The Vikings defense is more than the sum of their parts
Vikings defensive numbers are creeping toward being a top-notch defense. Why are they exceeding expectations?
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — Understandably the biggest story coming out of the Minnesota Vikings’ win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was quarterback Josh Dobbs, who shocked the football world by learning the offense on the fly and leading a game-winning drive. But it can’t be forgotten that the defense held Atlanta to two field goals after Dobbs fumbles in Viking territory and forced two key turnovers that turned into 10 points.
Their performance in Atlanta continued a trend of vastly improved play compared to the beginning of the season.
After giving up more than 400 total yards to Philadelphia and Los Angeles in Weeks 2 and 3, the Vikings have not allowed a 400-yard game since then despite facing Patrick Mahomes and the 49ers along the way. They have worked their way up to 17th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and fifth in rushing yards per attempt. Overall, the Vikings now rank 12th in Expected Points Added on defense and 13th in turnover percentage.
That doesn’t mean the defense is perfect. They rank 29th in third down percentage and 27th in plays allowed per drive but overall they have made large gains from 2022’s unit that ranked 28th in points allowed and 31st in total yards.
Here’s the interesting thing about the defense’s data: In 2022, Pro Football Focus graded the Vikings as having the fourth best defense in the NFL behind only the 49ers, Jets and Eagles. This year, they grade 18th.
How could that be?
No, PFF was not out of its skull last year. When you look at the individual grades, you see that 2022 had some outstanding performances that pumped up the overall grade. We would all agree that Za’Darius Smith, Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson had great seasons and their PFF grades reflected that. But defenses are only as strong as their systems and how well they manage their weaknesses.
Last year’s system under Ed Donatell was a bad fit for a number of players and allowed the weak points at cornerback to be exploited. This season PFF has the Vikings as having the sixth best coverage unit while they were graded 18th in 2022 yet no cornerbacks have outplayed Peterson’s 80.7 grade from last season. The difference appears to be a strong cohesiveness within the unit and the advantage of opposing QBs being puzzled by different looks.
The result of the unit playing with chemistry and fitting with Flores’ scheme is a trend across the roster of players out-performing their previous resumes. A few examples:
— Safety Cam Bynum allowed a 117.0 QB rating into his coverage in ‘22 and ranked 55th out of 68 safeties by PFF. Thus far under Flores he ranks as the seventh best safety in the NFL and has given up a 73.8 rating against. He’s played more often in the box and has flashed an ability to be an aggressive player and above average tackler.
— Josh Metellus currently ranks as the 20th best safety, though he could be considered a top-20 linebacker with his usage at the line of scrimmage. Prior to 2023, he played a grand total of 331 defensive snaps. Flores found a niche role for him during training camp and he hasn’t looked back.
— Veteran linebacker Jordan Hicks ranks as the 14th best linebacker by PFF and has the highest grade of his career since 2018. Last year he was 28th.
— Undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr. ranks in the top 15 among linebackers.
— Fourth-round pick Akayleb Evans has become a reliable cornerback. Mekhi Blackmon has become a regular rotational corner and has graded above average.
— Jonathan Bullard has been a key part of the run defense and with 308 snaps is on pace to easily clear his career high in snap count (437).
Out of the Vikings’ 14 most used players on defense only three are grading below average.
So why has the defense come together? Why have so many players been better than expected based on their past (or draft status)?
Star pass rusher Danielle Hunter has a few explanations. He starts with one of Flores’ biggest mantras: Make the “hidden stats” plays, which he describes as doing something that allows someone else to make a splash play.
“You can go about doing your job and know that if I do my part that somebody else will make the play and that’s what we have been seeing happening week in and week out,” Hunter said. “Flo[res] lets us recognize when an individual does something that allows somebody else to make a play.”
There are many examples of the Vikings-Falcons film of hidden stats plays. For example, on the Vikings’ goal line stand following a Dobbs fumble, Bullard took up two blockers, allowing Metellus to come through and make the tackle for loss. Later in the game, Harrison Phillips fooled the offensive line by dropping into coverage and Ivan Pace Jr. came through for a pressure and Jordan Hicks finished the play by sacking Taylor Heinicke.
“Ultimately it’s about a group that can play as one and help one another…I love coaching this group,” Flores said.
Part 2 to Hunter’s feeling on why the defense has improved is the mix of levels of experience on the roster. There are numerous veterans like Hunter, Harrison Smith, Harrison Phillips and Jordan Hicks along with a gaggle of guys who had barely seen an NFL field before this season.
“The older guys lead by example showing that there are things that [Flores] tells us to do and we apply it and then the young guys see it work out and they start doing the same thing,” Hunter said. “He leans on the older guys a lot because he knows that if we do the right things it will pave the way for them too. I think it’s good chemistry.”
And then there’s Flores’ ability to keep everyone collected, even when things get hairy.
“He keeps us in the right head space,” Hunter said. “He never wants us to worry about anything. He’s always composed. The biggest thing is continuing to grind. Offenses are going to make plays but we do enough to combat that. He puts us in the right situations in whatever part of the defense. He keeps us composed, man. Not to worry about too much when the offense makes a play. He has that presence.”
The term that keeps coming up with Flores’ relationship with his defense is “buy-in.” Asked how that phrase can be defined, head coach Kevin O’Connell explained it by focusing on players’ trust for Flores’ game plans and how teaches his defense.
“I think the biggest thing they understand is each and every week we are going to have plans that give us the best opportunity to have success,” O’Connell said. “The best thing for me individually as a player, I know is going to be clearly articulated. The plan of how we are going to defend really good offenses in this league every single week. It can reinvite itself all while still being learnable and digestible for the players to go play fast. I think that's one of the greatest things Flo and his staff do.”
While the Vikings’ defense is rolling now, it has to be pointed out that their run of improved play included Bryce Young, Justin Fields/Tyson Bagent, Jordan Love and Taylor Heinicke. This week’s challenge is a notch above those quarterbacks with Derek Carr and a New Orleans Saints’ offense that is trending in a positive direction with the fifth most points scored in the NFL over the last five games. The Vikings’ defense will need to play one of its best games as it faces an opponent with strong weapons like Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.
“A lot of times at this point in the year people start to wear down physically and wear down mentally — we have to push through all that,” Flores said. “If we do that I think we will remain confident.”
Love it!! Defense is my jam.