What it's like on the sidelines when coaches go for fourth down
Vikings coaches explain how they prepare to convert fourth downs with play calls and communication
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — Against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday the Minnesota Vikings did not get off to the start they wanted.
After fumbling on the first play from scrimmage, the Chiefs went down the field and scored to take an early lead. On the next possession the Vikings moved the ball to the Kansas City 43-yard line where they faced third-and-5. Quarterback Kirk Cousins threw an incomplete pass, leaving them with a fourth-down decision. Head coach Kevin O’Connell waved for the offense to stay on the field. Cousins converted on a throw to Jordan Addison and the Vikings got on the board with a field goal. The conversion was central to bringing the score back to a tie game by halftime.
A decade ago, that decision may have drawn second guessing in the moment. The broadcast would have wondered if O’Connell was being too aggressive this early in the game. But in today’s NFL, he would have been questioned for punting it away. Per Pro-Football reference there were 759 fourth-down runs or passes in 2022. In 2012, that number was only 470. This year already teams have attempted 216 fourth-down tries and 22 teams have converted at least 50% for first downs.
Through five weeks the Vikings have gone for fourth downs 11 times and converted eight. That’s more than they went for fourth down during the entire 2017 season by four attempts.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who called the fourth down shots from 2019-2021 as head coach of the Miami Dolphins, said the explosion of attempts is a result of teams leaning on the data now more than ever.
“The analytics obviously has a lot to do with [the increase in fourth down attempts],” Flores said. “Why not go with the percentages?”
Of course, nobody thinks it’s as simple as looking at a fourth down probability calculator and doing whatever it says. There is a lot more that goes into it, starting before the game begins when O’Connell meets with game management coordinator Ryan Cordell before every game and talk about areas of the field and situations where they could choose to be more aggressive.
When the Vikings cross the 50-yard line, it becomes potential four-down territory. Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels consults with O’Connell about where he thinks they could try a field goal based on what he has seen in warm-ups, which is particularly relevant on the road.
“There’s a lot of sideline communication that goes into it,” Daniels said. “I’m always giving KO a make-it-versus-take-it line of where I feel good and confident for Greg [Joseph] to be able to hit a field goal. The down-and-distance plays a role in that, where we’re at in the football game, who we’re playing against, how our offense is playing against their defense and do we feel good about going for it and having a short field to defend.”
Once they have reached the point on the field where it may be a four-down situation, the menu of third down plays that they put together before the game based on down-and-distances becomes for both third and fourth down and the play calling mentality shifts on third-and-long to keep some of the intermediate plays involved.
“As the play caller Kevin knows he’s got two downs here so maybe it is a third-and-10 and maybe you call something that isn’t necessarily always trying to make sure we get all 10.”
O’Connell communicates with Cousins that he has two downs to work with so he doesn’t have to force the ball into a bad place on third down or feel the need to risk a sack by holding onto the ball longer than he wants.
“I think Kirk [Cousins] needs to know if I view it as a four down mentality, which may help with his decision making,” O’Connell said. “If it’s a third-and-9 and we’re kind of in that [four down] area, I’d love him to be aggressive and try to get it if there is a progression there that’s there but [rather] than trying to force it maybe just putting the ball in play, checking it down, using his legs and getting it to that more manageable number so then our whole playbook is at our disposal, including kind of the rest of our situational plan that we’ve kind of practiced and then we can just rely on the execution in that moment.”
And then it comes down to the actual decision. O’Connell has the analytics in mind but he’s factoring in how his team is performing and his sense for how much a conversion could swing the game. In the first quarter against the Chiefs, O’Connell felt they needed a jolt after the fumble and that the game could get away from them if they gave Patrick Mahomes a chance to go up by two scores.
“There’s been a couple of those where I just decided that it’s a critical moment — maybe we didn’t get off to the best of starts with an early turnover or whatever it was — and I’ll put it on our guys and our group to execute in that moment and try to earn a new sets of downs,” O’Connell said. “We’ve talked about… how powerful it is for our offense when we can get that set of downs.”
The decision has to be made by the instant that the third down play is over. There can’t be any confusion about who’s supposed to be on the field or struggles to get the play call into the Cousins.
“You’ll normally see me making sure everyone knows immediately that we’re going for it, no wasting time with guys coming to the sideline then going back out, using as much of the clock as we can,” O’Connell said.
It isn’t just the offensive side of the ball that’s facing difference-making plays on fourth down. Flores’ defense has to be ready any time the other team crosses the 50, which means avoiding getting caught thinking that the possession is over.
“You should celebrate a third-down stop but you gotta get ready for the fourth down and that’s the kind of message that I give to our guys,” Flores said. “Move onto the next play.”
With the Vikings generally refusing to play in any other type of game than barn-burning one-score contests, conversions and stops on fourth down become of utmost importance and it appears going forward there are only going to be more and more of those game-changing situations.
“Fourth down is a possession down and something that could change the tide in a game one way or the other and we’ve been on both sides of that this year,” Flores said. “It’s something that’s happening by every team every week and we have to be ready to perform in that moment.”
This was fantastic. A perfect example of how data is a tool but the people involved will always have to use their knowledge of the players' abilities and situations (plus some intuition). Love this behind the scenes stuff!