What Coulda Been Week: Quarterback edition
We kick off What Coulda Been Week on Purple Insider by talking about some great Vikings QB what-ifs
Welcome to What Coulda Been Week.
Over the next five days, we will be looking through the history of a franchise that has always had something in the way. We’ll break down the what-ifs and the burning questions throughout Minnesota Vikings’ history and try to imagine how things might have played out differently. For our first edition, ranking the quarterback What Coulda Beens…
By Matthew Coller
Where do we even begin with the What Coulda Beens at the quarterback position for the Minnesota Vikings?
The Vikings have one of the most unique QB histories in the entire NFL because it includes a litany of impressive performances but rarely on a sustainable basis. So let’s have a look at the 10 most interesting what-ifs based on Vikings quarterbacks…
1) What if Daunte Culpepper didn’t suffer a knee injury?
In 1999 the Vikings received a lot of criticism for picking Culpepper instead of Jevon Kearse. That noise disappeared by the end of his 2000 season when the 11th overall pick from UCF went 11-5 and led the NFL in touchdown passes.
After underwhelming 2001 and 2002 seasons, he turned a corner and became one of the NFL’s best QBs over the next two years. The only QB with a better Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt than Culpepper during the 2003 and 2004 seasons was Peyton Manning. The only teams with more passing touchdowns during Culpepper’s 2000-2004 stint were Green Bay and Indianapolis. And no quarterback ran for more yards or touchdowns during that time.
It wasn’t all perfect with Culpepper but he was just 28 years old when a knee injury sent his career on a tailspin. To put that in context, Kirk Cousins was in his second year as a starter at that age.
The possibilities are endless when it comes to Culpepper’s what-ifs. What would he have been able to do with rosters in 2007 and 2008 that actually had quality defenses? Would he have taken them to the Super Bowl in 2009 when the roster peaked during that decade? Would he have been considered in the same breath as Manning? Would he have been considered one of the most exciting QBs to ever play?
There are plenty of possible pitfalls when we talk about what coulda been with Daunte, including the fact that there was already disenchantment between Culpepper and the Vikings by 2005 over his contract. However, we have learned over the time since the Wilfs have owned the Vikings that they have been willing to resolve such issues. With his injury, it’s also hard not to think about how modern medicine might have given him a better chance to return as his old self.
Sadly, we’ll never know what Culpepper could have become…
2) What if the Vikings hadn’t traded Fran Tarkenton?
What’s ironic about the QB Abyss of the past 40 years or so is that it started out with a stroke of luck in drafting Tarkenton in 1961. The Vikings had traded their top pick for veteran George Shaw but the third-rounder Tarkenton quickly took the job away and battled through some rough years on the expansion Vikings.
Just as the roster was about to become one of the best in the NFL in the late 60s, the Vikings found a way to alienate their great QB. In 1966, coach Norm Van Brocklin benched Tarkenton after a five-interception game in a 32-31 loss to the Lions. The next week backup Ron Vander Kelen got smacked by the Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings ended the year losing five of six and Tarkenton demanded a trade.
Three years later, with Tarkenton in New York and Bud Grant at the helm in Minnesota, the Vikings went to the Super Bowl behind the No. 1 defense and the No. 1 offense, led by a magical year from Joe Kapp. After the ‘69 season, however, Kapp got in a contract dispute with the Vikings and left for the Patriots.
The Vikings turned to Gary Cuozzo, who produced a 59.6 quarterback rating over the following two seasons. They went one-and-done in the playoffs in 1970 and 1971 despite putting together two of the most outrageously good defensive seasons in NFL history.
In 1970, the Purple People Eater defense gave up 143 points, which was 59 fewer than the next best defense in the NFL. They allowed only six passing touchdowns, picked off 28 passes and sacked opposing QBs on 12% of drop backs. They also allowed only four rushing touchdowns.
While Jerry Burns dragged a halfway decent offense out of his group that year, Cuozzo went just 9-for-27 in the Vikings’ divisional playoff matchup against the 49ers and lost 17-14.
The following season the defense was every bit as marvelous. The 1971 Vikings gave up 139 points and intercepted 27 passes to just 10 touchdowns allowed. Their passing game, however, ranked 25th and they suffered a similar divisional-round defeat with Cuozzo and Bob Lee combining for four interceptions against the Cowboys.
When Tarkenton returned, the Vikings still had extremely good rosters and reached the Super Bowl three times behind remarkable years from their QB but they were never quite as good as those 1970 and 1971 clubs on defense.
Not only are we left to wonder if they would have won a Super Bowl had Tarkenton not been benched and subsequently traded, it’s also worth thinking about where he would stand in NFL history among the greatest QBs ever. During his time with the Giants, Tarkenton went 33-36 and never played in the postseason. He assuredly would have put together a better record than that from ‘69-’71 and may have ultimately ended up being considered the greatest QB of all time for many years to come.
When Tarkenton retired after the 1978 season, he was the all time leader in touchdowns and passing yards by 7,000 over the next best (Unitas) and only Starr, Staubach, Dawson, Jurgensen and Graham had higher QB ratings. Those numbers might have been even better with the Vikings and a single ring would have solidified his place in history.
Alas.
3) What if the Vikings found a franchise QB in the 90s?
In the 1990s Denny Green led the Vikings to four offenses that ranked in the top five in points scored and he did so with four different quarterbacks: Rich Gannon, Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Jeff George. Brad Johnson also had an 11th ranked season in 1997 and the ‘94 club was seventh in scoring.
The “What Coulda Been” in this case is more broad than a bad trade or injury, it’s more of a question of how good the Vikings could have been with a consistently good quarterback.
From 1990 to 1999, the Vikings had the sixth best team quarterback rating, third most touchdown passes and fourth most passing yards despite their game of musical chairs at the QB position.
All the quarterbacks they had were good, they just didn’t last long. Gannon proved later that he wasn’t given enough time. He made the Pro Bowl four times with the Raiders and won MVP in 2002.
Moon had two terrific years but was 40 years old and injured in 1996.
Johnson went 15-8 with a solid 86.8 rating in his first three years but couldn’t stay healthy and lost his job to Cunningham in 1998. Johnson went on to win the Super Bowl with Tampa Bay.
Cunningham was marvelous in ‘98 but couldn’t sustain his performance in 1999 and George was not a long-term solution despite his highly entertaining highlight reel in ‘99.
I wondered if there might have been a QB they missed on along the way — somebody who could have taken them beyond one NFC Championship appearance in ‘98 during a decade of success. The answer: Not really.
They didn’t have a first round pick in 1990, 1991 or 1992 and then drafted Robert Smith 21st overall in 1993. The next QB taken was Billy Joe Hobert in the third. In 1994, they picked Todd Steussie and the next QB was picked in the fourth round (different times, folks, different times). After Derrick Alexander in 1995, Kordell Stewart was the following QB in the second round. They could have picked journeyman Tony Banks in the ‘96 draft or Jim Drukenmiller in ‘97 or Charlie Batch in ‘98.
Only Stewart had the possibility of maybe making things interesting, though he hit all sorts of bumps along the road at QB in Pittsburgh and couldn’t take them to a Super Bowl.
So the Vikings probably got the most out of the quarterbacks they had, in large part because of Cris Carter, Jake Reed and eventually Randy Moss but you can’t help but wonder what their offensive numbers would have looked like with a consistently excellent QB at the helm during those years.
4) What if Tommy Kramer was healthy in 1987?
During the late 70s and early 80s the Vikings were transitioning from the Purple People Eaters teams to a new era behind their super fun quarterback Tommy Kramer, who put together nine game-winning drives in his first three seasons as starting QB on mostly middle-of-the-pack rosters. At the time, it must have felt like the Vikings were going from one great QB to the next but Kramer hit some unfortunate potholes, including an injury in 1983 and the hiring of the franchise’s worst head coach Les Steckel.
Kramer put together an incredible season in 1986 with a league-leading 92.6 QB rating and entered 1987 thinking the Vikings should be a serious contender. But he got hurt in the preseason and Wade Wilson started instead. Kramer got chances later in the year but often ended up being relieved by Wilson. That happened in the famous blowout game of New Orleans in the first round of the playoffs and then Wilson and Anthony Carter destroyed the favorite 49ers and came within a dropped pass versus Washington of reaching the Super Bowl.
While Kramer is remembered very favorably by Vikings fans from that era, they will always wonder what would have happened if the rosters around him in the early 80s would have been a little stronger and what coulda been if he had remained healthy in 1987. As great as Wilson played in the postseason, he was sacked eight times against Washington in the NFC title game and ended the game 19-for-39 with under 200 net yards and the Vikings scored just 10 points.
Could a healthy Kramer have found a way? We’ll never know…
5) What if Brett Favre didn’t throw an interception against the Saints?
Favre is the only player who lands on our list because of a single play but it’s one of the defining plays in the franchise’s history.
What makes this one fascinating is that you can spend days breaking down his interception on the final drive of the NFC Championship against the New Orleans Saints from a micro or macro perspective. In the micro, you can ask, what if the Vikings hadn’t committed a 12-men in the huddle penalty on the previous play? Would Ryan Longwell have hit a field goal from 56 to send the Vikings to the Super Bowl? If Favre checked down to Bernard Berrian or taken off running, would they have picked up enough to set up an easy kick for Longwell?
And then there’s the big picture. Would the Vikings have beaten the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl? Or would Favre have been too beaten up at that point to get them over the hump? Had Favre gone to the Super Bowl, would he have retired rather than coming back in 2010?
There’s also the part about the perception of Favre. Even with a Super Bowl ring, Favre’s career was defined in many ways by the big games that ended on his mistakes. The 2009 playoffs offered an opportunity for redemption for those errors.
6) What if Teddy Bridgewater never got hurt?
Very few preseason games end up being memorable but Teddy Bridgewater’s performance against the San Diego Chargers in 2016 will stick in Vikings fans’ heads as a lasting image of what Bridgewater could have become. In the lead up to the 2016 season, Bridgewater flashed more pop on his fastball, which had been a criticism of his first two seasons, and a confidence that suggested the team was becoming his to lead.
When he suffered a career-threatening knee injury, the Vikings missed out not only on an opportunity to see what Bridgewater would have become but also on two years of his rookie contract. How strong the team might have been in 2017 with additional cap space to spend and what he might have done under circumstances that turned Case Keenum into a top 10 quarterback are two of the many lingering questions from Bridgewater’s injury.
Bridgewater then added an additional What Coulda Been to the conversation when he returned from the injury in 2017 and then the Vikings elected to go in a different direction. His performances with New Orleans and Carolina haven’t been proof that he could have won with the Vikings over the last three years or that he couldn’t have been successful with another chance in purple.
7) What if Sam Bradford never got hurt?
In 2016, Sam Bradford played admirably for the Vikings after being acquired just days before the start of the season but following a full training camp in 2017 it appeared he was going to take off and become the QB that he was expected to be. In Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints, Bradford went 27-for-32 with 346 yards and three touchdowns. PFF graded his performance against the Saints a 92.7 out of 100, which was the highest single game score of his career.
The difference in talent between Keenum and Bradford was not insignificant, leaving us to wonder how the Vikings would have finished a 2017 season in which they had the No. 1 defense and one of the best offensive supporting casts in the NFL.
What type of numbers could Bradford have put up over that full season? Would he have gotten them one extra win and home field advantage throughout the playoffs? Would the Vikings have signed Bradford to a long-term contract had he been healthy in 2017?
A winning season from Bradford would have changed the public perception surrounding him as a former top pick. He was often the butt of jokes about his career record versus his career earnings but a trip to the NFC Championship or beyond would have left a lasting impression.
8) What if the Vikings made a different decision in 2018?
The book isn’t yet written on Kirk Cousins in Minnesota but the Vikings’ choice to sign him to the richest contract in NFL history (at the time) is one that will be looked at as a pivot point in the Mike Zimmer era.
The Vikings had three starting-caliber quarterbacks on the roster in 2017 and all three of them were free agents following the season. They were concerned that Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford’s past injuries were too risky and they felt Keenum’s 2017 success was more of a pop-up season than a sustainable model, so they elected to lure the former Washington quarterback rather than take other avenues, some of which included a possible trade for Alex Smith or pairing Keenum or Bridgewater with a QB in the draft.
They went with Cousins because the expectations for 2018 were set at “Super Bowl or Bust,” even if the team tried to downplay that narrative. But they brought back nearly the entire 2017 roster with hopes of getting to the next level. Three years later, the Vikings have only one playoff appearance and there are questions about what happens next if they don’t make a deep run this year.
It’s plausible that no matter which direction the Vikings would have taken that they wouldn’t have ended up repeating the 2017 success. However, Lamar Jackson was on the board when they picked Mike Hughes with the 30th pick in the draft. So you can’t count him as a part of Vikings what coulda been lore.
9) What if the Vikings traded up for Justin Fields or picked Mac Jones?
After video surfaced of the Vikings trying to trade up in the draft — reportedly to take Justin Fields — his career will be connected to the Vikings for the foreseeable future, especially since he landed in Minnesota’s division. Same goes for Alabama star Mac Jones. The Vikings chose to trade down in the draft rather than selecting Jones and then Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots took Jones with the next pick, again tying him to the Vikings and whatever happens next with Kirk Cousins.
Maybe these two quarterbacks will never become what-coulda-beens — but based on our list, it feels inevitable that they will.
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If Bradford played all 16 games in 2017 The Vikings win the the super bowl. Elite defense plus an MVP caliber QB? They would have been really hard to beat
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