The future of the Vikings part 5: Offensive line
Lots of questions face an offensive line that has struggled for years
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the course of a few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Season overview and key stats
Overall, the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive line did not score highly by the numbers. Pro Football Focus ranked them 29th in pass blocking and 18th in run blocking. The Vikings were 23rd in sack percentage. Kirk Cousins was the third most pressured QB at 38.6%.
The broad question is how much of their production was impacted by circumstances. For three straight years, the Vikings have had largely healthy offensive lines and ranked in the bottom tier in pass protection. How much is due to Cousins ranking 22nd of 29 QBs in time from snap to release? How much is due to the team’s run-first approach putting Cousins in straight dropback situations (i.e. third-and-long)? How much is the focus on building the O-line to run block?
Quick primer on PFF grades before we dive into each player’s season:
— Grades below 60 mean below average. Around 60 are considered average. Anything above 75 is good. Anything above 85 is elite.
— Grades aren’t all created equal. Two players could have a 60 grade but play very differently. One might be consistently average while the other has ups and downs. Grades have been shown to be impacted greatly by competition, situation and teammates.
Alright, off we go…
Brian O’Neill
The Vikings’ 2018 second-round pick came pretty close to playing left tackle this year. When the Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue, it appeared they might have to cut Riley Reiff to create cap space and bump O’Neill into his spot. Instead Reiff re-worked his contract and O’Neill put together the best season of his young career at right tackle.
Overall, the Vikings’ highly athletic lineman graded by PFF 22nd out of 59 offensive lineman with at least 600 snaps. He was one of the NFL’s elite run blockers, grading eighth best in that area. In pass blocking, which has been more of his specialty in past years, he was 39th.
The interesting thing about O’Neill is that his numbers have always been better than his grades. He was 27th in pass blocking efficiency, gave up three sacks (20th) and 28 total pressures (29th).
One likely explanation is that O’Neill’s athleticism allows him to recover after initially getting beat. So PFF might ding him for losing the snap but he still finds a way to prevent a sack. In 2019, O’Neill only gave up just one sack and still graded 29th in pass blocking.
What makes O’Neill particularly valuable is that he rarely has bad games. He only allowed more than three pressures once all season, never gave up multiple sacks in a game and only graded below 55 by PFF (which would qualify as a poor game) three times — two of those were matching up against Khalil Mack.
While he didn’t take a step forward into the elite category of NFL tackles, O’Neill has now put together a large sample size of being very good and healthy. He has proven to be a legitimate run blocking weapon and worthy of being a staple of the future if he chooses to sign an extension.
Riley Reiff
The Vikings couldn’t have asked for much more from their veteran tackle this year in pass protection. Reiff was one of 10 tackles in the NFL to allow one sack or less this year with at least 600 snaps. He was 11th overall in pass blocking efficiency.
Similar to O’Neill, Reiff’s PFF grades weren’t quite as kind as his pass protection numbers. He finished 34th of 59 overall, 30th in pass blocking and 42nd in run blocking. Reiff also only had one game in which he gave up more than three pressures.
This year marked the third straight season in Minnesota that Reiff graded in the category of being very solid. The only time he had a sub-70 (which is a little above average) was 2017 when he battled injury.
While the Vikings have tried to replace him (remember the Trent Williams rumors?), the veteran captain has given them league-average play for the entirety of his contract, making the signing an overall success, especially compared to the Vikings’ previous left tackles.
Garrett Bradbury
At the end of the year, Mike Zimmer revealed that Garrett Bradbury had been dealing with an injury.
“Bradbury is a good player,” Zimmer said. “He was dinged up a little bit this season but he's a tough kid, never says anything, doesn't want to miss any time.”
It’s hard to say exactly when that injury might have come without more clarification but there was a distinct drop in his PFF grades over the final three weeks of the season.
In weeks 1-14, Bradbury’s numbers showed signs of improvement. Through Week 14, he was 20th of 32 centers by overall grade, 27th in pass blocking and 15th in run blocking. At that point, he was better in overall grade, pass blocking and run blocking from his rookie year.
While 27th isn’t ideal, he was going along the O’Neill path of hanging on to avoid giving up sacks even when he was beaten. Bradbury gave up two sacks through Week 14.
But over the final three weeks he was last in pass blocking efficiency, allowed three sacks and saw his pass blocking overall sink from trending toward average to 32nd. Two of his three lowest graded pass blocking performances came in Weeks 16 and 17.
The performances and continuity around Bradbury have also been problematic in his first two seasons. Last year he opened his career with Pat Elflein, who was moving positions, at left guard and veteran Josh Kline on the right side. This year, veteran backup Dakota Dozier started the entire year and four different players were at right guard (Elflein, Dru Samia, Brett Jones and Ezra Cleveland).
Here’s how guards with at least 150 snaps next to Bradbury have pass blocked over the last two years:
Here’s how Bradbury’s guard teammates have performed by PFF grade (keeping in mind that between 60-70 is around average):
By mid-season, it was clear opponents were repeatedly attacking the Vikings’ interior, which forced Bradbury to handle a great deal of stunts, twists and blitzes.
Two years into the first-rounder’s career, it still feels like we do not have a complete picture of what he can be. Progress was made in Year 2 but how he might fare with improvement to his left and right and with fewer straight dropback situations is yet to be seen.
Dakota Dozier
Before 2020, the highest number of snaps Dozier ever played was 360 in 2019. Before that, 248 with the Jets in 2017. This year he was on the field for over 1,000 plays and it was clear he was not fit for the role.
He led all guards in QB pressures allowed with 46. The next highest player gave up 39 pressures. Dozier was also the lowest graded overall guard and pass blocking guard.
There’s no sugarcoating this one. It was stunning that the Vikings went forward with Dozier as the starter and he put together the poorest guard season of anyone in the NFL.
This does not fall on Dozier’s shoulders. He was a proven capable fill-in player for five years before joining the Vikings. It was negligent to force him into a starting role. Asking him to play this much actively worked against the team’s passing success.
Ezra Cleveland
After picking Cleveland in the second round, the Vikings immediately moved him from tackle to guard. In training camp, he didn’t take any reps at the tackle position and that remained the case through the entire season during the games, including when Brian O’Neill got hurt against Tampa Bay.
Cleveland didn’t start right off the bat, instead he sat behind Pat Elflein in Week 1 and then Dru Samia in Weeks 2-5. When the rookie did get his chance, it was a rollercoaster. His first game came against Atlanta’s superstar defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and he allowed five pressures and posted a 27.5 pass blocking grade. The following week, however, he was terrific against the Packers. That up and down trend continued, though he did have a strong stretch from Weeks 13-16.
From the perspective of Cleveland getting experience in Year 1 and showing that he could battle through ups and downs, 2020 was a win. He showed plenty of potential and room where he could grow into a quality lineman. But from the perspective of finding out whether he can be the team’s future left tackle, it was a lost year. We still have no sample size on Cleveland as a tackle.
Brett Jones
The mystery of Brett Jones.
Jones has been so decidedly better than Dozier as a pass blocker through his career that it’s hard to make sense of the fact that he rode the pine until Cleveland got hurt. Jones’s PFF grades in pass blocking in three years with at least 100 snaps are: 82.1, 70.3 and 76.1.
In fact, he was the highest graded Vikings offensive lineman this year.
While Jones’s lack of athleticism doesn’t fit the model of what the Vikings want as an offensive lineman, his production is vastly better than other players they have used at guard. Maybe they believe it would fade over a bigger sample but he played 988 snaps for the Giants in 2017 and graded a 70.2 overall.
Dru Samia
The Vikings had hopes for Samia after he had a “redshirt” year in 2019 as a rookie. It became quickly clear that he wasn’t ready to play in 2020. Samia gave up 14 pressures in just 136 pass blocking snaps and failed to grade above 50 in any game. The Vikings had no choice but to turn to Cleveland at right guard.
Rashod Hill
Interestingly if Riley Reiff had elected to go elsewhere after the Ngakoue trade, they were planning on starting Hill. That indicates they believed he’s made progress and was ready for a starting role. With both tackles remaining healthy, he barely saw the field but performed well overall with a 72.4 grade in 120 snaps. Hill is as reliable as swing tackles come.
The contracts
Riley Reiff — Set to make $13.9 million on the cap. Creates $11.7 million if he’s released.
Garrett Bradbury — Will have a cap number of $3.5 million on the third year of his rookie deal.
Ezra Cleveland — $1.3 million cap hit on second year of his rookie deal.
Dakota Dozier — Unrestricted free agent
Brett Jones — Unrestricted free agent
Rashod Hill — Unrestricted free agent
Options
There are many, many options.
The first decision the Vikings have to make is whether they plan to restructure or release Riley Reiff. With their current cap situation, playing on a deal that carries almost a $14 million cap hit isn’t tenable.
If they keep Reiff, Cleveland could continue to play guard and the Vikings would be one player away from putting together a solid starting five. The free agent market has two star guards in Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney but there’s a steep drop after that. Players like Cincinnati’s Quinton Spain, Seattle’s Ethan Pocic, Forrest Lamp of the Chargers and Chicago’s German Ifedi all fall into the category of fill-in players.
The Vikings would still be wise in that case to draft another offensive lineman in the first three rounds.
If they move on from Reiff, there are dozens of different ways they could go. The Vikings could bring back Rashod Hill to start and draft a tackle. This year’s offensive line draft class is particularly impressive so they could pick a top player in the first or wait until the second and trade back in to pick up a tackle.
They could also move Cleveland to left or right tackle and give him a chance to play his natural position.
The Vikings could look move Brian O’Neill to left tackle and sign a reasonably-priced right tackle like Kelvin Beachum (Arizona) and look to replace the other guard spot with a cheap free agent. They could also move Cleveland to left or right tackle and give him a chance to play his natural position.
There was some buzz about Oli Udoh after 2019 but the fact that he was mostly inactive did not point to him being more than a developmental project.
The future at OL
The most likely outcome is that they work something out with Reiff and attempt to find the next Josh Kline who can give them average play at guard. The Vikings have so many needs on the defensive side, it’s hard to see them pouring huge dollars into the line or drafting a tackle in the first round, even if it would be a justifiable move.
If Reiff stays in the mix, the line doesn’t feel that far away from being decent from left to right but the Vikings need to look closely at the things that cause their poor pass blocking performances that go beyond the talent of the linemen. Certainly they can’t make Kirk Cousins a mobile QB but they might be able to put their line in better spots.
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Matthew, love the articles and the podcasts. I appreciate your hard work and my subscription has been worth every penny. What made me log in to send you my appreciation was the Reusse podcast. Great stories, many that I never heard before, and I was laughing along with you. Especially liked Burnsies “clinic”. Lol. Thanks again.
Matthew, if both Rieff and Hill said they would come back to start at LT at the same low price who would you pick?
Do you see enough in Ezras frame to add bulk and hold up against the mon-stars at RG? Or would moving to LG be better for him vs the twists and stunts in our division?