21 Comments
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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

moving O’Neill to LT would be a mistake, the Vikings haven’t proved they can develop an offensive lineman in a long time, either move Cleveland to LT where he played in college, keep Reiff (not likely) or get a guy in the draft.

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Amen, Rob. O'Neill is one of the only things the Vikings have done right on the O-line. I'm wary of them messing with him.

I'd greatly prefer that the Vikings don't use the 1st round to grab a guard as imho, that position rarely deserves that kind of draft capital unless you're convinced there's a Randal McDaniel type HOF'er there for the taking. I do not believe that man exists in this year's draft.

That being said, I'm almost at the point where I don't want them to spend any draft capital on the O-Line given how absurdly bad they've been at finding and developing these guys. I'd much prefer that they pick up cheap, league-average FA's to fill those holes and add depth on the line.

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Picking a guard in the first round isn't going to help the offense overall, I read somewhere (I don't remember where) that preferentially teams want to pick a difference maker in the 1st round: QB, WR, CB, Edge unless as you pointed out a guy is a generational player at his position...Quenton Nelson comes to mind. The run blocking (Cook helps no doubt) is fine but getting the offensive line up to league average for pass blocking would make a huge difference in scoring.

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It's clear a team needs two good tackles, or the K. Macks and Z. Smiths will line up over the weak link all game. RT is solved, it's preferable to avoid mucking that up.

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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

Count me in as someone that would prefer to see O'Neil stay at RT. If only because this is a team that can't seem to help itself when it comes to forcing OL personnel to play at something other than their natural position. Draft a guard? Move him to tackle. Draft a tackle? Move him to guard, ideally to the opposite side of the line. Draft a swing tackle? Move him to linebacker.

On a more serious note, as Matthew rightly states, so much of what the Vikings do in free agency is dependent on how they handle Reiff. I'd hate to see them let him go, but keeping him all but ensures there will be no major signings in FA. Although I would contend that this won't be the worst thing in the world if they don't.

There should be a ton of bargain players available in FA with the salary cap being lowered. Supplementing the defense with quality 1-2 million a year players that are league average would be a nice boost for this defense, not to mention just acquiring a league average right guard.

Now, I firmly believe that acquiring that upgrade at RG won't result in significant growth for this offense without a philosophy change on the part of one Mike Zimmer, but you've got to get that RG first and I'd greatly prefer that we find him in FA rather than the draft.

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founding

If I was Reiff and/or his agent I'd hit free agency this year, the Vikings did him wrong by waiting so long last year to cut him or force a pay cut.

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And Sam, my apologies. I referred to Matthew in my comment instead of you. Old habits die hard.

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No worries, you're good! It seems like most readers are like you: They'd prefer O'Neill stay put.

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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

Thanks for the thorough examination Sam. I reread Ezra Cleveland's profile in PFF's 2020 Draft Guide, which highlighted just how good he was in college at LT. Know it's college and not the pros, but with O'Neill performing so well at RT I hope they give Cleveland every opportunity to develop at LT and keep O'Neill where he is.

As you said, Sam, RT matters when you look at the number of great pass rushers on that side of the line. Cam Jordan? Kalil Mack? Those are a couple beasts. Our own Danielle Hunter is another prime example. With O'Neill on the right it ain't broke so don't fix it.

As far as Guard options you've outlined Vikngs own players and also a few free agent options in other articles. Nothing special outside of maybe Scherff (who to me is injured too much to give big money to) and Thuney, but Vikings can't afford "special" anyway. Go in with Jones at one spot, find one or two FAs to compete at the other and like you say in another article someone in the first 3 rounds of the draft and go from there.

I know it feels weird how Vikings bounce guys' positions, but there are OTs projected to be really good zone Guards like Vera-Tucker, Jalen Mayfield, James Hudson, and Royce Newman (they could also compete with Cleveland for an OT spot). PFF's Mike Renner now saying Wyatt Davis is on the line between second and third round. Kendrick Green is great zone fit in third or fourth. Unlikely that Vikings go O-line in the first so V-T is likely out, but at least there are possibilities.

I know I'm jumping the gun on the draft, but given the cap situation and the free agent options it looks like it needs to be solved through a combo platter. Main thing is just get some better options than Dozier and Samia. That doesn't seem too much to wish for.

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Thanks for the nuanced comment! You're right: Improving the guard play around these tackles is huge. It's a shame the Vikings didn't hit a home run (at least not yet) with any of their interior picks (i.e., Elflein, Bradbury, Cleveland) because the tackles have been pleasantly reliable, yet nobody would really say the Vikings have had a strong offensive line except *maybe* the Keenum year.

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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

Great article Sam lots of major decisions before the league year starts

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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

Good analysis, Sam. I believe they should leave him at RT, but as you point out, what about LT? Listening to you and Matthew chat on the podcast this morning about King's Watson article and the possibilities made my head spin. Matthew's chess master mind and your in-depth knowledge made some very valid points, especially on the seven year age difference between Watson and Cousins. Listening to the PI podcasts has made me appreciate how the formula for running a successful NFL franchise is incredibly complex: Identifying draft/free agent talent; having quality coaching staff; making smart use of your pay cap dollars; the timing of player shelf life, contract expiration and decline in production vs making the run for the SB. Throw in the uncontrollable variables such as strength of schedule and unexpected visits by the injury grim reaper, things can go into the crapper quickly. Thank you to you and Matthew for providing thought provoking insight into the NFL... SKOL!!!!

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Feb 23, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

Never thought they would’ve moved Cleveland in the first place, but if he takes progresses and takes the necessary next step, they’ve solidified the right side. Moving guys around never appealed to me as it just creates another hole on the line. Keep guys where they are, and spend on FA or develop draft pick behind Hill (if he re-signs and pending Reiff’s decision obviously).

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Great read Sam :) I am in the keep O'Neill at RT. He's played more at RT in his career. He excelled at RT much quicker than anticipated. He will only get better, as his PFF grades demonstrate, with the time to develop more consistency. He faced some pretty tough competition and still managed well. I have no idea what the Vikings are going to do about Rieff. I don't think Cleveland is ready to assume the LT role. I'd prefer a free agent or a draft pick that has more discipline if there is one. I like Cleveland but I think the knocks on him coming into the draft have not been dealt with completely or the Vikings would have had him involved quicker... Sumia and Dozier were attrocious. I don't know and the Vikings are saying "why" with the hesitation on Cleveland but my guess is that the combination of his body type, tall and more slender not built like a refrigerator makes him susceptible to being bull rushed and over powered with leverage underneath. That can be coached. The other knock is more difficult to deal with and that is that he didn't finish plays or his opponents in college. Not saying he was terrible, but a number of scouting reports relayed the same when measuring what he could do in the NFL. So... though I do not want O'Neil moved, Cleveland's skill set puts Vikings in a tough place. I hope Cleveland can be coached into exhibiting more tenacity, because his raw athleticism is impressive, which would resolve some of this. He had to be doing something right when he was blocking for Brett Rypien considering the impressive amount of 300+ yd. games Rypien had.

Related to Rick Denison, I have not been impressed and was incredibly relieved he did not become the OC. When I say not impressed, I'm referring to the lack of progress in Dozier and Sumia in addition to poor pass blocking. He's been good in the past. He doesn't have much talent to work with. Hopefully, the line will improve this year.

Again, welcome aboard and SKOL Vikings!!

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Thanks for the comment, Curt. I think Dennison deserves a ton of credit for his work with the run game, which is foundational to the offense. But his inability to develop young players in pass protection has been discouraging. Granted, he's been given a stable of prospects that aren't built to hold up as well physically. Tough to know whether that is Dennison's fault or not, but I agree that he wouldn't have been my first OC choice.

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Quick shoutout to Sam and Matthew on this subject: There are a number of people in the TC Orthopedics Performance Center that are of the opinion that Rick Dennison is a terrible o-line coach and a major contributor to the problems the O-line has had (both on Sunday's and developmentally) for the last two years. Might be a good subject for an article if you're able to do some digging for off-the-record comments.

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I guess I would say that any coach is only as good as his talent. If that's true that some people inside the build hold that opinion about Dennison, I might look at it might like finger pointing more than anything. I certainly question some moves on the OL like everyone else i.e. sticking with Dozier at LG instead of rolling with Jones but Dennison's OL in Buffalo was ranked 3rd in pass blocking by PFF in 2017. That line also had Richie Incognito, Dion Dawkins and Eric Wood. They also had a mobile QB.

We could play this game with any position coach. Did Andre Patterson forget how to coach this year because the DL didn't pressure anyone? Or was it the fact that Hunter got hurt and Griffen left? It's a really hard thing to discern.

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Matt, I have to confess that I debated on posting that comment. That type of subject very well might be the exact kind of stories that you (and now Sam) don't want to write for this site, and I completely respect that if it's the case.

Now, obviously you don't know me. For all you know, I'm some guy who spends his waking hours perusing sites like www.nflrum0rz.net for info.

But for what it's worth, I can assure you I'm not playing the game you're referring to. This is coming from someone directly inside the building and I think you can verify some of this by watching O-Line film closely and (using your example) specifically contrasting with the DL. Look for variation and consistency (or lack thereof with the O-Line) compared to the DL.

Interestingly, SI published an article a few days ago that I didn't see until today on Dennison. Had I seen it previously, I probably wouldn't have posted my original comment for the obvious reasons. Regardless, just wanted to pass along some info on the off chance it might be helpful to you and Sam. Thanks.

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It's not a problem. I've never had any issue with writing things that were critical of anyone. Last year I wrote a piece coming out of the combine about how people inside the building were frustrated with Zimmer's dismissive attitude toward some analytics that they want to use. I wrote well before Stefon Diggs said it was an issue with the offense that I'd been told his issue was with the offense and lack of communication. But I have the same journalistic standards that would apply to any major publication and I consider it my job to parse out what's finger pointing and what's fact. If I do hear that, I'll write it

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I’ve wondered this too. I don’t know why Zimmer seems so married to him. Surely someone else can teach wide zone concepts.

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Matthew, how often are contracts signed without a signing bonus? With the cap crunch it would make sense to try to avoid much new money being put on this year's cap, and my understanding is that any signing bonus goes at least partially on the current years salary cap per the standard [signing bonus money]/[years of contract] formula, even if the player is still under contract on the year that the extension was signed.

Seemingly if it were a standardish 4 year deal with an AAV of around maybe 11MM you could give O'Neill a 3MM signing bonus to triple his 2021 take home and that would "only" count 600K against the cap this year (if I did that right), but I wonder if the Vikes would be against even a small bump like that. Conversely, given that O'Neill has "only" had career earnings of 3.3MM, I wonder if he is pushing for a big signing bonus so that he can have the money now.

Is there a standard way that this goes that you've noticed? I'm guessing that it mainly comes down to how practical and patient the player is (Kirk and his minivan comes to mind), but I could see it being a factor...

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