The future of the Vikings part 4: Wide receivers/tight ends
The Vikings' top two receivers were fantastic... will they add more this offseason?
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Season overview and key stats
You have seen this movie before. Actually, multiple versions of it. You have seen the one where the rookie wide receiver takes the league by storm. You have seen the one where the Vikings have two top-10 receivers and you have definitely seen the one where they couldn’t solve the No. 3 spot. One major difference between recent Vikings history and 2020 is that we saw the turning of a new leaf at the tight end position. Let’s get into each player’s season and how the group performed…
Justin Jefferson
We have to begin our overview of Justin Jefferson in March when Stefon Diggs was traded to the Buffalo Bills.
At the time of the trade, it seemed as if the Vikings were playing with fire: Wide receivers in previous drafts hadn’t always made the biggest impact right away and the Vikings’ previous first-rounder failed to earn a second contract. In the 2019 draft class, only one rookie gained more than 1,000 yards. Zero achieved that in 2018 and 2017.
But on draft night, the Vikings received an incredible favor from the Philadelphia Eagles, who passed on Jefferson to pick Jalen Reagor. The Vikings used the first-round pick from the Diggs trade to take Jefferson, giving perfect symmetry to it all.
While there was some debate over whether Jefferson would end up as a slot receiver because he was used inside at LSU, his college production and NFL Combine performance were both elite in the draft class. He caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards in his final college season and the website Relative Athletic Scores put him in the 97th percentile of athletes at his position.
As soon as he got on the field at training camp, it was evident the Vikings had something special athletically but offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak slow played putting too much on Jefferson’s plate early on because of the limited offseason and the fact that Jefferson started on the COVID/reserve list and missed a few days of early camp.
For the first two weeks, Jefferson played limited snaps while Bisi Johnson got the start at outside receiver. In Week 3, Jefferson earned his first start and gained 175 yards on seven catches, including a 71-yard touchdown in which he dance into the end zone.
From there forward, he was nothing short of a superstar. Jefferson finished as the second highest graded receiver in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, ranked fourth in yards per reception, eighth in yards after catch, third in total yards and 11th in QB rating when targeted (116.4).
He broke Randy Moss’s rookie records for catches and yards and broke the modern NFL record for yards by a rookie receiver.
Yet it still felt at times like the Vikings underutilized Jefferson.
In terms of targets per game, six of the other 10 best PFF-graded receivers averaged more than Jefferson and he was far behind the likes of Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen.
Jefferson especially had a tough time getting looks his way early in games.
Not only did nearly every top PFF graded receiver see more work than Jefferson in the first half but 66% of his 1,400 yards came in the second half.
That could be because the Vikings leaned most on their first-round pick when they were in trouble. Kirk Cousins threw his way 77 times when trailing and 48 when the Vikings were tied or ahead. Jefferson only had 16 catches on 24 targets all year in the first quarter but had 28 catches and 37 targets in the fourth.
One explanation is that the offense was set up to look to Jefferson downfield. Here’s an example of his route chart on targets against Dallas, a game in which he picked up a solid 86 yards but his production came on just three catches.
The bottom line on Jefferson’s rookie season is: He showed to be a franchise-changing receiver whose rookie year was no fluke based on his skill set and work ethic.
However, if you felt like the offense could have been centered around him more, especially early in games, you were right. With an entire offseason to design the offense (for whoever is the offensive coordinator) with Jefferson as a centerpiece, there should be expectations that his role grows in 2021.
Adam Thielen
There are few players in the NFL as consistent as Adam Thielen.
Every healthy since he became a full-time starter has seen Thielen grade between 79.9 and 89.4 by Pro Football Focus, putting him somewhere between well above average and elite. He’s never dropped more than five passes in a season and never dipped below 12 yards per reception or below a 65% completion percentage when targeted.
This year Kirk Cousins was wildly successful when targeting his veteran wideout, producing 74 completions on 106 targets with 14 touchdowns, good for a 120.5 rating when throwing his way (per PFF).
Since Cousins arrived in Minnesota, his line when targeting Thielen looks like this: 229 for 317, 2,895 yards, 29 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 120.3 rating. There were only six receivers in all of 2020 who had a higher QB rating when targeted than 120.
The biggest takeaway from Thielen’s season is simply that he showed no signs of aging as he entered his 30s. His average depth of target remained stable and he ranked 16th in deep catches (over 20 yards in the air) and 13th in deep catch percentage.
Another part of Thielen’s successful 2020 campaign is that he played the role of veteran mentor to Jefferson. For the last five years, he’d been part of a duo but he adapted quickly to guide the rising rookie star.
Irv Smith Jr.
The offseason narrative surrounding Smith Jr. was that he was primed to take the next big step in his career and prove he was ready to take over as the No. 1 tight end. During training camp that appeared to be the case but through the first four games it was unclear whether he was going to be involved in the offense. The second-round pick in 2019 caught just two passes in the first quarter of the season.
In Seattle, however, something clicked. He made four grabs for 64 yards and rolled the rest of the way, catching 28 passes in nine games (he missed four games due to injury). From Week 5 to the end of the season, Smith Jr. was the eight highest graded overall tight end and fourth highest graded in receiving. In that time span, Kirk Cousins had an outrageous 148.0 rating when throwing his way.
One thing that separates Smith Jr. from many tight ends is his ability to go downfield. Per PFF: On throws over 10 yards through the air, Smith Jr. caught eight of 13 throws for 168 yards.
As a blocker, Smith Jr. did not grade highly. He ranked 32nd of 26 tight ends in run blocking grade and 45th in pass protection (albeit he only had 19 pass blocking snaps all year but allowed four pressures). It isn’t unusual for tight ends to require multiple years in the NFL to become quality blockers.
Smith Jr.’s biggest test came in the final three weeks when Kyle Rudolph went down with an injury. The 22-year-old tight end caught 11 passes for 110 yards and scored two touchdowns, leaving a good chance the Vikings feel confident going forward with him.
Kyle Rudolph
For most quarterbacks during Kyle Rudolph’s career, he was a security blanket. When Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford were dealing with the tackle combination of TJ Clemmings and Matt Kalil, they always seemed to have a sense that Rudolph would be underneath for 7-10 yards. From 2015-2017, he averaged 91 targets, 65 catches, seven touchdowns per year and always sat between 9-11 yards per catch.
For whatever reason, Cousins did not follow that tradition. From 2018-2020, Rudolph’s numbers dropped significantly. In 2020, he was an afterthought, only catching 28 passes on 35 targets and one touchdown.
The rise of Smith Jr. as part of the offense certainly ate into Rudolph’s opportunities. Once upon a time, Rudolph played nearly every snap but this year he was on the field for fewer than 40 snaps four times.
You might think the drop in targets would correlate to a dip in effectiveness but that wasn’t the case. From 2015-2017, QBs had a 108.5 rating throwing to Rudolph. Over the last three years, Cousins has a 122.6 rating throwing his way ( and 116.0 in 2020).
He did have one very good stretch this year, between Week 9 and Week 12 when the offense was ticking. He caught 17 passes on 18 targets for 199 yards during that run.
In blocking terms, he graded about average in run blocking and only had a handful of pass blocking snaps per game.
Rudolph was the same player as he’s always been, just used less.
Chad Beebe
In 2018 and 2019, Beebe made the active roster only to see his playing time be short lived due to injury. This year he was fully healthy but was rarely used until late in the season. His breakout game as a receiver (not so much a punt returner) came against Carolina when he caught seven passes on seven targets for 63 yards including the game-winning touchdown.
Overall he caught 20 passes on 30 targets for 201 yards (44 of which came on a Week 17 touchdown against Detroit). Beebe also returned nine punts for 42 yards and had two fumbles.
Tyler Conklin
Persistence pays off. Over the first two years of Tyler Conklin’s career, he toiled away as the No. 3 tight end, rarely seeing the ball come his way. Between 2018 and 2019, he was targeted only 17 times. But Mike Zimmer insisted that he was impressed with Conklin in practice and that he would thrive when he got an opportunity. Zimmer was right.
When Kyle Rudolph went down, Conklin caught 15 passes over the final four weeks 178 yards and one impressive touchdown against Chicago. He showed flashes of route running ability, strong hands and enough quickness to run after the catch.
Bisi Johnson
Coming out of camp, Johnson was given the No. 2 receiver spot while the Vikings got Justin Jefferson acclimated to their offense. In two games the starter, he caught four passes on eight targets for 80 yards and that was that. From Week 3, when Jefferson took over, until Week 12, the 2019 seventh-round pick saw just four targets.
Similar to Beebe, he had his best game of the year against Carolina with Adam Thielen sidelined on the COVID/reserve list, catching seven passes for 74 yards. That game made up half of his season total.
Johnson’s lack of effectiveness came as a disappointment considering he made 33 grabs in 2019, most while playing in place of Thielen.
Brandon Dillon
The Vikings brought Dillon up off the practice squad but he got banged up in Week 13 and did not see the field after that. He made one catch against Carolina.
Tajae Sharpe
The Vikings took another dip in the bargain bin with Sharpe and he ended up with zero receptions and three targets, which is more than Kendall Wright and Jordan Taylor.
The contracts
Justin Jefferson will enter Year 2 of his rookie deal and carry a cap hit of $2.9 million.
Adam Thielen has a $13.5 million hit next year. After 2021, it may make sense to re-work his deal, which goes through 2024 and has cap numbers north of $14 million in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Irv Smith Jr. is on Year 3 of his rookie deal and will cost $1.9 million
Kyle Rudolph is set to have a $9.4 million cap hit. The Vikings could cut him and create $5.1 million in space.
Chad Beebe is a restricted free agent
Bisi Johnson is on Year 2 of his rookie deal and will make under $1 million
Tyler Conklin is on the fourth year of his rookie deal and will make under $1 million
All contract info via OverTheCap
Options
The first thing the Vikings must figure out is whether they are going to move on from Kyle Rudolph. Comparing his declining production with the rise of Irv Smith Jr., it appears to be a foregone conclusion that they will cut him. It is a longshot that any team would trade for an over-30 tight end coming off his worse year at a price tag north of $9 million.
There are three ways the Vikings can go with the receiver/tight end positions: Leave it be, improve or stack it up.
Stack it up
Both the free agent and draft classes are stacked. Some of these players will probably re-sign with their teams but these are the top names on the market:
Marvin Jones
Allen Robinson
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Nelson Agholor
Corey Davis
Curtis Samuel
Chris Godwin
Will Fuller
TY Hilton
Not all of those receivers are financially feasible for the Vikings (especially Robinson) but with Justin Jefferson on his rookie contract, the Vikings are actually only set to spend around $19 million in cap space on receiver. There are six teams over $30 million.
The draft class is expected to have around a half dozen first-round receivers, including Alabama stars Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Minnesota Rashod Bateman and Purdue’s Rondale Moore.
Any one of the aforementioned free agent and draft receivers would have the potential to give the Vikings the best group of weapons in the NFL. It would, however, require a change to their personnel groupings and potentially their overall philosophy. The Vikings used three-receiver sets the least in the NFL last year. Though that might have also been based on their talent, which was stronger at TE2 than WR3. The Rams run a similar offensive system to the Vikings and they have often based it out of three-receiver sets.
Improve
Even as a team that doesn’t run with three or more receivers that often, the Vikings could determine that it isn’t ideal to have WR3 end the season with 20 catches. When they are in passing situations, opponents focused so much on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen that Kirk Cousins was sometimes left without another option.
The Tajae Sharpe route has not worked but there are plenty of mid-tier receivers in free agency. A few examples:
Breshad Perriman
Rashard Higgins
Chris Conley
Cam Sims
Willie Snead
Josh Reynolds
Keelan Cole
None of these players are franchise altering but they are all capable of filling in for Thielen/Jefferson in a pinch or giving Cousins another receiver who can make plays from time to time. They are also likely to be very affordable considering the free agency cash is going to the other list of receivers.
Leave it be
Without a ton of salary cap room to work with, they could use a later-round selection to add to the receiver room and continue to use Beebe and Johnson as just-in-case players and use them in the occasional three-wide situation. That would mean leaning heavily on Irv Smith Jr. and Tyler Conklin and running the vast majority of plays out of two tight end or two running back sets.
The future at WR
The most likely approach from the Vikings this offseason is that they look to add receivers from the middle tier of free agency and in the mid-to-late rounds. After two years of Beebe/Johnson as the backup combination, it would be surprising if they left those two as the backup plan for injuries to either Jefferson or Thielen.
The free agent receiver who makes the most sense as a deep threat is Breshad Perriman, who was very good with Tampa Bay in 2019 and still averaged more than 16 yards per catch for the lowly Jets.
With Mike Zimmer saying he wants to remain largely the same system wise if Gary Kubiak retires, the need for a star WR3 won’t likely be viewed as a huge priority.
That said, the Vikings did chase after Alshon Jeffrey prior to the 2017 season. After years of struggles to find a third receiver, there is a small chance that they will look to form the next version of Three Deep.
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Leave it be, but re negotiate Rudolf down to a market value contract for a guy on the wrong side of 30 coming off his worst year. From what I've read he's an asset and a "team guy" that would probably like to finish his career in Minnesota, so he might be willing to take a pay cut to stay home and keep playing. Also Dalvin Cook was a great check down option, went for 367 receiving yards 8.2 per catch and a td. I say try and renegotiate Kyle.
Jaelon Darden is a WR that I think I’d love the Vikings to snag in the mid rounds of the draft. Dude is electric with the ball in his hands and can return punts too.