an “eye-opener.”
Week 14: Drake Maye (Tier 2, 8th)
It is a little surprising that Maye didn’t make Tier 1 after finishing second in the MVP voting next to Matthew Stafford. He put together the No. 1 season in the NFL in passer rating and nearly threw for 4,400 yards. A defensive coach told Sando, “what are they really asking him to do?” and noted that his deep ball was at the center of his success. It’s hard to see that disappearing though because the Patriots acquired Vikings nemesis AJ Brown. Maye will be one of their toughest challenges, especially on a short week.
Week 16: Jayden Daniels (Tier 2, 13th)
Daniels had a rough sophomore season. When he was on the field, it didn’t look the same as his breakout rookie season and he suffered an arm injury that kept him out for the majority of the year. The QB Tiers panelists are seemingly skeptical as one person told Sando that Daniels is a Tier 3 QB when he isn’t running. That’s pretty harsh after he had a 100.1 passer rating in 2024.
Flores demolished Daniels last year head-to-head but this might be a different story since he was coming off an injury and Washington was a disaster. David Blough, the new OC, is a former Viking and may give Daniels a better shot.
Week 17: Geno Smith (Tier 4, 30th)
There is no way Smith is as bad as he looked for the Raiders last season but he is almost 36 years old and has taken a ton of hits through the years. Will he actually be the Jets’ quarterback by Week 17?
Though we can’t count out that New York has improved their team by quite a bit this offseason.
Splits:
— Vikings play one Tier 1 quarterback, Josh Allen
— 10 games against Tier 2 quarterbacks, including all NFC North games
— Four games against Tier 3 QBs*
— Two games against Tier 4 QBs*
*If Tua starts for Atlanta
Bottom line:
If the Vikings are going to have a top-notch defense this year, they are going to have to earn it. They are very rarely getting matchups against QBs without a lot of promise and the majority of the schedule is against proven quarterbacks with quality teams.
Well, this is what they brought Brian Flores back for.
Mid-pack QBs won a lot
Kyler Murray ranked 23rd in the NFL, squarely in the middle of the third tier. Interestingly, quite a few other players that were in his range had success in 2025. The Tier 3 QBs that are just ahead of him included Bo Nix, Aaron Rodgers, CJ Stroud, Daniel Jones, and Bryce Young — all except Jones were in the playoffs and Jones won eight of his 13 starts.
They all achieved winning records in different ways. Nix and Stroud had top-five defenses. Jones had one of the NFL’s top run games. Rodgers pulled out seven of the team’s 10 wins by one score. Young limited his miscues with only 27 sacks and rose to the occasion in big games against the Falcons, Rams and Bucs.
What does this say about Murray? That the route to the postseason is probably going to be dictated by the things around him. In Sando’s article, he mentions that the Cardinals ranked 31st in Expected Points Added from their defense and special teams since 2023. If Brian Flores’ defense thrives and the run game improves, he could perform similarly to previous years and get much better results in the win-loss column.
However, if the Vikings are a flawed team, then the only other path to making the postseason will be clutch play from the QB. Murray has 13 career game-winning drives but only a 78.3 passer rating when his team is trailing with four minutes or less remaining in the game for his career. That would need to change if the Vikings can’t close out games with their defense and run game.
Murray has been considered a Tier 2 QB in the past
One of the nice features of Sando’s piece is its historical data. Murray’s numbers show that the NFL thought he was a second-tier quarterback going into the 2021 and 2022 seasons with average votes of 2.44 and 2.32 and going into 2025 that hadn’t dropped off a cliff as he was at 2.68.
It’s interesting that it would drop this year considering he only played five games and he’s joining a better team that he’s ever had in Arizona.
It may speak to the upside that the league saw in Murray earlier in his career and the ceiling that could still exist if things go his way in Minnesota.
“He will have better players around him than he ever had in Arizona,” an offensive coach told Sando.
Murray future contract
There is one quarterback who signed a recent contract that could be a comparable for Murray who is in his same tier: Daniel Jones. The Colts’ QB, ranked 21st, signed a two-year, $88 million contract this offseason to remain Indy’s starter.
There were some mitigating circumstances i.e. the Achilles injury that Jones suffered last season. But it’s hard to find other comparable situtions outside of Sam Darnold signing his three-year contract for $33.5 million with the Seattle Seahawks last year.
If Murray plays well with the Vikings, he may have other options but the price might not be as high as some are projecting. There are only 12 QBs over $50 million per year, per OverTheCap.com. Here’s where they rank by QB Tier: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (tie), 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 16th, 17th.
The 17th best is Jalen Hurts, who has two Super Bowl appearances and one ring.
There are zero third-tier quarterbacks making $50 million with Jones being the highest of them all at $44 million per year. And the Bucs are currently not extending Baker Mayfield, who ranks 14th.
Based on how the league has paid QBs lately, it doesn’t seem likely that, even on the open market, there would be offers for Murray that push higher than Jones or that are longer term than a couple years.
McCarthy’s trade value might not be high
The league gave McCarthy one third-tier vote, 39 fourth tier and 10 fifth tier. Out of 35 QBs, he ranked 34th.
“Football looks hard for him,” an offensive coach told Sando.
While McCarthy could absolutely turn a corner as he gets more and more development time, the league doesn’t seem to be giving him any grace.
If McCarthy does not win the job, which looks very unlikely right now, then the odds of trading him for any valuable return would appear low based on what the rest of the NFL thinks of him.
The Vikings may be better off keeping him and hoping to see more growth.