The reputations and realities of Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford
Detroit and Minnesota's quarterbacks are viewed differently but there are a lot of similarities, including questions about their future
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Earlier this week, I called my friend Jeff Riger from 97.1 The Ticket in Detroit to ask him about Matthew Stafford’s future and whether Lions fans are watching draftable quarterbacks with the same interest as Minnesota Vikings faithful have over the past few weeks.
“We are totally divided, there’s no question about that,” Riger said on the Purple Insider podcast. “I think Kirk Cousins and Matt Stafford are very comparable but you have one thing that Detroit fans are jealous of and that’s a playoff win.”
The irony of that statement is that the reputations of Cousins and Stafford are different. Not as different as, say, Patrick Mahomes and Mitch Trubisky, but different enough that analysts consistently rank Stafford among the better quarterbacks in the NFL and Cousins a clear notch below.
When Mike Sando of The Athletic polled 50 coaches and executives in his annual Quarterback Tiers piece prior to this season, they ranked Stafford as the ninth best QB in the NFL and 38 of the 50 voters placed him in the second tier. Cousins was given 35 of 50 votes as a third tier QB.
When you line them up on paper, it’s a tough take to justify.
The stats
Using Pro-Football Reference, here is each player’s average season using per 16 games stats since 2015 by traditional statistics:
Stafford (37-41-1 record since 2015): 65.5% completion, 4,299 yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 6.65 adjusted yards per attempt, 96.0 rating, 42 times sacked
Cousins (44-40-2): 67.9% completion, 4,225 yards, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 7.7 yards per attempt, 6.98 adjusted yards per attempt, 99.1 rating, 32 times sacked
How about by the PFF grades? Here’s how they’ve ranked by PFF passing grade, starting with 2015:
Stafford: 22nd, 10th, 9th, 15th, 7th, 22nd
Cousins: 13th, 8th, 18th, 12th, 4th, 9th
So Cousins has a better record, slightly better traditional stats and better grades in five out of the last six seasons.
What’s the deal with their perception as being so much different then?
Let’s try to pick it apart, starting with Stafford’s “clutch” gene.
Detroit’s QB is fifth in game-winning drives since they started keeping the stat in 2001. He’s behind Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. The Vikings’ quarterback is 18th, trailing closely behind Matt Schaub. Likewise, Stafford is tied for fourth in fourth-quarter comebacks whereas Cousins is 17th.
Stafford does have more career starts than Cousins but Detroit’s QB pulled off a game-winning drive once every 4.3 starts, compared to Cousins’s once per 7.3 games rate.
While there have been numerous occasions in which the Vikings’ QB had the game in his hands and didn’t come through, on the matter of being a winner, Stafford has some notable examples that seem to fly under the radar.
In 2017, Detroit needed to beat Cincinnati for a shot at the postseason and Stafford went 19-for-35 with one touchdown, one pick and a 69.1 rating in a 26-17 loss to a team that Case Keenum demolished the week before. The Lions finished 9-7 and missed the postseason.
In the playoffs, Stafford is 0-3 with an 87.8 rating.
In Sando’s piece, two people who were quoted talked about the supporting cast as the issue.
“If you landed him in Pittsburgh or San Francisco, you’d see a winner,” a defensive coordinator told Sando.
“We always talk about the culture,” one coach told Sando. “Pat Mahomes comes into the league and sits behind Alex Smith, and you have Andy Reid there. If you put Matt Stafford in that situation his rookie year and he gets to see, ‘OK, this is a Hall of Fame head coach, a quarterback that has been around the league that I can learn from and see his habits.’ I don’t know if Matt Stafford has ever been exposed to what it’s supposed to look like.”
The supporting cast
While the perception of Stafford is that his team is such a disaster that he can never truly maximize his talents, Cousins had Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski and a bunch of great receivers from DeSean Jackson to Jordan Reed to Stefon Diggs to Adam Thielen and now Justin Jefferson.
Well, let’s look into whether there’s truth behind that notion, beginning with the weapons that each quarterback has been given. Rather than subjectively compare receiver vs. receiver etc., we’ll use PFF’s overall grades for receiving, again starting in 2015:
Stafford: 6th, 19th, 1st, 22nd, 13th, 11th
Cousins: 7th, 3rd, 16th, 9th, 9th, 1st
Both QBs have had it pretty good with receivers but Cousins has been a little more blessed in this regard. His average team receiving grade is 8th while Stafford’s is 12th. Is that a big enough difference to stay Cousins had a far better group of weapons? Probably not.
How about offensive line?
Stafford: 18th, 17th, 16th, 8th, 21st, 10th
Cousins: 15th, 7th, 26th, 27th, 27th, 28th
Detroit’s long-time QB has averaged having a mid-pack OL at 15th while Cousins in recent years hasn’t cracked the top 25.
Pass blocking is impacted by the quarterback, of course. But Stafford has a 6.7% sack percentage and Cousins 5.6% over the last six years. Put another way: With better lines in five of the six seasons, Stafford was sacked more often.
To summarize: Cousins has better box score stats, better PFF grades, a better W/L record with similar weapons and worse O-line performance.
So why do many coaches and execs think Stafford is decidedly better?
One reason is the skill set. Stafford was a No. 1 overall pick and has a crazy good arm. In 2019, he had the No. 1 “big-time throw” percentage by PFF’s grading whereas Cousins was 13th last year in his best career season.
“You don’t ever go into a game going, ‘Boy, I don’t know what we are going to do about this f—ing Cousins,’ ” one defensive coordinator told Sando. “Doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. Legit starter, but needs some s— around him.”
Cousins and Stafford might be looked at like two baseball hitters, one of which gets to his .800 OPS with a low batting average and lots of home runs and the other by having a high on-base percentage and fewer dingers.
Relying on big-time throws is tough though. Stafford was 12th in big-time throw percentage in 2018. Like home runs, sweet throws vary in their success and if they go cold, it’s a problem (just ask the Twins!).
There’s also something about the spotlight that Cousins was put under when he signed an $84 million contract. He was on TV a lot more and every comment in the media was scrutinized.
“Winning down in New Orleans was awesome,” a personnel director told Sando. “I did not see that coming. I don’t know if he will take the next step. Some of it is the personality. Awesome guy, I would love for my daughter to marry him. Just some of the things you hear out of there from teammates and from a leadership standpoint, I don’t know if it is there.”
Stafford has never really received that type of attention. Even when his wife posted something on Instagram about potentially leaving Detroit last offseason, it went mostly unnoticed.
Cousins also joined a team with a great defense and Super Bowl expectations. At no point in Stafford’s career has he ever had either one of those things. In Stafford’s entire tenure, Detroit has had a top 12 defense just one time (2014). Seven times they have been 21st or worse. When he did have a top-five defense, the Lions went 11-5 but they came up short in the playoffs against Dallas.
One thing these two good quarterbacks have in common is that they are expensive. Stafford’s cap hit was the largest of any QB in 2019 and Cousins’s was third. There are questions about both as to whether their teams can build up a strong enough roster around them in order to reach the Super Bowl. Both have been starting for a long time and had the opportunity but neither has been able to get over the hump.
And both are currently looking up at the Bears and Packers with their fan bases wondering if it’s time to start scouting college quarterbacks. After all, recent history has proven that a QB on a rookie contract is the best route to the Super Bowl.
It can also be the best route to having your team fall into irrelevance for a long time. Just ask the Jets and Giants.
In a way, Stafford and Cousins both have benefited from and been victimized by the system. If you are a franchise QB these days, you make $30-plus million. There is no scale. You are worth $30 million or not. Maybe some of the results would be different or the perceptions would be different if the Tier 1s made way more than the Tier 2s and Tier 3s. But teams are QB desperate and players know their value.
The ironic part of Cousins and Stafford’s position with their teams is that despite their large sample of play, each week seems to be a new referendum on whether they are capable of winning big games and whether they’re worth the price tag.
Sunday’s game isn’t unique from that. While neither QB can drag his team into the playoffs with a victory at US Bank Stadium this week, the losing player falls into last place and sends his team’s playoff odds into the basement. The winning QB gets his chance at a second half run back into contention. And it is possible the game serves as a turning point for either one’s club to stick with or move on from them in the long run.
Or, as closely comparable as they are, maybe Sunday’s contest will end in a tie.
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