Vikings go all-in with huge free agency Day 2
The Vikings made two enormous signings and plan to make another soon. What does it say about where they stand?
By Matthew Coller
Remember all those years where the Minnesota Vikings sat on the sidelines and watched as other teams went wild during the opening days of free agency?
Well, not this time.
The fruits of the Vikings’ decisions over the past couple years to become a cap-healthy team — especially moving on from Kirk Cousins to draft JJ McCarthy — are now paying off as they signed guard Will Fries and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen on Tuesday. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Vikings will also add veteran defensive tackle Javon Hargrave.
You might have to put sunglasses on before you see the reported contracts because they are startling. Fries is signing a five-year deal worth $88 million, which makes him the sixth highest paid guard in terms of average annual value. Allen is set to make $20 million per season over the next three years. We will find out Hargrave’s deal when the contract can be made official but expect some sticker shock.
Even if the contract totals are beefed up by funny money, the Vikings were still the biggest spenders over the first two days of free agency. With so much competition for interior D-line and O-line free agents after the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl on the back of trench dominance, the prices were bound to be out of this world. For nearly $18 million per year, you would expect Fries to be the second coming of Steve Hutchinson. Unfortunately, that is not the case. By PFF in 2023, he ranked as the 29th best guard (out of 58). He was off to a very strong start in 2024 before suffering a crushing leg injury in Week 5. Before that he was the second highest graded guard in the NFL.
The truth is probably in the middle of those two numbers. At 27 years old, Fries appears to be getting better, having gone from a seventh-round pick in 2021 to the starting lineup in 2022 to playing above average football in 2023, he appears poised to continue that upward trajectory. Offensive linemen develop at different paces from other positions like running back or wide receiver, where their younger years are usually their best. Linemen often peak in their late 20s and early 30s because of the complexity and technical elements of the position.
Here’s what Trench Warfare’s Brandon Thorn wrote about Fries in his Substack newsletter:
“Fries is coming off of a devastating fractured right tibia injury suffered in Week 5 last season. Before the injury, he morphed into one of the most underrated starting right guards in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. Fries entered the league as a seventh round pick in 2021 and carved out a starting role. He relies on refined technique, good play strength and elite finishing skills that stand out even on a line featuring an all-time great finisher in Quenton Nelson. Assuming a clean bill of health, Fries is good enough to be the second or third best starter on a unit. His competitive toughness will set the tone for a room.”
All of that bodes well for the Vikings, who have struggled to establish a physical presence on the interior since Hutchinson was part of the mix.
That doesn’t mean he is going to live up to the dollars-per-year dollar figure. There will still be moments where Fries gets beat. He ranked 24th in Pass Block Efficiency in 2023 and scored the 29th best grade as a run blocker.
But grabbing a second-tier type guard who is improving and has a nasty edge is exactly what the Vikings needed and they can afford it. Think about it like this: If you are thirsty in the desert and somebody wants you to pay $30 for a bottle of water, you are happy to do it if you have $100 in your pocket. The Vikings do not have to play the economics game in the same way they used to do in the Cousins era where they waited for cheaper prices and got lower ceilings of performance in return.
The investment in Fries is also an economics play in a different fashion. Because of the NFL’s constant cap inflation, a deal for nearly $18 million per year today is not the same as a deal for $18 million next year. As the cap continues to rise, that deal will look much more reasonable. Take for example Jonathan Greenard, whose $22 million per year looked steep 365 days ago and now looks brilliant with Myles Garrett raking in $40 million. The Vikings getting their cap correct allows them to play in this sandbox in the same way that people who flip houses can only do it if they have the initial startup money to buy property.
We also need to keep in mind that the dollar figures are almost never the actual price.
That brings us to Jonathan Allen. His deal and he only carries a $6.2 million cap hit for 2025 and cap number that can be restructured to under $15 million in 2026, it seems a little more reasonable. The third year is basically non-existent.
(Side note: Similarly, Byron Murphy Jr.’s numbers were reported by OverTheCap.com and his deal only has a $6.9 million hit in 2025 and his cap hits can be cut in half by restructure in 2026 and 2027).
Nonetheless, the Vikings still invested a lot in Allen when his production has slipped. In 426 snaps in 2024 before suffering an injury, he was only 44th in PFF’s pass-rush win rate among starting and rotational DTs. That was just barely in the top third of the league. He hasn’t been an elite pass rusher since 2022 when he produced 7.5 sacks and ranked 10th in QB pressures.
The Vikings are betting on a 30-year-old DT coming off an injury and regression. In the most prudent and shrewd world, this is not a good bet. However, even Allen’s performance in 2024 would be a major upgrade from what the Vikings have had in terms of interior pressure since Sheldon Richardson signed in 2018. Last year, Jihad Ward produced 31 pressures as situational interior rusher on 395 pass rush snaps and the next best defensive tackle on the Vikings had 17 (Jerry Tillery on 250 snaps). Allen had 16 on 180 snaps and 49 pressures in 2023.
If Allen brings the Vikings an average performance by his standards over the last three seasons and even plays 400 pass rushing snaps, you could reasonably project him to create something in the ballpark of 35-40 pressures based on his per-snap pressure rate of one every 10.7 snaps.
Hargrave was lost early in the 2024 campaign but was prolific as a pass rusher before that. In 2023 he was 12th with 53 pressures and in 2022 only three DTs got after the quarterback more often: Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones and Cam Heyward.
There are ranges of outcomes with these signings. In the best-case scenario, Allen and Hargrave remain healthy and pair with Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel to form one of the best defensive lines in football. In a median outcome, Allen and Hargrave aren’t what they used to be but are still effective and the Vikings are much, much better at creating pressure with four rushers than they were before.
The risk they are taking with these moves is that everyone on the D-line except Phillips has missed significant time at some point within the last few years. No one can predict injuries but aging players coming off big injuries should always be more concerning than free agents who get signed in their mid-20s.
But signing older players is a staple of teams that are playing to win the Super Bowl. Last year’s Commanders team featured Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz. The 2021 Rams had Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller. The 2017 Eagles had Alshon Jeffrey, Torrey Smith and Chris Long.
As much as everyone wants their franchise to get younger, the truth is that veteran teams usually go deep in the playoffs. Experience and consistency matter.
The Vikings are playing to go deep in the playoffs. They might have changed quarterbacks but that doesn’t mean they changed standards. That was evident from Tuesday’s moves. They are not playing slow-and-steady. Nope, they are gas-pedal down. Some might say that it’s not just about the signings but what the signings represent.
With the cap surplus created by McCarthy and the cap exploding, they can afford to play fast and loose with their cap space and sign anyone who wants to become a Viking. Overspending in areas where they desperately needed more talent should be encouraged. Playing the cap-savvy card at guard and DT hasn’t worked.
So if they are in go-for-it mode, what’s next?
Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is expected to be released by the Rams. Might as well give him a call. The Vikings could use an underneath option with some toughness to go along with their deep duo Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
If not Kupp, maybe Keenan Allen? He was open last year, it’s just that his quarterback was getting sacked all the time.
Another guard? Teven Jenkins and Will Hernandez are still out there.
The Vikings still have to resolve the safety position with Harrison Smith. Top safeties Jevon Holland and Justin Reid went off the board already and Cam Bynum signed with the Colts.
What will the Vikings do in the draft? Do these moves point to a guard? Corner? Maybe even a running back? Oh, by the way, they officially got the 97th overall pick as compensation for Kirk Cousins leaving — though it was his cap space that was the difference maker on Tuesday. Hopefully nobody can tamper with pick 97.
Anyway, the point is that the Vikings made it clear with these big-name, big-money moves that they are going to throw all their assets into this club and do everything they can to take advantage of McCarthy’s rookie contract. They believe in their foundation with Jefferson, Darrisaw and Greenard and have every reason to shoot for the stars after a 14-win season. That approach does come along with more potential pot holes than playing it safe in free agency. We’ll see whether this ends up being a day that is remembered as when they turned the corner or one that didn’t pay off versus the hype.
You said with Dane we are in "win NOW mode," but maybe just as important, we opted for good experienced vets on the O line (especially center) to give JJ the best chance at early career success as he learns his role? No one knows more than KO how a quarterbacks career can be derailed early. Perhaps these moves are also to mitigate that possibility.
As Bruce Arens once said "No risk it, no biscuit." The NFL is no place for the weak or timid. When you have the means, key players and coaches in place you play to win now, not for next years draft picks. That's a losers mentality. I have zero fear J.J. will fail. Are they going to go 14-2? Nah. But I'd rather have the team fail boldly than squeak by doing things half-assed.