What does a bounce-back year look like for Justin Jefferson?
A down year was still over 1,000 yards but that's not Jefferson's standard. What should we expect in 2026?
By Matthew Coller
There is interesting data everywhere, if you’re looking for it. One place that I like to look is Mike Clay’s projections on ESPN.
Clay does an absurd amount of research and uses both data and his own knowledge to come up with rational predictions for players.
Another place to use as an expectation setter is FanDuel. Not just because they sponsor my podcast (disclosure alert!) but the betting markets open up discussions about where the bar should be set for players and teams.
So I was curious about what the fantasy and gambling worlds think Justin Jefferson is going to do in 2026.
Clay predicted 111 receptions for 1,375 yards and seven touchdowns. FanDuel set its over-under for Jefferson’s yardage at 1,150.5.
I had Clay on the podcast a few days ago. Here’s what he said about his Jefferson projection:
“I projected Jefferson to have a very good bounce back season,” Clay said. “It’s not quite his ceiling. I think part of that is Kyler is going to pull it down and scramble.”
Clay is not high enough on Kyler Murray to predict Jefferson to get back to the 1,500+ mark, where he was in 2024 with Sam Darnold, but he did note that Murray has pumped his No. 1 target the football.
“I don’t think they are going to have a high scoring offense… I do think there’s enough there for Jefferson to have a good season,” Clay said.
Let’s dive into some of Clay’s reasoning.
Will Murray’s scrambling impact how often Jefferson can get the ball?
In 2024, Murray scrambled 40 times out of a total 614 drop-backs, or 6.5% of drop-backs. Last year’s leader in total scrambles was Drake Maye, who took off 10.1% of the time. Murray finished with the ninth most pass attempts in 2024.
If things play out similarly with the Vikings, his scrambling shouldn’t have a major impact on Jefferson’s production. That will only be the case of the Vikings aim for a lower volume passing attack, which could be the case if JJ McCarthy wins the job. Last season, McCarthy only averaged 24.3 pass attempts per game. That translates to just 413 throws over a 17-game season. Mid-game injuries played a role but even in McCarthy’s best passing performance vs. Dallas he only threw 24 times.
Clay’s note about Murray pushing the ball to his top targets holds up. In 2020, DeAndre Hopkins’ only full season with Arizona, he was on the receiving end of 28.6% of the total passes that Murray threw. In 2024, Jefferson was the target for 28.2% of Sam Darnold’s throws.
While it’s different with a tight end than with receivers, Trey McBride was clearly the best player on Arizona’s offense in 2024. He got 27.2% of the total throws from Murray.
Problem solved then, right? Jefferson will get 150+ targets and get right back the Offensive Player of the Year candidate?
Some of the details when we dig a little deeper into Murray’s playing style leave you wondering a little bit more about Jefferson’s target share.
I ran across this statistic from NFL Researcher on Twitter/X. No receiver has had more yards on throws that went 10+ yards down field since 2023 than Jefferson.
Obviously a major part of that stat is Darnold leading the NFL in deep passing yards in 2024. But that’s how O’Connell has wanted to deploy Jefferson during their time together. They did some dinking and dunking last year to get the ball in his hands but he clearly wanted more intermediate throws his way.
In 2024, Murray only ranked 23rd out of 42 quarterbacks in passes that traveled between 10-19 yards through the air. In 2023, he was also 23rd and in 2021 he was 27th.
However, Murray did have success when throwing there. He ranked 11th by PFF grade in 2024 on intermediate passes and had a 104.1 quarterback rating.
Deep passing is a tricky beast when it comes to analyzing Murray. Some folks have put out dubious stats about him being the worst deep passer in the league in recent years. That’s not really true. In 2024, PFF ranked him 25th out of 43 QBs but his passer rating was 33rd. The gap is probably explained by receiver talent.
Throws over 20 yards downfield also make up a small percentage of passes in comparison to short and intermediate. In 2024, the top graded deep throwers were Michael Penix Jr., Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Russell Wilson. The top intermediate passers were Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.
But if our main focus is Jefferson’s output, it’s really hard to say whether the chicken or the egg is responsible. Sam Darnold in 2021 with Carolina ranked 29th of 38 in PFF grade on 20+ yard passes and then he had more yards than anyone else on those throws and was 12th by PFF grade in 2024.
It’s also notable that deep passing has gone down in recent years. There were only four QBs with over 1,000 yards on 20+ yard passes last year but there were 10 in 2021, when Murray had his best deep throwing season (No. 1 PFF grade).
Defensive trends, schemes, receiver talent… it appears that they all play into the bombs more than the intermediate throws. That could mean Jefferson brings Murray’s deep passing back to life. Or it could mean that the way defenses are playing these days has negated one of the best talents of his early career.
Another part of Murray’s game that is questionable is throwing over the middle. Not that he’s incapable, more so that it just doesn’t happen a lot. In 2024, he only threw 41 passes over the middle in intermediate areas of the field. He completed 30 of them though and had a 87.8 PFF grade on those throws and a 123.3 QB rating.
If we compare Jefferson’s routes from 2024 to 2025, we can see how important intermediate throws to the middle of the field are to his success.
Per TruMedia, in 2025, Jefferson only ran in-breaking routes 7.1% of the time and did not have great success in doing so. In 2024, he ran those same routes 15.6% of the time and had an elite Success Rate.
2025
2024
Pretty much everything else was the same.
Something has to give. If Murray is the QB, he will need to trust those throws more often. Kevin O’Connell has designed the offense to clear out space for Jefferson but it only works if there is timing and belief from the quarterback. In Kirk Cousins’ first training camp, Cousins remarked that O’Connell was pushing him to make throws where he thought there might be too tight of windows. Just believe that it’s going to open. It took until Year 2 to do that.
Maybe one of the reasons Darnold worked so darn well is that he had the cannon to throw into those windows and he never lacked belief in his arm. In fact, he had too much belief in it sometimes.
The other option would be to make an adjustment to the way Jefferson is used. We saw that in spurts last season. O’Connell got him the ball on more screens than ever and short out routes.
But is that really the ideal way to play? Jefferson’s strength isn’t yards after catch. He’s a mastermind route runner and a freakish contested catch monster downfield. Turning him into Brandon Powell isn’t really what they are looking for.
At the same time, Jefferson has been pretty malleable over the years. In 2021, 25% of his targets came on throws between 0-10 yards. In 2022, that number jumped to 38% and it was 36% with Darnold in 2024. It’s not like his yellow gloves fall off if he has to make plays underneath. Last season he scored a 91.4 PFF grade on short throws, despite the fact his QBs struggled to make them connect.
When it comes to Jefferson’s actual production, a good percentage will be determined by the game script.
When he won Offensive POY in 2022, 776 of his 1,809 yards came when his team was losing. The Vikings were in one shootout after another that year and they had no other choice but to push the ball to Jefferson. If they were winning by two touchdowns in fourth quarters ever week, he would have been just as great as a player and his yardage totals would have been lower.
Is the Vikings defense going to be as good this year as it was over the last two seasons? If not, more shootouts. If the QB or run game can’t close out games by going up two scores late, more back-and-forth in the fourth quarter.
Numbers are fickle like that. They tell a lot of the story but not all of it.
If Jefferson doesn’t hit 1,500 yards this year, it’s unlikely that it will be because he didn’t run routes as well or catch the ball as well as he did in 2022. It will either be because things went great and they didn’t need to force feed him or because things needed altering to fit the QB and it wasn’t possible to post those types of numbers again.
You can go ahead and whisper to yourself that Darnold was probably the perfect quarterback for his skillset.
Not interested in a lengthy advertisement for FanDuel.
Vikings wasted a precious year of Jefferson’s playing career. His peak probably aligned with Sam’s two years ago. Now everyone is two years older, they are probably still good enough to be a playoff team. The Vikings need to tear it down and rebuild. Hopefully the new leadership will understand the importance of scouting young talent and build a championship team.