Vikings-Rams: 5 under-the-radar factors
Before the Vikings playoff game, here are a few things that didn't make the headlines
By Matthew Coller
Alright, it’s gameday. With a win on Monday night, the Vikings can earn a trip to play against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Let’s take a look at a few less-talked-about factors that might play a role in the result…
Turnover causers versus turnover avoiders
Once upon a time, you could bank on Matthew Stafford getting strip-sacked or throwing a bad interception against the Vikings defense but this year he has not turned the ball over very often. Fifteen quarterbacks had more interceptions than Stafford’s eight INTs and the Rams only lost five fumbles all season. Only three teams in the NFL had fewer total turnovers (Buffalo, LAC, Baltimore).
On the other side of the coin, the Vikings defense has been the NFL’s best turnover-causing unit in the league. They forced 33 in total, 24 of which were interceptions. One of those did come against Stafford earlier this season.
Turnovers are nearly impossible to predict but there is one interesting stat going in the Vikings’ favor when it comes to getting takeaways: Stafford tied for third among starting QBs in Turnover-Worthy Play percentage. He may have only had eight INTs but he totaled 21 TWPs. The Vikings will be looking to put an end to his turnover luck.
Stafford under pressure
In terms of massive negative plays, Stafford has done a terrific job avoiding sacks. With only 28 times sacked, he ranks sixth in the percentage of times he’s sacked when under pressure. More simply put: He’s hard to take down these days even the heat is on. However, Stafford has had very little success when under duress.
Stafford had the lowest PFF grade of all QBs with at least 100 pressured drop-backs. He completed just 46% of passes, averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and produced a 50.8 QB rating, second worst in the NFL.
The problem for the Vikings: Stafford doesn’t get pressured a lot. Only 31.1% of drop-backs were pressured, fifth lowest. Will the Vikings defense, which rated sixth in percentage of attempts where they created pressure (via Pro-Football Ref) be able to make Stafford uncomfortable? Or will the ball already be out of his hands?
Blitzing might not be the perfect solution. Versus the blitz, Stafford averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, got the ball out of his hands in 2.46 seconds (fifth fastest) and had a 103.2 QB rating (ninth best).
The Rams aren’t big blitzers and they like to drop back a 310-pound guy in coverage
The Rams ranked 21st in blitz percentage this season and 21st in pressure percentage. After watching the way the Lions rushed Sam Darnold last week, will the Rams switch up their plan and start to send extra pressure? They only blitzed Darnold eight times in the Week 8 matchup and Darnold ate them alive when they did. He went 6-for-8 with 70 yards and two touchdowns.
In fact, last week was an outlier in terms of Darnold’s performance versus the blitz. He was the sixth highest graded starting QB vs. the blitz during the regular season and led the NFL in yards per attempt when facing at least five rushers.
The Rams don’t commit a lot of penalties
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