The Future of the Vikings, Part 8: The timeline
Where do they go from here with the big picture of the roster?
By Matthew Coller
Welcome to the final installment of our Future of the Vikings series: The Timeline.
Let’s dive in…
How they got here
You can put all 32 NFL teams into these four categories: A) Legitimate contenders, B) purgatory, C) rebuilding, D) calamity.
The question for the Minnesota Vikings is whether they are in Category A or Category B and how far away are Category C and D?
Over the past four years, the Vikings’ timeline was very clearly laid out by the team’s leadership. They wanted to compete right away and then “competitive rebuild.”
In 2022, Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah were hired to take one more shot with the remaining core of Mike Zimmer teams that had gotten stuck in purgatory. The owners felt that a better culture inside the building would give them a shot at maximizing the remaining talent and they turned out to be (mostly) right. While many of them were harrowing victories, the team won 13 games with Kirk Cousins at the helm and showed that there was more meat on the bone than the seven and eight-win seasons of 2020 and 2021.
After losing to the middling New York Giants in the playoffs in 2022, the Vikings elected to stick to the plan. They cut older players like Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Za’Darius Smith and Eric Kendricks and elected to let expensive players like Dalvin Tomlinson leave in free agency, took on dead cap hits from years of Rick Spielman pushing money down the road. They chose not to sign Danielle Hunter and Kirk Cousins to massive extensions, leaving them with maximum flexibility for the future. And then they made attempts at diamond-in-the-rough type signings like Marcus Davenport rather than taking a big swing at more proven free agents.
The idea was to let Cousins walk, find a bridge QB and give their drafted QB time to develop. With the books opening up in 2025, the Vikings spent big in 2024 free agency and set up the contracts to become expensive later. They crushed those signings with Blake Cashman, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel all becoming instant stars in Minnesota.
The plan, however, was thrown for a loop when JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury and Sam Darnold shocked the world by winning 14 games. But after a disaster in the postseason, the Vikings elected to stick with the original plot. They went wild in free agency, re-signing everyone except Darnold, putting up the second most total dollars of any team in the NFL. The idea was that they could stack the roster up so much that McCarthy would be insolated.
Well, even the best laid plans….
McCarthy struggled and suffered four different injuries in 2025. The roster got banged up early in the season and did not recover until later in the year. Darnold won the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks.
Now they are at a crossroads.
They have a squad that is capable of performing at a top-five level on defense, an offensive line that can perform at a high level if it is healthy, the best receiver in the world and solid additional weapons and the NFL’s top kicker. But it’s unclear how much longer this group that was put together over a several-year span can stay together with their collective ages and price tags.
They also have no clear answer at quarterback and no sure-thing option in free agency or via trade. If the Vikings don’t believe in McCarthy as a 2026 starter, they are in a familiar spot (for different reasons) as in 2016 where they had to replace the young QB that they thought was going to be the franchise guy with a flawed veteran in Sam Bradford.
That muddies the timeline significantly. If the Vikings were a sputtering team that was slowly rebuilding, then they could easily stick with McCarthy and see how it played out. With a talented roster that is ready to win and might not have much longer as a group — not to mention four years for O’Connell without a playoff win — they probably can’t afford to ride it out.
It stands to reason that if they found a solution at QB, then they could get into the column of teams that are legitimately competing. Super Bowl contention? That depends on who the next QB is and how well they play. But it’s not insane for a team that won 14 games when their over-under was 6.5 in 2024 to figure it out in 2025. It’s also not insane to think that picking from a bunch of QBs that were let go by their teams is not ideal and could backfire.
The quarterback directions
Each path has its own fork in the road with all sorts of other potential directions off that. Let’s run through the possible outcomes and how they impact the timeline…
— We can start with the still-possible scenario where they do not end up replacing McCarthy and he figures it out and becomes a top 12-14 QB. This is by far the best-case scenario because it would allow them to seriously compete in 2026 and rebuild on the fly in the remaining years of his rookie QB contract.
— The scenario where McCarthy ends up starting but isn’t particularly special might be the worst of any outcome because they would be left with a decision on a fifth-year option and eventually an extension while being unsure if he can take them anywhere.
— The situation where McCarthy is either benched or loses a QB competition in camp at least provides clarity. While it’s possible that he could develop for a year on the bench and come back strong, normally once the benching happens there isn’t a second take for a young QB. They would know that either the replacement has to work out longer term or they will be looking to 2027’s draft class for answers.
It gets complicated from there. What if Kyler Murray or Mac Jones ends up as the Vikings and plays well enough to justify another contract? Would they sign them to bigger dollars into the future or let them go in favor of picking someone in 2027 anyway? Or keep them as a bridge and try to run it back in 2027?
Another direction that makes life easier is that the next QB fails. If they acquired Derek Carr and went 7-10, then they would be aiming to draft a QB in 2027 and go through a rebuilding process similar to 2023 into 2024.
Everything regarding the timeline is dictated by who plays QB and how well they play.
Justin Jefferson’s future
Technically Jefferson is under contract through 2028 but his contract appears to be set up for an extension after the 2026 season when his guaranteed salary runs out and his cap hit will be $43 million.
That could create a decision time for Jefferson after 2026. Does he want to be a Viking long term? If he does not, then he could make it clear to them that he wasn’t going to be a long-term part of the team and try to force a trade. In a scenario where he is unhappy, it would be favorable to trade him with years left in his prime and on his contract to maximize the return.
Nobody wants this to happen. The Vikings, their fans and Jefferson would all prefer him to be the Minnesota version of Larry Fitzgerald and remain in purple for the remainder of his career.
Not everyone can be Fitzgerald though. Jefferson still hasn’t felt the joy of playoff victory and certainly hasn’t come anywhere near reaching a Super Bowl. Fitzgerald’s club made the Super Bowl in his fifth season and then returned to being highly competitive a few years later with Carson Palmer. If the Vikings do not look like they are going to be competitive, especially at the QB position, Jefferson could seek a franchise that could get him there.
How do the Vikings thread the needle of likely being forced to do some serious overhaul of the roster after 2026 and keeping Jefferson motivated to remain a Viking?
That starts with competing (and getting him the football) in 2026.
When Jefferson was on radio row during the Super Bowl, he said that he still considers himself the top receiver in the NFL. He couldn’t help but point out the obvious: That his down season had been driven by poor quarterback play.
You can bet that Jefferson has no interest in another year where he has to give postseason explanations for his performance coming up short of other receivers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.
So if Quarterback X (or McCarthy) can get him back to the top of the receiver standings in receptions and yards, that would be a healthy start for earning his trust back in the offense.
That might sound selfish until you realize that the offense’s success lives and dies on whether they can make this happen.
There is no better stat to demonstrate this than the QB rating on throws that target him over the years and the insane difference between the past and 2025.
2025: 58.3
2024: 107.4
2023: 109.8
2022: 108.8
2021: 113.0
2020: 116.4
Those are MVP numbers year after year when any quarterback targets him except McCarthy.
He also has a career contested-catch rate over 50%, which is rare in large samples.
If Jefferson is catching footballs, the offense will score points and give the Vikings a chance to be a serious team to be reckoned with, as they were when Darnold was throwing rockets to him in 2024 or Cousins in 2022 and 2023 before his injury. They even had quality offensive output when Nick Mullens started due to his commitment to throwing to No. 18.
Putting together a good season with strong offensive output and elite numbers would cool any potential tension that could arise. Winning in the postseason would extinguish it.
Even if the long-term outlook was questionable with the need to rebuild certain parts of the roster, Jefferson’s relationship with O’Connell has been very strong over the years and winning in the playoffs would solidify the head coach in his role for years to come. A stable situation with a competitive team and Quarterback X proving that the ball will go his way would likely put Jefferson in a comfortable position to sign an extension.
There is a slight theoretical problem with that best-case scenario. If the Vikings check all of Jefferson’s boxes and do not reach the Super bowl and then have to enter another “competitive rebuild” type phase, then trading Jefferson for draft picks would actually make sense. It would give them a jolt in young talent and cap space to go into the future. Instead they would be looking at another overhaul without a top pick, which they have not had inside the top 10 picks (they traded up for McCarthy) since 2014 when they took Anthony Barr.
Escaping the middle is the team’s goal, yet they are always too good to completely reset. The total implosion that might be needed after 2026 would be nearly impossible with Jefferson still on the roster. Ah, the forever Vikings conundrum.
A new GM
The Vikings’ next decision at general manager will tell us a lot about how they want things to be structured in the future. Do they want someone to work hand-in-hand with O’Connell? Do they want someone to oversee O’Connell? Do they want someone go get the players that the coaches want? Do they want someone to take the bull by the horns when it comes to the roster? Do they want a GM in name only or the person to lead them into some rocky waters in the future?
If the Vikings hire a GM with the goal of working closely with O’Connell, it’s hard to see much about the handling of the roster changing. It already appeared that the coaches had taken over much of the draft and free agency decisions already. That’s not necessarily a bad thing considering the Vikings have a strong roster overall but there were certain decisions along the way that were suboptimal that might have been avoided if the GM had the final say.
If the Vikings hire a GM with the goal of evaluating O’Connell and taking over the entire operation himself, then things get very interesting about the power dynamic. The GM would then have the ability to create the next version of the roster in their vision and require O’Connell and Flores to make it work.
An intriguing structure for the Vikings might be to have a president of football operations overseeing the GM and HC and acting as a direct line to the Wilfs. That would allow for someone to head up the operation rather than having the HC and GM both answering to the owners.
Nobody really knows which direction they will go but it will tell us a lot about how the Wilfs are viewing the next iteration of their team.
A vital draft
It’s obvious to say that any team needs to hit on the draft because everyone does. The Vikings really need to hit on the draft this year though.
Over the last four years, the Vikings have acquired the following players through the draft that are likely to have a major role on the 2026 team: Jordan Addison, Donovan Jackson, Will Reichard, Dallas Turner. That’s the list. They have a handful of role players like Levi Drake Rodriguez and Jay Ward and that’s it.
It’s almost impossible to have that few contributors and still have a competitive team going forward. With more and more franchises using extra cap space to sign their own players rather than letting them hit free agency, it’s going to be harder in the future to nail free agency. What the Vikings did in 2024 is nearly impossible to replicate.
That means they must get the ball rolling on key positions via the draft both for now and later. The roster is strong but it’s flawed. They do not have a complete backfield or a starting center or an answer if Harrison Smith retires or cornerback depth or a clear WR3 if they lose Jalen Nailor. Without a top-notch quarterback, they are going to need everything they can get in the draft.
So what’s the right approach? It’s probably to trade down and acquire more picks if possible. Even adding one or two more selections gives them more darts to throw at the board. More possible role players, even if they don’t become instant stars.
With the 18th selection, the Vikings’ direction will be fascinating. From a timeline perspective, another wide receiver makes more sense than any other position. If they aren’t interested in paying Addison in the future and need a long-term partner for Jefferson or a just-in-case-he-leaves receiver, this could be a good year to grab one.
If they are looking more toward right-now players to help them in 2026, then a position like safety fits the bill because they tend to have a quicker learning curve than other positions. Defensive tackles are often immediate impact players too.
Do they want to aim to have the best possible defense? Do they want to take a huge step in the run game with a highly-drafted RB? Do they want to give Quarterback X another weapon because that’s still the best way to drive success in the NFL?
Lots of questions. The answers will have ripple effects.
Hot seat?
After Darnold won the Super Bowl, ESPN’s big voice Stephen A. Smith declared that O’Connell is on the hot seat.
There has been no indication from ownership that O’Connell is actually on the “hot seat,” though you could argue that if John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott and Mike Tomlin could all be cast aside, isn’t everyone on year-to-year contracts?
The pressure will be ramped up on O’Connell’s shoulders in ways that it never has been before. He became an instant HC darling after getting Cousins to look like the clutch quarterback and the leader that Mike Zimmer never believed he was. And then The Josh Dobbs game left an impression on the national level that never faded, even if Dobbs eventually did. After Darnold’s 14-win season and the Coach of the Year award, O’Connell could have walked across Lake Minnetonka in the eyes of the national media.
To quote Michael Scott: How the turntables.
The what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league is now looking at the Vikings’ head coach as the guy responsible for the Super Bowl champion QB’s exit and the struggling development of McCarthy.
With the GM already fired, the next man up is being given plenty of leeway to build the roster in his vision this offseason along with Brian Flores and make the next vital QB decision. But there is no scapegoat left to blame another QB failure on, so O’Connell needs to get this one right. He needs a QB who can execute his offense. He needs a running game that he can lean on. He needs to find the right free agency and draft fits and he needs to manage games in a way that gives his team an advantage.
If those things don’t happen and the Vikings are watching from their sofas in the playoffs next year, then there is a strong chance they make a change. Is it fair? Probably not. It’s questionable to axe a head coach who can win nine games even in a difficult year. Not to mention that eight of the 10 coaches that came in with O’Connell in 2022 are already fired and Todd Bowles is under pressure in Tampa Bay too. The grass isn’t always greener.
It’s not always wise to fire coaches who are relatively young and have more good traits than bad, particularly from a culture perspective.
At the same time, Zimmer was in the NFC Championship in Year 4. The Wilfs fired him after missing the playoffs twice in a row. They have not tolerated consistent failure to play in January.
Plus, if things go poorly enough to push all of those 2027 rebuild buttons, maybe it’s time for the next regime to restart them the way Zimmer did after Leslie Frazier.
This season feels like a Netflix series that might have more seasons on the way if it can deliver or might get cancelled if it falls flat — fair or not.
"So what’s the right approach? It’s probably to trade down and acquire more picks if possible. Even adding one or two more selections gives them more darts to throw at the board. More possible role players, even if they don’t become instant stars."
So, back to loading up on 6th and 7th rounders a la Rick Spielman when the chances of hits drops significantly? Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.
I don’t know that I would say head coaching gigs are year to year now because Harbaugh and Tomlin got fired after decades with their teams. I would not fire KOC after this next season unless it’s a completely lost the locker room bit. The timeline aspect really makes the Darnold vs McCarthy thing hard to stomach. They had a guy who was very good right now, today, outside of the last few games and passed on him for a guy who had never played a snap and by all accounts needed a good amount of development. Outside of Malik, I don’t think any of the QB options are realistic long term. Maybe Mac jones or Kyler Murray have great years here, but it won’t be as good as Darnold’s and I can’t see them signing those guys to long term deals. They’re drafting a guy in 2027 and just need to bring in the best guy they can for one year to take advantage of a roster that could be extremely good if they hit on this draft.