By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — It’s not really fair to look at Justin Jefferson’s yards per game and compare it to previous seasons because we need to factor some things into the equation.
First, the Minnesota Vikings have been leading a lot this year. They have run the fifth most plays when ahead of any team in the NFL and that generally means running the ball often. Aaron Jones has the second most carries with his team ahead of any running back.
“I think in the past we were throwing the ball a thousand times,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said on Wednesday. “When you lead the league or you’re close to in rushing attempts on the early downs, controlling the game or attempting to control the game, there may not be just the amount of volume, but he’s our best player and we’ve got to find a way to continue to activate him.”
To show how much the run-often approach has impacted Jefferson’s stats, 26% of Kyler Murray’s throws have gone to Jefferson over the last two weeks. In his Offensive Player of the Year season in 2022, Kirk Cousins targeted him 29% of the time.
Jefferson also started the game against Tampa Bay with two catches for 32 yards and then suffered an ankle injury that took him out of the game.
In the four full games he’s played this season, the Vikings’ star receiver is averaging 67.5 yards per game, which is a 17-game pace of 1,147 yards. Those are not the numbers you’d expect from him.
It’s an odd place to be for Jefferson because he knows that he should be a bigger part of the offense but it’s hard to argue with the team’s 6-0 record.
“That’s something that you kind of have to be in the middle on,” Jefferson said. “Obviously you want to have high production. You want to be in the top in all categories. But you have to look at the bigger picture and understand that we’re 6-0, we’re winning games, and what we’re doing right now is working but there’s things to do better and things to fix on the offensive side of things.”
The efficiency of throwing Jefferson the ball has returned to its previous standard. When he’s been targeted this year by either Carson Wentz or Murray, the passer rating on those throws is 141.3 and completion percentage is 76.7%.
O’Connell said that one of the reasons that Jefferson hasn’t gotten the ball more is that defenses haven’t brought extra defenders into the box despite the fact that are running more in previous years.
“We just haven’t really seen teams say, ‘you know what, we’re going to get that eighth defender around the line of scrimmage’ with so much conviction that we’re willing to allow him to have one-on-ones,” O’Connell said. “And when he’s had them, he’s won, he’s caught the ball, he’s had some opportunities that we haven’t been able to take advantage as we’ve kind of progressed.”
The numbers confirm O’Connell’s assertion. Against the Colts, Jordan Mason only faced eight defenders in the box on 13% of carries and vs. New Orleans Aaron Jones faced an 8-man box on 4% of rushes. Jones’ game against the Saints was the third lowest heavy-box percentage of any runner in Week 5 and only four RBs with 10+ carries saw fewer box defenders than Mason in Week 7.
But just because there are explanations doesn’t mean that it’s OK.
If we look at the distribution of targets for Jefferson thus far, he’s had more targets in the intermediate area (10-19) than he has short throws (0-9), yet Murray is completing 87% of passes this year on 0-9 throws, best in the NFL.
We know that Jefferson has had wild success in the past as a downfield receiver, averaging 14.6 yards per reception for his career and even during a difficult 2025 he was still highly success in the intermediate area with 29 catches on 48 targets and eight contested catches on 12 attempts.
But the league is shifting. With teams refusing to waver from shell coverages, a lot of offenses have leaned into getting their best receivers the ball underneath.
Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St Brown, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London and Smith-Njigba are all under 10.5 average depth of target (shortest 30% among receivers with at least 15 targets).
To frame it differently, the top 0-9 receivers in terms of targets this year are: CeeDee Lamb, Nacua, Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and St. Brown.
Jefferson ranks 68th.
Laquon Treadwell has six more short area targets this year than Jefferson.
There has to be a better way to pair Murray’s best throws with Jefferson. One thing that stands out is that KOC hasn’t used Jefferson in the slot much this year. He’s only taken 16.1% of his snaps out of the slot in 2026, which is a big drop from his career mark of 28.5% (he’s been over 30% three times in his career).
Jefferson averages 4.6 yards after catch per reception for his career, so he is capable of turning passes that travel five yards through the air into first downs.
Will they find the answers soon?
This week the Vikings face the perfect opponent to turn things around.
During Jefferson’s career, he has averaged 107.1 yards per game against the Lions. They currently rank No. 32 in passing yards allowed. Opposing QBs have a 102.2 passer rating against Detroit amd have 16 touchdowns to four interceptions.
The Lions have one good corner in DJ Reed, who ranks 21st out of 114 by PFF grade thus far in 2026 but their other two CBs Roger McCreary and Rock Ya-Sin are 84th and 97th, respectively.
What has to happen in order for the Vikings to take advantage of a struggling secondary?
“Nothing really crazy,” Jefferson said. “It’s just going through progressions and hitting an open receiver….It’s just all on the execution and all 11 guys just doing what they need to do to complete the play.”
Last week, we saw a bunch of different examples of 11 guys not doing what they need to do. Whether it was a wide open third down look that was blown up by pressure or a missed throw by Murray high or a sack on a quick pressure, there is a lot more that’s going to have to get fixed than just Murray targeting Jefferson on quick throws in order to get him back to the impact he’s had in previous years.
“It’s just growing pains of trying to figure out the offense and getting on the same page, that’s the main thing,” Jefferson said. “It takes time. We still talk about how the offense is going to have one of those games of being complete and dialing it up. And that day is going to come.”
The Vikings need it to come on Sunday because the Lions average 30.7 points per game, second in the NFL.
Sounds good to me. Trade for a better RB who can take advantage of the 7 man boxes, and let Kyler do what he is actually good at. Jefferson is good enough to run the routes that make Kyler comfortable. We shouldn’t be doing it the other way around and trying to make Kyler throw those mid range shots that have been JJ’s calling card in the past.