The future of the Vikings, part 7: Linebackers
Will Anthony Barr be a Viking long term?
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the course of a few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Season overview and key stats
Before the Vikings reached Week 3, they already lost Anthony Barr and two depth players in Ben Gedeon and Cameron Smith for the season. Still for a large portion of the season, Eric Kendricks and Eric Wilson made the position a bright spot amidst a defense that was struggling on the front and back end. However, when Kendricks got hurt and missed the final five weeks of the season, the flood gates opened for opposing offenses and the Vikings gave up 34 points per game during his absence.
Let’s have a look at how each player performed this year and what it says about their future…
Eric Wilson
Stat line: 1,034 snaps, 122 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 11 QB pressures, 78.9 passer rating allowed, 53.5 PFF grade (32nd of 52 starters)
The silver lining to Anthony Barr’s injury was that the Vikings got to see an entire season of Eric Wilson as a full-time starter, rather than a fill in or base package linebacker. He played 96% of the team’s defensive snaps and all of his strengths and weaknesses were on display.
On the strength side, Wilson is a legitimate playmaker. He led all linebackers with three interceptions and his three sacks and 11 pressures came on just 74 pass rushes, which made for the 16th best pass rush efficiency among traditional linebackers.
His coverage work was also very good. Wilson gave up just 7.5 yards per completion into his coverage, sixth best in the NFL. His PFF coverage grade ranked 15th.
The downside is that Wilson is simply not big enough to be good or even average at tackling or slowing down the run game. He had the third most missed tackles, per PFF, and graded as the league’s fifth worst run defender.
On a stacked defense, Wilson’s shortcomings may have been covered up but he received very little help from the defensive line (which once upon a time would have had Linval Joseph taking up two blockers in front of the linebackers).
Wilson proved he can be a starting linebacker and difference maker. As an upcoming free agent, the timing was good for him. However, if there was a chance of Wilson sneaking up and stealing Anthony Barr’s job, that probably went off the table when his issues versus the run became apparent.
Eric Kendricks
Stat line: 754 snaps, 107 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 10 QB pressures, 60.5 passer rating allowed, 82.6 PFF grade (third of 52 starters)
There might be a handful of players who are just as good as Eric Kendricks but there is nobody better. Over the last two years, Kendricks has elevated his game to an All-Pro level that is matched by very few around the league. In fact, Kendricks was one of only four players who received PFF grades above 80 as the NFL has shifted to passing systems that take advantage of manipulating linebackers and running against empty boxes that leave linebackers to fend for themselves against offensive linemen.
Kendricks has truly outrageous instincts in pass coverage, ranking No. 1 in passer rating allowed with the next best player being 15.3 points worse. His three interceptions were all game-changing plays. There were only six other linebackers who allowed a QB rating against under 90.
In addition to his marvelous play, Kendricks was the Vikings’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee for his work in the Twin Cities. He is the definition of a franchise player.
Todd Davis
Stat line: 281 snaps, 35 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 QB pressure, 119.7 passer rating allowed, 60.6 PFF grade (35th of 99 starters + rotational players)
With depth extremely lacking heading into the season, the Vikings picked up Todd Davis at the last minute. As a four-year starter for Denver, Davis was about the highest end you could expect for someone coming off their couch to play any type of role.
The undersized veteran rarely saw the field until Kendricks got hurt prior to a Week 13 matchup with Jacksonville. Davis played his spot the rest of the way. The difference, of course, was massive but that would be the case with Kendricks and any backup.
Davis finished the season with four games in which he played 50 or more snaps and graded as an average player. He did enough be retained as an in-case-of-emergency linebacker and special teamer.
Troy Dye
Stat line: 201 snaps, 28 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 1 QB pressure, 119.5 passer rating allowed, 28.8 PFF grade
We often talk about cornerbacks being in over their heads as rookies but linebackers might have it even worse. That was extremely apparently with the fourth-round pick from Oregon. Of all the linebackers who played at least 200 snaps, Dye graded the lowest by PFF. He was not close to ready to play in the NFL this year.
Dye came out of college as a cover linebacker but his coverage stats (albeit in a small sample) were troublesome. He ranked second-to-last in yards per coverage snap among LBs with at least 70 coverage snaps and sixth worst in run stop percentage (min. 100 run defense snaps).
None of this is to suggest Dye can be labeled a bust yet but he also didn’t show signs of being the next linebacker in line after Anthony Barr either. He looks like a player who will need a few years of development to have a shot as a starter.
Hardy Nickerson Jr.
Stat line: 102 snaps, 14 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0 QB pressures, 29.9 PFF grade
Nickerson fell into the category of another emergency backup linebacker and he played like it. He did pick off Drew Brees but struggled mightily when he was asked to play even limited snaps.
Anthony Barr
Stat line: 94 snaps, six tackles, 0.0 sacks, 1 QB pressure, 47.5 PFF grade
The 2020 season was lost as soon as it started for the Vikings’ Pro Bowl linebacker. Barr got injured in the first half of the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and was forced to miss the entire rest of the season. His value probably went up though. For years Mike Zimmer has argued that Barr’s value isn’t easily quantified by PFF grades or sack totals. We saw that this year when he was away. Filling gaps against the run, recognizing route combinations and closing out passing lanes, communicating and leading the defense. All those things were missed, making the Vikings’ decision on his contract situation harder.
Blake Lynch
Stat line: 77 snaps, 12 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0 pressures, 34.1 PFF grade
Lynch was in over his head in the small amount of action he got. He’ll have a chance to compete for a depth/special teams position next year.
The contracts
Anthony Barr — Set to make $15.1 million on the cap in 2021. Release or trade would create $7.2 million. His deal runs through 2023.
Eric Kendricks — Carries a $12.4 million cap number next season. Cap hits remain under $14 million through 2023. Release or trade would create only $2.4 million in space.
Eric Wilson — Unrestricted free agent
Todd Davis — Unrestricted free agent
Troy Dye — Year 2 of his rookie deal, under $1 million
Hardy Nickerson Jr. — Unrestricted free agent
Blake Lynch — Year 2 of his rookie deal, under $1 million
Options
The Vikings have a tough choice on their hands with Anthony Barr. Despite it becoming clear throughout the season how much he was missed, Barr’s $15.1 million cap hit is untenable. The only players on the team scheduled to have higher cap numbers next year are Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter and only Bobby Wagner is more expensive to his team in 2021 among non-edge rushing LBs.
That means the options begin with restructuring Barr’s contract in order to create some extra space and keeping the long-time linebacker duo together.
The Vikings could seek a trade partner for Barr. There are some teams (including the New York Jets, who once tried to sign him) that may see a 3-4 outside linebacker in Barr and believe he could make more of an impact in the pass rush than he presently does for the Vikings. However, the trade value would not be high considering his contract and the cap going down.
If Barr isn’t a Viking next year, it would appear more likely that it’s because he was released as a cap casualty.
If the Vikings do cut Barr, they’ll suddenly have all sorts of directions, from drafting a linebacker to signing Eric Wilson to looking for an inexpensive option on the free agent market.
Cutting Barr would suddenly put the Vikings in the conversation for Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons in the first round. Parsons is considered as the favorite to be the top selected traditional linebacker in the draft. CBS Sports lists six linebackers in the top 50 players. But the Vikings have so many other needs on defense that spending a first-round pick on a linebacker would not be ideal.
If they believe Wilson’s production could improve against the run with Michael Pierce returning, having him replace Barr would save cap space while retaining a playmaking LB who is very familiar with Mike Zimmer’s defense.
Outside of Wilson, there are a few bang-for-buck linebackers hitting the free agent market. Here are some top LB free agents who played 55% of snaps and how they graded by PFF (out of 52 starters):
TEN — Jayon Brown — 14th
Cleveland — BJ Goodson — 15th
Vegas — Nicholas Morrow — 18th
NYJ — Neville Hewitt — 22nd
There’s also the matter of the No. 3 linebacker spot. The Vikings probably thought Ben Gedeon was going to be that run-stuffing player for a long time but injuries cut his career short. It did not appear Troy Dye was either ready or fit to play a base package role. Maybe they would consider bringing Todd Davis back for that spot because the Vikings can’t afford to spend much on that role but they do need an in-case-of-emergency fill-in player like Wilson was for several years.
The future at LB
The most likely scenario is that the Vikings restructure or re-work Anthony Barr’s contract, possibly converting base salary into bonuses. Mike Zimmer has pounded the table for Barr in years past, arguing that his value to the defense is far greater than metrics would suggest. Plus cutting him would mean adding another spot to fill on a defense that already has needs at all levels.
With that said, the team’s commitment to keeping players like Barr has played a role in their cap situation. There is a case to choose Wilson because the things he does best (namely making plays in coverage) translate to the most value in a pass-heavy league.
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This group is one of the more interesting off-season stories to follow in my opinion. I suspect we'll be unable to retain Wilson as some team out there will be infatuated with his cover skills and will offer him a sizeable contract.
Count me in as someone that does believe Barr's full value is not encapsulated by PFF grades. But his contract is difficult to swallow. I don't see how they don't re-work his contract as I simply cannot see Zimmer letting him go. Given the lack of depth at the position, I don't think they can let Barr go. Which leads me to the last off-season LB story...
...which is can the Vikings have success in drafting or acquiring depth for this position? It's been a feast-or-famine position for the Vikings when it comes to the draft. Obviously they've had a couple of home runs at the position, and while it's not a position they've drafted very often, most have been in and our of the league with the exception of Ben Gedeon and Gerald Hodges (interesting story as to why he was traded to the 49'ers).
Bottom line, the Vikings either need to either find a quality depth LB in the draft or find one in FA, especially with Wilson likely gone.
I feel better about the Vikings LB situation if we pretend Kendricks has Barr’s cap hit and vice versa, lol