What are reasonable expectations for Justin Jefferson?
Analysts believe he should be able to step in right away and thrive
*Photo courtesy of LSU Athletics
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Welcome to Reasonable Expectations Week here on Purple Insider where we will analyze four Minnesota Vikings subjects and what we expect from the 2020 season. For Part 1, we look at Vikings first-round draft pick Justin Jefferson, who is projected to be thrown into the fire as the No. 2 wide receiver behind Adam Thielen. How will he adapt to the NFL? What strengths will he take advantage of and which weaknesses could be problematic? Let’s have a look…
Translatable skills
During NFL Draft season we often hear “production versus projection” debates. In Jefferson’s case, he has both the wow numbers in college and the raw athleticism to project a high ceiling.
At LSU he caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns for the national champs and at the NFL Combine he ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, jumped an 80th percentile vertical and overall landed in the top five receivers in the class by Relative Athletic Scores, which combines height/weight and key Combine events to for a 1-10 rating. He scored a 9.69 out of 10.
As you have probably heard by now, Jefferson thrived in the slot, catching 109 of his 111 passes while lined up inside and he was not used at LSU as a deep receiver, only catching nine throws that traveled more than 20 yards in the air.
PFF’s Austin Gayle said that Jefferson’s usage will be a huge determining factor as to how well he translates into the NFL in 2020.
“Temper expectations if he plays 80% of his routes at outside receiver,” Gayle said on the Purple Insider Podcast. “They have to have him in condensed sets, they have to have him in the slot, they have to involve him against off coverage because press coverage is where he saw difficulty and struggled to separate against more athletic corners.”
Back in the day playing in the slot might have made you a No. 3 or 4 receiver only but in today’s NFL players like Chris Godwin of Tampa Bay and NFL receptions leader Michael Thomas spend a high percentage of their snaps in the slot.
“Maybe you project him to a similar [role] as Michael Thomas to where you’re winning on the short and intermediate levels of the field,” Gayle said. “Jefferson fits that mold more than a Will Fuller, Julio Jones or Tyreek Hill, these guys who can get down the field and win consistently….I compare Justin Jefferson to Cooper Kupp — a receiver that’s super crafty and has very, very good ball skills but plays the majority of his routes in the slot.”
We know that the NFL Draft can be a crap shoot but there are some skill sets that clearly carry over better than others. Having the route-running chops to create separation consistently has a high correlation with NFL success. Like most receivers coming out of college, Jefferson has some strengths and weaknesses as a route runner.
“He’s a crafty route runner,” Gayle said. “When given the opportunity on option routes, double-moves, he can sell head fakes and do a lot of creative things to create separation in one-on-one coverage. His problem is slants, curls, hitches, you aren’t seeing that separation on one-cut routes because he isn’t a quick-twitch athlete like other receivers who have dominated for a long time.”
Yahoo! Sports’ Matt Harmon, who created a project studying route running called Reception Perception, sees Jefferson as a player who shows a dedication to the route-running craft.
“I think he is that technician,” Harmon said. “He’s much more ready to play [than most rookies] but of course we have to say everything in COVID-adjusted terms like when is he going to be in the building and get with the team entirely but in a theoretical [situation] where all things are equal I think he has a chance to be an instant impact player because he knows how to run routes.”
Jefferson has two advantages that can help him make up for the adaptation curve in Year 1: Contested catches and YAC ability. While there are sure to be some eyerolls about contested catches because that was Laquon Treadwell’s M.O., Jefferson had a ridiculous 92% contested catch rate per PFF.
“I think he’s a high-point type of receiver,” Jones said on the Purple Insider Podcast. “He likes to go up and get the ball and fight for the ball at its highest point…he’s a red zone target. Throw it up to him at the back pylon and let him go get it. That’s something the Vikings probably need.”
When Jefferson gets the ball in his hands on short routes, he can turn them into big plays with his athleticism and a natural gift for making people miss. Per PFF, he had 25 forced missed tackles, fourth most in the draft.
“Justin Jefferson seems like a natural football player, a natural wide receiver,” Jones said. “A guy who has a knack for the game. He’s not like a track star playing football and you have a lot of those…he knows what to do with the ball in his hands like he’s been playing football since he was a little kid…this dude knows what he’s doing. When he catches the ball he turns into almost like a running back.”
So what does this leave us with? Clearly Jefferson isn’t flawless. But if Gary Kubiak finds sets and situations to either get him off the line of scrimmage clean or quickly get the ball into his hands, there’s a high chance of the LSU star having a productive season.
Recent history
How productive?
Because of the massive gap in athletic skill and complexity from college to the NFL, receiver isn’t the easiest position to make the leap. Recent history shows us that there aren’t many rookie receiver who have made a huge difference in their debut season. If we define a receiver as being an “impact player” within an offense by putting together at least 40 receptions and 500 yards, here are the number of rookie receivers who have made an impact:
2019 — 8
2018 — 5
2017 — 4
2016 — 7
However, when someone does become an “impact” receiver right away, it’s usually very impressive. The 2016 particularly welcomed in some instant stars with Michael Thomas catching 92 passes for 1,137 yards, Tyreek Hill gaining 860 yards from scrimmage and both Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd clearing 600 yards receiver.
The same could be said for last year’s class which featured AJ Brown gaining more than 20 yards per reception, Deebo Samuel managing a 120.2 rating when targeted and both Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf exceeding 900 yards.
And while Jefferson was the fourth receiver taken in a draft considered historically good, most of the aforementioned players where not the No. 1 player off the board.
Reasonable expectation
According to Gayle, PFF’s projection puts Jefferson at over 50 receptions and in the ballpark of 600 yards and four touchdowns.
Vikings Twitter was more conservative with the majority voting on our poll that he would end up between 40 and 50.
Things that are out of Jefferson’s control will be: How often the Vikings run, how often they throw to players like Irv Smith and Dalvin Cook and whether anyone else like Bisi Johnson or a surprise receiver emerges as a role player in the 2020 offense.
Still it’s reasonable to project that Kubiak will properly assess his skills and put him in situations to succeed and that Jefferson will land somewhere in the range of “impact” receivers.
Asking him to replace Stefon Diggs’s mastery over the position would not be under the category of Reasonable Expectations.
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I feel like he's going to light it up, but that's mostly a gut feeling, your research is probably a more accurate representation of what happens. Depends how well he gels with Couisins. You here if he's training at all with Theilan or Cousins?
I need to dive into this one, but so excited you have now posted to Google podcasts now!! Came right up searching for it, heading out for walk with podcast on.. thanks!!