Thoughts as the Vikings GM search begins
Tom Pelissero reported that the Vikings have made a request for a Buffalo front office member
By Matthew Coller
And off we go…
Per Tom Pelissero, the Vikings have made a request to interview Bills assistant GM Terrance Gray.
What do we make of it?
The first thing everyone is going to study when it comes to GM candidates is the way the person’s previous organization did things. Did they succeed in the draft? Did they spent money the right way? How did they run their culture?
The tough part about that is that nobody is a carbon copy of their previous boss. There are lots of failed GMs who worked under successful team leaders and there are some GMs who came from less impressive franchises and they ended up thriving.
Maybe we can assume that there will be some shades of the previous franchise’s overall philosophy that travel. In Gray’s case, you can already figure that there will be an enormous emphasis on the draft. He was a college scout for the Vikings and worked his way up to director of player personnel for Buffalo.
The Bills are an interesting team to pluck from because so much of their success has been rooted around quarterback Josh Allen. Yet they have also had some very meaningful drafts and excellent moves around the superstar QB. According to the draft analysis website PerThirtySix, the Bills from 2020-2022 ranked 12th, 7th and 3rd in total value gained from those drafts.
They did, however, struggle to find contributors in 2023 and 2024, which put them behind the eight ball for their current roster.
When Gray was in Minnesota, there were similar ups and downs. The 2015 draft was possible the best draft of the decade, yet the 2016 was a mess. And we can’t exactly pin drafting success or failure on one person who was a part of a much bigger decision-making group.
It’s also difficult to study Buffalo’s free agent spending. When they had the Allen rookie contract golden ticket, it was much easier to land quality players in free agency than after he got an enormous extension. On the defensive side, the Bills have done well at avoiding a slide, ranking 2nd, 4th, 11th and 12th in the years following Allen’s first contract.
Again, we really can’t say how the moves to keep Buffalo’s defense afloat were impacted by him or whether Sean McDermott’s defensive prowess kept it rolling despite a decline in the roster.
Brandon Beane has also been an interesting leader for the Bills. Just like with Rick Spielman, you get the sense that the evaluator believes in the team’s scouting strongly but doesn’t exactly put a huge emphasis on positional value (the Bills spent a lot of draft capital on running back, tight end, linebacker etc.) and it’s not clear from their drafts that they are exceptional at stockpiling. They’ve only hit 10+ picks once since Beane has been in charge.
Is that the way Gray would do it? Only the people interviewing him are getting that answer.
So what can we say about the Vikings interviewing Gray?
Well, he has definitely taken a traditional route up the ladder. He would understand how the Vikings organization works and have familiarity with the Wilf ownership and he has been in position to have to work around a QB contract, as the Vikings might if things work out with Kyler Murray.
It wouldn’t feel like any type of wild card or big swing and we wouldn’t expect some massive overhaul of the front office if he were hired. It doesn’t fall under The Mystery Box category.
That doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Someone with a traditional football background will bring respect along with them and have a better chance of vibing with Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores.
The biggest question is: Where is the edge?
If you believe the edge is in better evaluations than other teams, well, that’s a little hard to prove. Not just based on Buffalo’s results but anyone’s results. Even the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles had ice cold drafts before hitting on hot runs in recent years (ahem, Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, just saying).
Is the edge going to be in the connection with the coaches? I could see that.
Is the edge going to be the overall functionality of the front office? That’s possible. Just by proxy of having a background as a scout doesn’t mean that Gray won’t know how to lean on people that bring data-driven elements to the table.
Throughout this process, no matter who ends up on the Vikings’ list, that’s the question that I’ll probably keep coming back to: How does this person give the franchise an advantage?
That’s maybe a better way to look at it than: What did their previous boss (and quarterback) do?
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