The future of the Vikings, part 8: Secondary
Do the Vikings still need to add cornerbacks? What happens with Anthony Harris?
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the course of a few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Season overview and key stats
It has been a long time since we have seen the Minnesota Vikings’ secondary struggle like they did in 2020. Overall they ranked 23rd in passer rating allowed, 25th in total passing yardage and 30th in net yards per pass attempt. The cornerback group in particular had a rough go of it. Two starters struggled and then were lost to injury, forcing rookies and special teamers/career backups into key spots. When the dust settled, five corners gave up 115 or higher passer ratings into their coverage.
However, the Vikings did get some flickers of hope for the future and some answers on players they will have to make decisions on. Let’s have a look how each player’s season went…
Anthony Harris
Stat line: 66.2 PFF grade (30th of 64), 109 tackles, 0 interceptions, 7 PBUs, 121.4 passer rating allowed (52nd of 64)
The Vikings decided to franchise tag Anthony Harris after he led the NFL in interceptions in 2019 and then elected not to trade him despite fielding offers. The decision to keep him did not play out in their favor as is performance come short of expectations in 2020 while making $11.4 million on the cap.
Harris still ranked fourth among safeties in pass breakups and gave up the fifth lowest completion percentage into his coverage but without interceptions, he simply wasn’t as valuable as 2018 or 2019. Plus miscommunications with young corners led to big plays as he gave up 15.7 yards per completion (10th highest) into his coverage.
Harrison Smith
Stat line: 74.3 PFF grade (12th of 64), 87 tackles, 5 interceptions, 5 PBUs, 74.0 passer rating allowed (10th of 64)
Despite everything the secondary was dealing with — lack of pressure from D-line, merry-go-round of inexperienced corners — Harrison Smith was still terrific. Only Tyrann Mathieu had more interceptions and he created 13 QB pressures on 36 pass rush snaps. Yes, that’s more pressures than either starting defensive tackle.
There are few players who are more dynamic and reliable from year to year than the Hitman. The only downside to Smith’s game in 2020 was that he took several (questionable) penalties, one of which resulted in an ejection.
Jeff Gladney
Stat line: 50.1 PFF grade (73rd of 80), 84 tackles, 0 interceptions, 3 PBU, 124.7 rating allowed (74th of 80)
It was a rough ride for Gladney as he stepped right from playing at TCU to playing both inside and outside corner in the NFL. He was on the field for the third most coverage snaps among rookies in 2020 and performed very much like a rookie. He led all first-year players in touchdowns allowed, gave up the second most yards among rookies and the highest rating against of any 2020 draft pick targeted more than 40 times. Even Gladney’s run defense, which flashed at times, ended up ranking 50th of 64 starters and he finished second to last in tackling grade.
It was clear why Mike Zimmer has slow played the development of past corners. The good news for Gladney is that cornerbacks’ rookie seasons are not historically reflective of how they turn out long term.
Cameron Dantzler
Stat line: 70.9 PFF grade (22nd of 80), 45 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 PBUs, 94.0 rating (40th of 80)
Do you want the good news or bad news?
Let’s start with the good: The only higher graded rookie corner is playing in the Super Bowl (L’Jarius Sneed). Dantzler showed signs of being a playmaker and the potential to be a steal for the Vikings in the third round.
The bad news is that his grade was bolstered by two very good games against Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky.
Here’s a look at his game-by-game PFF grades:
By the grade scale, 60 is average, so you can see most games were around average or well below and two were terrific.
Dantzler was hurt three separate times, leading Zimmer to suggest he needs to bulk up this offseason. Just like with Gladney, the jury is still very much out on Dantzler.
Kris Boyd
Stat line: 55.8 PFF grade (84th of 136 starters + reserves), 58 tackles, 0 interceptions, 2 PBU, 121.3 rating allowed (115th)
In 2019, Boyd was a standout on special teams. Often times the Vikings have seen strong special teamers become quality role players like Stephen Weatherly or starters like Anthony Harris. But Boyd regressed on special teams, committing numerous penalties and when he was given a chance at cornerback, he struggled.
Opponents completed 76.5% of passes into his coverage and gained 14.3 yards per completion. Boyd made some plays against the run but mostly showed that he is an in-case-of-emergency player at corner unless he takes big strides forward.
Chris Jones
Stat line: 46.0 PFF grade (121st of 136), 19 tackles, 0 interceptions, 1 PBU, 131.0 rating allowed (127th of 136)
Jones was the definition of a replacement-level player. He was brought in as depth and ended up playing far more than the Vikings would have wanted because of injuries. He might have been able to take on a coverage role as a dime back or play one or two games in a pinch but the more he played, the more opponents attacked him. Jones graded at the very bottom of the league and was a part of several key moments (Tony Pollard touchdown run, Scotty Miller touchdown catch) that were costly to the Vikings.
Holton Hill
Stat line: 42.6 PFF grade, (124th of 136), 22 tackles, 0 interceptions, 4 PBUs, 101.9 rating allowed (81st of 136)
What a tumultuous ride for a cornerback who only actually started six career games.
Hill was a sought-after UDFA in 2018 and garnered attention when he played well filling in for Xavier Rhodes. But in 2019 he got suspended for eight games and barely saw the field. Yet the Vikings elected to start him at outside corner in 2020. Things quickly turned ugly as Hill posted a brutal 38.2 coverage grade in the first four weeks. He got hurt and then the team cut him before the end of the year.
Harrison Hand
Stat line: 65.8 PFF grade, 12 tackles, 2 PBU, 1 interception, 90.8 rating allowed
The Vikings’ fifth-round pick saw only a handful of opportunities on defense in his rookie campaign but made the most of them with an impressive INT against the New Orleans Saints. He graded as the third best (non long snapper) special teamer as well. Hand likely set himself up for a special teams role next year with an opportunity to compete for more playing time in the secondary.
Mike Hughes
Stat line: 54.4 PFF grade, 13 tackles, 1 PBU, 120.3 rating allowed
Only one word can describe Mike Hughes’s 2020 season: Unfortunate.
After showing some signs of life in his sophomore season, Hughes suffered his third serious injury in three years and only played 173 snaps. In three years since being picked 30th overall, he’s been on the field for fewer plays than Jeff Gladney was this year alone.
The Vikings still have no answers about whether he can be a starting-caliber player but they do know that his health is too much of an issue to count on anything from him.
Cordrea Tankersley, Mark Fields, Josh Metellus, Dylan Mabin
A handful of players got into the mix but didn’t play enough snaps to get any type of feeling for whether they could play any role in the future.
The contracts
Anthony Harris — Unrestricted free agent
Harrison Smith — Entering the final year of his contract. Has $10.3 million cap hit for 2020, can be released with zero dead cap space. His situation sets up for a contract extension.
Jeff Gladney — Second year of rookie deal, $2.4 million cap hit
Cameron Dantzler — Second year of rookie deal, $1.0 million
Kris Boyd — Third year of rookie deal, less than $1 million
Chris Jones — Restricted free agent
Harrison Hand — Second year of rookie deal, less than $1 million
Mike Hughes — Team must decide on fifth-year option (appears unlikely), $3.1 million in final year of rookie deal.
Josh Metellus — Second year of rookie deal, less than $1 million.
Options
Safety
The first decision for the Vikings is whether to make any attempt at re-signing Anthony Harris or open up another spot on defense that must be replaced. While Harris’s season was disappointing, that also might make him much more affordable than when he was the league leader in interceptions. But with cap issues abound, it might be hard to justify spending on a position that has (before 2020) been filled by an inexpensive Harrison Smith sidecar.
Speaking of which, the odds of the Vikings trading Smith are very low but his contract situation calls for some type of action. It’s very likely that he will receive an extension but if talks stall, there exists a chance that he could be moved. If the Vikings did put Smith on the trade block, he would have a great deal of interest across the league. A trade would open up $10.3 million in cap space but it would create a serious uphill climb to reach an average defense in 2021.
If the Vikings stick with Smith and move on from Harris, they will have several quality/affordable free agent options. There are 11 free agent safeties who played at least 80% of snaps last year, including the No. 3 graded safety by PFF John Johnson, the fourth ranked safety Marcus Maye, seventh-ranked Marcus Williams, No. 8 Justin Simmons and some bargain players like Jalen Mills (19th), Keanu Neal (23rd) and Tashaun Gibson (25th).
It’s such a rich safety market that it would make sense for the Vikings to wait until the second wave of free agency to fill the job.
This year’s safety draft class is not known to be particularly strong like the 2020 class. CBS Sports lists only three safeties in the top 50 players. The Vikings could pick up a safety in the third or fourth round but that player would need development behind a veteran.
Corner
Last year the Vikings made a lot of bets at corner and lost on most of them. They bet that Mike Hughes would be healthy. That Holton Hill could take on a starting role. That the two rookies could handle significant playing time. That Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris could make up for the corners’ shortcomings.
This time around, the Vikings can hedge their bets that Gladney/Dantzler will improve or that Hughes will be healthy or that someone else like Harrison Hand or Kris Boyd will emerge by signing a veteran cornerback or two.
Last year Washington picked up Ron Darby for $3 million. Arizona signed Dre Kirkpatrick for $1.1 million. Kansas City paid Bashaud Breeland $3 million. Cincinnati signed Mackensie Alexander for $4 million. All of these players are free agents again and none of them are likely to break the bank.
Cornerback is such a valuable position in the NFL and they have so many questions still to be answered that the Vikings wouldn’t be crazy to chase a fairly big fish like Cincinnati’s William Jackson or Tennessee’s Desmond King. The needed improvement from the corners is massive and if the Vikings pin all their hopes on rookies making progress, they’re taking a big risk.
The Vikings could also draft another corner, even though fans wouldn’t likely celebrate the pick. The first round has two players in Caleb Farley of Virginia Tech and Patrick Surtain II from Alabama who are likely to land in the range of the Vikings.
The future of the secondary
The most likely scenario is that the Vikings replace Anthony Harris with a cheaper veteran who fits the “deep middle” type role and they atone for last year’s mistake by finding an experienced cornerback to fill out the group like they once had with Captain Munnerlyn and/or Terence Newman.
With so many needs along the defensive line, there probably won’t be enough cap space or draft capital to throw at the position to put the secondary on completely solid ground for 2021 but even a few additions could make the chances of calamity much lower.
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Good read as always - I have to imagine next up is Future of the Vikings - Part 8, the Specialists. Can't wait to hear about the Long Snappers and Aussie Hybrids that have a chance to fall to when the Vikings pick on day 3!
Matthew, not sure on how to comment on your podcasts, so will do it here. Can you get Leroy Hoard weekly too? Great show, he is very fun to listen to.
Can’t believe he missed a 4th and one in high school, since
“Coach, if you need one yard, I'll get you three yards. If you need five yards, I'll get you three yards.”
Love your work. Keeps me entertained at lunch.
Thank you...