The NFC is a roster-building race
Looking at the conference landscape that the next Vikings GM will inherit
By Matthew Coller
For the longest time, the AFC has been owned and operated by a couple of quarterbacks. I’m sure you have heard that crazy stat about either Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger going to every Super Bowl for 20 years except for the couple times that the Baltimore Ravens got blazing hot in the playoffs. Once the AFC thought they had escaped the grips of those all-time great QBs, Patrick Mahomes arrived to ruin everyone’s Sundays in January. He’s flanked by a bunch of AFC monsters in Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye who haven’t yet won the ring but enter every season with a darn good chance at it.
The NFC hasn’t been that way since Steve Young, Brett Favre and Troy Aikman were dog walking AFC teams in the Super Bowl in the 90s. In the 2000s, the NFC has fluctuated wildly in terms of the teams that have reached the top of the mountain.
From 2000-2010, the Giants, Rams, Bucs, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, Saints and Packers all had their chance. From 2011-2020, the Seahawks pulled off a rarity going to back-to-back Super Bowls and otherwise it was the Giants, Panthers, Falcons, Eagles, Rams and 49ers before Tom Brady took his talents to the NFC and won.
In the 2020s, we did see the Eagles reach the Super Bowl, win it in 2024 and then remain contenders but they haven’t done it with an all-time great quarterback. Similar to the other NFC teams that have made it to The Big Game in the NFC, the QBs have been very good and flawed. Whether it was Jimmy Garoppolo or Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold, the good-but-not-perfect QBs have brought teams to the final weekend of the NFL season by having great rosters around them and coming up big in the right moments.
Matthew Stafford exists in an interesting place in this conversation because he wasn’t considered a top-five quarterback until he literally won the Super Bowl with the Rams. Even during the 2021 season, there were times where his up-and-down performance would have suggested he was still the guy from Detroit. After he won the Super Bowl, those still existed until last year when everything clicked for Stafford to win MVP.
The point of focusing on the NFC’s past of parity is that the next Minnesota Vikings general manager is going to match up against a conference that is full of quarterbacks that fall under the category of being very good but there are few candidates for all-time greatness. What the new GM is facing is a battle of the roster builds because QB talent won’t be the factor that pushes one team clearly ahead of the others as it has been with the Bradys and Mahomeses of the AFC.
To demonstrate this, let’s look at every NFC quarterback’s peak season by PFF rank over the last three seasons:
That’s 12 of 16 quarterbacks that have posted a top-12 season over the last there years and eight of them have had a top-10 PFF grade.
As we look forward, it’s tough to see Tagovailoa putting up another season like he did in 2023 and Stafford is only going to play so much longer. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Caleb Williams rank higher than 16th soon and we could see Young, Shough or Dart ascend as well.
Williams is the quarterback that has the talent to take over the NFC in coming years, especially with Ben Johnson calling the shots in Chicago. However, his inconsistent accuracy has led to questions about whether he can reach the Mahomes/Allen/Jackson type level or if he’s going to fall under the same category as these other very good QBs who fluctuate from year to year.
So how might that shape the Vikings’ thought process going forward?
It is obvious that there needs to be an emphasis on the things that can push a quarterback to his peak performance or take him down. Blocking, receiving, supporting in the run game and scheme fit. Nothing new there. But there are details of each one of those things that will be important to the next Vikings decision maker.
Finding a star center is suddenly a massive cheat code in the NFL with defenses running all sorts of crazy blitzes and stunts that force the center to communicate and help. Teams are rushing 270-pound defensive ends over the interior line more often these days and drafting DTs who are size mismatches (as the Vikings did with Caleb Banks).
The Vikings will have to decide whether to extend Jordan Addison. In 2024, Sam Darnold throwing to Addison had a 122.3 passer rating. Nobody knows better than the folks of Minnesota how much a receiving duo can elevate a quarterback.
They will have questions going forward at WR3 and tight end. With the league’s average depth of target coming down in recent years, tight ends have been extremely valuable for teams like the 49ers, Eagles and Rams.
They may have to decide whether to extend Kyler Murray. The question will be whether he can reach the heights of other QBs like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold or if his flaws keep him from reaching their peak levels.
We used to talk about paying a non-elite quarterback like it was a death knell but the massive increases in the NFL’s salary cap and creative structuring have allowed teams to keep their QBs and build around them. Also there is a middle class of QB contracts that has emerged recently. There are 10 QBs between $50-$60 million per year, six QBs between $30-$50 per year and Malik Willis and Aaron Rodgers between $20-$30 million.
In last year’s playoffs, six of the eight NFC quarterbacks had veteran deals, including Darnold at $33.5 million per year.
Having the golden ticket of the rookie QB contract is still ideal when you compare the savings vs. top QBs, it’s just not the only way these days.
On the defensive side, it’s also not exactly a hot take to suggest that the next GM has to build a great defense to have a chance at the Super Bowl but lately it’s only been the best of the best that make it. Seattle was the No. 1 defense in the NFL in 2025, Philly was 2nd in 2024 and San Francisco was 3rd in 2023.
The Vikings emphasis this season on drafting defensive players, particularly in the middle of the defensive line, can be backed up by the fact that defense has won championships in recent years.
What are the best teams best at? It hasn’t been just one thing. The 2023 49ers had 48 sacks, the 2024 Eagles were in the top three in QB rating allowed and the Seahawks were eighth in sacks and fourth in rating allowed.
If we look at the rosters, the depth of dominating players along the defensive line stands out as well as the superstars in the secondary like Quinyon Mitchell or Nick Emmanwori.
One thing is clear: They were mostly built through the draft. Each team had complimentary players like DeMarcus Ware or Zack Baun but the majority of the defensive-led teams are put together by spending a lot of draft capital on that side of the ball.
The biggest similarity between the best teams is that they have young players hitting their top performance at the same time and they bring the squad together with quality signings in free agency or big trades like the Eagles getting AJ Brown or the Seahawks trading for Leonard Williams.
Form the foundation through the draft, pick the right moment for the big move.
Of course, there’s a lot of luck involved and there’s no perfect blueprint to reach the Super Bowl. But the point is that without a Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes running over the conference, the door is open to the Vikings putting together a good plan for their next roster build and putting themselves quickly in position to have multiple years of competing in the NFC with hopes of having things fall their way in the post season.
If we look at the timelines of the NFC North, the competition is going to be pretty darn stiff for the foreseeable future. The Bears have several years left of Williams being affordable, the Packers will have an effective QB and Micah Parsons for many years to come and Detroit still has a few more bites at the apple.
One thing that is clear is the Vikings’ tendency to be victims of the moment when it comes to their spending probably has to end with the all-in offseason of 2025. All the teams that have had sustained success usually were put together methodically rather than in one big swing.
The situation in the NFC both gives hope to the idea that the next decision maker could take them where they haven’t been recently by emphasizing the draft and appears daunting because there’s so many clubs in a similar spot.
Great article Mathew 👏 Imo there's still a lot of questions that needs to be answered regarding the defense. Especially on the back end of the defense.