The future of the Vikings, part 3: Running backs
Can the Vikings keep using Dalvin Cook the way they did in 2020?
Season overview and key stats
Dalvin Cook
The most prevalent topic surrounding Dalvin Cook in 2020 was his usage. And the most prevalent topic surround the other running backs in 2020 was their lack of usage. But before we dive into that, we need to look at Cook’s phenomenal season in which he not only was one of the best running backs in the NFL but was able to stay healthy for all but one-and-a-half games.
By Pro Football Focus’s grading system, only Derrick Henry finished higher among running backs with at least 150 carries. Cook finished fifth in yards per carry (5.0), which is significant because he ranks No. 2 among all active running backs in yards per carry for his career (4.8) and only Jamaal Charles, Barry Sanders, Derrick Henry, Napoleon Kaufman and Robert Smith have higher YPC since 1980.
Cook was responsible for a remarkable number of explosive plays, gaining more than 10 yards 46 times, which is a higher rate per rush than Henry.
You might have already guessed that Cook’s success wasn’t just a product of an offensive line built to run block but he was fifth in yards after contact and fifth in PFF’s “Elusive Rating*” as well.
*Elusive Rating is determined by forced missed tackles and yards after contact with touches
All said and done, Cook had a good case for being the best runner in the NFL.
Through the air, Cook was less of a factor than he was last year. He caught 44 passes compared to 53 in 2019 and saw his yards per target drop from 8.2 to 6.7. Cook’s receiving success is largely out of his control since the Vikings only use him in screens and swing passes.
He only lined up in a receiver position 32 times out of 670 snaps per PFF and was only targeted 17 times on throws past the line of scrimmage and zero times over 10 yards. It’s safe to say the Vikings left some meat on the bone there.
Now about his usage…
In 14 games, Cook had 356 touches, which ranked only behind Henry’s 397. If he’d played two more games, Cook would have very likely passed Henry for that mark.
Since 2015, the following players have had more than 350 touches in a single season (Cook is the only one to do it in 14 games):
2019 - Christian McCaffrey - 403
2019 - Ezekiel Elliott - 355
2018 - Ezekiel Elliott - 381
2018 - Saquon Barkley - 352
2017 - Le’Veon Bell - 406
2016 - David Johnson - 373
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott - 354
2015 - Adrian Peterson - 357
There are plenty of reasons to be wary on that list.
McCaffrey spent the vast majority of the 2020 season injured, Elliott dropped to just 4.0 yards per carry this year, Barkley was banged up in 2019 and missed all of 2020, Bell hasn’t averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry since 2016, Johnson has averaged under 800 yards rushing per 16 games since 2016 and Peterson got hurt following 2015.
Does that guarantee Cook will run into problems in 2021? Of course not. It does mean that the coaching staff’s reliance on him this season put him into rare air with his usage — air that has often been problematic in the future. They rode Cook and disregarded the recent history of the position despite having other competent backs.
It doesn’t appear that’s going to change.
“I think it’s important that we monitor Dalvin’s workload as we go forward,” Mike Zimmer said. “But like I said before, at the end of the ballgame, we need our best players in the game. Dalvin is not only one of our best players, but one of the best players in the NFL.”
Alexander Mattison
While the Vikings’ No. 2 back carried the ball just four fewer times in 2020 as 2019, that number is deceiving because 51 of his 96 carries came in three games in which Cook was either hurt or out for personal reasons in Week 17.
When he’s been given a chance, Mattison has been effective. He gained 4.5 yards per carry with a solid 2.9 average yards after contact and caught 13 passes for 125 yards. In the two games in which he had more than 20 carries, the former Boise State star gained 112 yards against Seattle and 95 against Detroit. His rushing grade by PFF ranked 12th among RBs with at least 75 carries.
Over two seasons, Mattison has proven that he’s a solid back. It’s worth wondering if some in the organization are disappointed that he isn’t used more after he was picked in the third round in 2018. The Vikings have not used him on the field at the same time as Cook or to regularly spell the starter.
Mike Boone
The sample size of plays involving Mike Boone is very small but he’s been successful when given a chance, rushing for 5.3 yards per carry since coming into the league in 2018. This year he saw just 11 runs for 59 yards.
Ameer Abdullah
The veteran back was used sparingly, gaining 42 yards on eight carries and catching eight passes for 58 yards.
The contracts
Dalvin Cook
If we weigh Dalvin Cook’s cap hit vs. production in 2020, he was a bargain. A massive bargain, in fact. He only carried a $4.6 million cap hit. In 2021, that could also be the case as the Pro Bowler will only have a $5.1 million hit.
But in 2022, things get more dicey. The Vikings will pay $12 million on the cap for their running back and per OverTheCap they won’t be able to cut him without taking on $9 million in dead cap space. The league may go to a 17-game season and see a boost in the cap by then but it’s uncertain what that jump might be considering the NFL played largely without fans this year.
By 2023, we reach either cut or restructure territory with a $14 million cap hit and $7 million in savings if he’s let go.
Alexander Mattison, Mike Boone, Ameer Abdullah
Mattison will take up just over $1 million on the cap in 2021, Boone is a restricted free agent and Abdullah is an unrestricted free agent.
Options
As far as on-field options go, the Vikings could dial back the number of touches Cook sees per game and give him more low-impact touches i.e. catches out of the backfield and/or draw run plays. For example, in New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is often used in a receiving role and he and Mark Ingram/Latavius Murray split reps for the entirety of Kamara’s time in the NFL. Kamara has never cleared 200 rushes or 300 touches in a season.
As far as backup running backs go, it would make sense to bring back both Boone and Abdullah because of their special teams ability and familiarity with the system. If they were interested in adding another receiving-style running back to the mix at a reasonable salary, there are a number of quality free agents like Matt Breida, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson and Jerick McKinnon.
In the category of far-out options, the Vikings could seek to trade Cook going on the assumption that his value will never be higher and that they have many needs beyond running back and have a backup who can fill the role effectively.
The future at RB
The most likely scenario is that the Vikings will continue to ride Cook as the centerpiece of their offense and give him 350-plus touches again in a similar style to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a potential change at offensive coordinator, the team’s philosophy isn’t likely to be any different.
However, a new OC might have some new ideas for ways in which to get Cook the ball that involve some creativity with screen passes/jet sweets etc.
The future also includes everyone holding their breath. Recent history has not been kind to the overused running back. Historically there have been some backs who sustained heavy workloads but they are few and far between. With two more years before the Vikings can reasonably move on, they have to hope that this year’s usage didn’t hurt Cook’s future prospects, especially when the team figures to be setting higher expectations for the next two years.
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Hell of a back, who didn't receive one All Pro vote... WTH?
If there’s a market I’d trade him but I’m in favor of a mild tear down arms rebuild.