Trying to understand the Vikings' offensive line plan
Dakota Dozier is back -- are there still more moves coming on the O-line?
The Minnesota Vikings’ offensive line has some ground to make up in order to buck the three-year trend of Kirk Cousins being one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the NFL.
The offseason summary along the O-line goes like this: The Vikings released Riley Reiff, re-signed Rashod Hill, traded for Mason Cole and on Tuesday, re-signed guard Dakota Dozier.
It would be hard to argue that they are on the positive side of the ledger with that collection of moves.
Reiff was the team’s best pass blocking linemen in 2020. He ranked 11th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus’s Pass Blocking Efficiency metric and 26th of 52 in pass blocking grade.
Dozier and Ezra Cleveland were last and second-to-last in PBE at the guard position while Cole finished 26th of 32 centers. Dozier was the second most penalized guard (9) and Cole was the second most penalized center (8).
Hill has been a reliable swing tackle but when he saw more playing time in 2018, he ranked in the bottom third in PBE and pass blocking grade.
Add that with center Garrett Bradbury ranking in the bottom five in both categories and the Vikings statistically only have one above average pass blocker in Brian O’Neill in their present projected starting lineup.
There is a best-case scenario that exists in which either Cleveland moves to tackle and shines or Hill takes significant steps forward (which the team believes he has) and seamlessly takes Reiff’s spot. There is a distinct possibility that Bradbury will improve in Year 3 as many lineman take several years before reaching their peak.
But even if everything clicked with Cleveland, Hill and Bradbury, the Vikings would still have two proven below average players battling for a starting position.
The fact that offensive lines are often only as good as their weakest link has been problematic for the Vikings in recent years. Despite solid showings from Reiff and O’Neill for three years running, the guard spot has been the target of opponents’ pass rushers.
Per PFF, here’s the distribution of where pressure on Cousins came from last year (lower is better):
LT: 14.0% (2nd lowest)
LG: 26.1% (2nd highest)
C: 16.5% (5th highest)
RG: 25.0% (2nd highest)
RT: 14.8% (5th lowest)
QB: 15.3% (10th highest)
With the stark contrast between interior pressure on Cousins and pressure from the outsides, you could see the logic behind cutting Reiff to create cap space, keeping Hill in the mix at a low price and looking for help inside. To date, however, a move hasn’t been made to improve those interior pressure stats.
Instead their offseason additions have been along the same lines of other recent starters that were both inexpensive and less than satisfactory in pass protection. In 2018 Mike Remmers and Tom Compton finished 41st and 42nd of 48 starters in PBE and in 2019 Josh Kline and Pat Elflein were 39th and 49th of 49.
This year’s free agent market did not feature many attainable interior linemen that would have been rags to riches improvements. Washington’s Brandon Scherff was franchise tagged and Joe Thuney signed in Kansas City for $80 million over five years. But there were/are players who would have pushed the Vikings from rags to a two-bedroom house in the suburbs in Pass Blocking Efficiency.
Some examples: Matt Feiler (6th of 49), Chris Reed (9th), German Ifedi (12th), Quinton Spain (21st), John Miller (28th).
Oday Aboushi was just under the qualifying snap count, otherwise he would have ranked fifth. When Austin Blythe played guard full time in 2018, he was 18th of 48 in PBE.
Reed is still on the market, the others have signed, including Blythe who landed with the Chiefs on Tuesday.
All of that leaves us with two questions: Was this the plan? Is there more to the plan?
If the offseason blueprint was to spend most of their cap space on the defensive side and hope that continuity and progress from young linemen will take them to the next level, history may very well repeat itself in terms of the pressure Cousins faces.
The argument in favor of keeping things mostly status quo aside from projected growth from Cleveland/Bradbury/Hill is that the Vikings finished 11th in scoring last year despite their QB ranking third highest in percentage of drop backs in which he faces pressure. They might feel like this group can also be exceptional in run blocking for Dalvin Cook, who is the centerpiece of the offense.
The gargantuan difference between Cousins’s clean pocket performance and pressured performance might suggest reexamining that logic though. When Cousins was pressured he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and had a 72.0 rating, per PFF. With a clean pocket, he had the second highest QB rating in the NFL at 121.7, only behind Aaron Rodgers.
Even producing a few more clean pockets per game might make a difference in the passing game’s production.
What is yet to be determined is how they view Dozier. It’s altogether possible that Dozier is only returning as depth — a role he was solid in during his first year as a Viking in 2019 and prior to joining Minnesota with the New York Jets. What would the next part of the plan be in that case?
Options in free agency are running out but the market isn’t a wasteland just yet. Both Kansas City tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are free agents and veteran tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Rick Wagner remain on the market. Lottery ticket guards like Forrest Lamp and Ben Garland are out there as well.
They could either bring in a proven bridge tackle or take enough shots at guard to have a true competition.
The possibility of an Orlando Brown Jr. trade also still exists. Whether the Ravens are willing to move him and the potential price tag are both unknown.
The NFL Draft could shape the entire way we view the Vikings’ offseason approach to the offensive line. If they decided not to spend in free agency to patch holes because they planned to take a first-round tackle like Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater or Alijah Vera-Tucker, the plan would be much more clear.
Selecting a top lineman would set the Vikings up with two first-round picks and two second-round picks to grow together for years to come. They could use Cole or another free agent guard to bridge the gap (or if the pick is Vera-Tucker, he can play guard right away).
If the Vikings go with an edge rusher in the first round and aim for a starting lineman in the third round, it will feel more like betting on a lottery ticket.
So while the signing of Dozier may have brought along plenty of “here we go again” sentiments on the interwebs, the Vikings don’t hit the field for training camp for almost four more months. We need to see the completed plan before we can project if the 2021 line is going to be better.
Unless this is the whole plan, in which case Cousins should work on his quick game.
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They are putting too many eggs in one basket. If they have a repeat of last year it will Zimmer and Spleiman shown the door not Cousins. Maybe we are wrong and they win 11 plus games. But this is same team that thought Dru Samia could play...
Dakota Dozier? Dakota Dozier??? WTH!!!! That guy must have some very compromising pictures of Speilman... SMH