Vikings-Packers is a battle of modern coverage deception
KOC, Josh Metellus and Adam Thielen explain why we are seeing so many more disguises in coverages
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — Before you read the rest of this article, go to YouTube and dial up a game from 2005. Prior to the first snap, look at the defense. Unless you are watching the Pittsburgh Steelers or New England Patriots, the defenders are very likely standing in position with no movement whatsoever. You might see some movement if the offense shifts or with different alignments on third-and-long and that’s it.
Now call up a game from 2025. Many teams around the NFL are having their linebackers and safeties moving around, no matter the down or situation. Sometimes linebackers will be up at the line of scrimmage in the A gaps. Sometimes safeties will be hanging over the edge of the offensive line like they are outside linebackers. Sometimes with less than 10 seconds left on the play clock, multiple players will rotate to different positions.
Still, you might think you have an idea what the coverage is going to be based on where the cornerbacks are aligned. Are the pressing? Are they traveling with motion? Are they playing off coverage with outside leverage? All of those things can be hints for quarterbacks. Or all of those things can be designed to trick the quarterback.
That is especially true when playing against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores or Green Bay Packers DC Jeff Hafley.
These are the masters of deception at the line of scrimmage. These guys are the answer to why quarterback play has seemed so much more unstable these days.
In 2020, teams averaged 240.2 yards passing per game. This year that number has dropped to 213.2.
Last year, Match Quarters author Cody Alexander broke down Hafley’s schemes that mix blitzes or simulated pressures with deceptive coverages.
Here is an example he used of an “inverted-2” coverage in which the cornerbacks drop back to play “deep half” coverage, which is where you’d normally expect the safeties to be.
Alexander wrote that the pre-snap look is either cover-1 or cover-3, yet it turns into a Tampa-2 coverage with the safety where you would normally expect the Tampa-2 linebacker to be.
If you were just trying to read the coverage from the pre-snap, you would expect the corners to either play man-to-man or drop straight back into cover-3 zones along the boundaries, which would also include the safety dropping back too.
You would also have a middle linebacker playing zone in the middle of the field and the seams exposed in a cover-3 but instead the edge player drops back into the seam and the linebacker blitzes.
In other words: Head spinning after the snap.
Over the past few years there has been an influx of these types of looks as a response to some of the great quarterbacks emerging as superstars and innovations offensively with pre-snap answers and motions.
“It does seem like over the last few years, disguise is at a premium,” Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “Trying to either bait you as a play caller or a quarterback into thinking it’s one thing, and then, make you play against something totally different as the post snap plays out.”
A decade ago, a lot of teams were trying to copy cat the “Legion of Boom” teams in Seattle that played cover-3 so well and had so much talent that it was difficult to beat even if offenses knew what they were doing. But offenses eventually found answers to stagnant defensive looks and started putting up ridiculous numbers, particularly Sean McVay in the early Jared Goff years where they were running play-actions, three-receiver sets and jet motions constantly.
“When you first start to do something, it’s like, ‘how do we stop this?’” Vikings receiver Adam Thielen said. “You look back to Miami when Tyreek [Hill] was doing the jet motions into full routes and no one was stopping it, so everyone started to adopt it and now you don’t see it having as much success anymore because defenses figured out how to stop it.”
Thielen said that he’s seen much more of the disguise coverages since he came into the league. He thinks they are also partly an answer to offenses putting in multiple plays and checking to the right play versus a certain coverage once they can read it pre-snap.
“When the whole ‘can, can,’ changing to the perfect play, I think when that all started, defenses were like, ‘we’re not just going to let them get into the perfect play against our coverage,’” Thielen said. “Then it started to be masked coverage and disguise, showing one thing and popping out to something else. I think that’s really gotten popular over the last couple of years because of all of the [offenses] trying to check to this perfect play.”
For wide receivers, the routes sometimes have to be adjusted based on the type of coverage. Thielen said the funny thing that happens occasionally is that he will expect to get man-press coverage and cook up a move for the defender and then the corner will bail out immediately and he will be left doing a release move against nobody.
Quarterbacks and blockers catch the majority of the defense’s rath on disguised coverages.
“Every week it feels like we are making sure our guys understand, offensively, that the picture may change depending on what the flavor of the week is for us, and we’ve got to be able to react accordingly,” O’Connell said. “And we have to have a system built where you’re not necessarily tied into decision making based upon coverages as much as principles of progressions that allow the quarterback to read with his feet.”
To O’Connell’s point, we have seen offenses around the league combat the confusing defensive looks by building off the run with play-action passes. The league’s best QB this year Matthew Stafford also leads the league in play-action percentage at 36.1%. When using play-action he has a 133.4 QB rating, by the way.
“It’s ebs and flows,” Thielen said. “Nobody was moving and then all of the sudden everyone was moving and now it’s shifting back into [for the offense], OK, let’s just line up and play football.”
On the defensive side, safety Josh Metellus was trained in the ways of disguise well before it was en vogue.
“I got blessed coming in with the way Harrison played safety for Zim over the years. Zimmer ran a lot of cover-4, a lot of combo coverages,” Metellus said. “Things that looked the same but played differently. That alone, getting used to that — I remember coming in and the biggest thing I’d get in trouble with was my alignment and my disguise. I couldn’t make it look how they made it look. I had to figure that shit out fast if I wanted to play.”
Metellus has a theory that goes beyond just defenses responding to the success of certain types of offenses around 2020-2023. He also thinks there has been an influx of talent at the cornerback position.
“In the past two years it has hyped up even more because of the corners,” Metellus said. “The corners’ ability to play coverage at an elite level has allowed for more disguises. I think of the Broncos and you’re watching Pat Surtain and Riley Moss double back as half safeties like multiple times throughout a season. You can do that with Defensive Player of the Year or Riley Moss, who is an athletic freak.”
The Vikings haven’t gone for athletic freaks as much as high intellect and versatile players in the defensive backfield who can communicate with each other and play different coverage schemes every week depending on the opponent.
“Every quarterback is different,” Metellus said. “Some teams don’t want their quarterback to make those [changes], it’s just built into the call.”
I commented to Metellus that being a quarterback has never been harder because of all of the things they are facing from defenses. The one cheat code to all of that is QB athleticism and mobility. If you aren’t a 15-year vet like Stafford, going out of structure can break any scheme.
This week as the Vikings face off with Hafley and the Packers’ deceptive defense.
Many have seen it before but not with a certain All-Pro on the field. The new weapon Hafley has, Micah Parsons, changes how quickly JJ McCarthy must process what he’s seeing in the secondary.
“He’s lining up everywhere,” O’Connell said. “On first and second down, he’ll be on both sides. He’ll move around sometimes within a drive. So, you really can’t have an exact beat on where he’s going to be…then on third down, he could be rushing inside, he could be lined up off the ball. You got to be ready and prepare, schematically is one thing, but then, all five of those guys up front understanding that it may be a tough down to fight through.”
The Packers are No. 1 in the NFL in yards per completion allowed — evidence of the quick throws that opposing teams are being forced to make — and rank sixth in QB hits. Because of Parsons’ ability to be a one-man wrecking crew, the Pack only blitz 18.8% of the time, per Pro-Football Reference, which ranks sixth lowest.
What does that mean? A lot of seven-man coverages where Hafley can mix and match.
How will O’Connell approach the game with McCarthy heading into his sixth start? Will he lean on the run game again as he did versus Chicago? The Pack are second best in yards per rush attempt against.
Will they use McCarthy’s ability at the line of scrimmage to get into the right calls? Will they play it straight forward and try to get the ball out of his hands quickly?
“It’s a cat and mouse game,” Thielen said. “What actually helps us? What makes it easier for us and simple because you can get too complex and everyone is thinking.”
We’ll see on Sunday at Lambeau. If McCarthy is going to turn things back in the right direction, it will be against some of the most unique defensive looks he’s seen in his young career.
It’s disheartening, not only are NFL players athletic freaks they’re intelligent and process information faster than I ever could.
JJ will be on his bike all day