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Jan 7, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

A lot to unpack here, re: Kirk. He certainly has not outplayed his contract, and he’s a drag on the rest of the cap. I would prefer a trade (lol) and/or a QB in the first round this year. I doubt Rick/Zimmer are going to gamble their future on a rookie QB starting next year, so we’re stuck with Kirk, and that makes me sad.

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author

I agree that the risk is probably too much... feels like since 2018 theyve been operating under pressure, which doesn't give a lot of freedom to make long term moves

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Jan 7, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

A wonderful read, spells out all the pros and cons of Kirk and his contract clearly. All the data validates your points on Kirk over the years and what we see watching these games. Good Kirk/bad Kirk and how to you maximize the former and minimize the latter (like everyone else, I say improve your guard play--a seemingly mysterious insight to share with Mike and his coaching staff).

Two thoughts:

First, related to the trade fantasies Tampa Bay does seem like as good a fit for Cousins as any team in the league. Loaded with receivers and Arians likes statues who can throw the deep ball so Kirk's your prototype, plus a need to win-now mentality. I liked the Denver mention in one of your podcasts because John Elway seems desperate enough to go for Kirk, but now that he's been kicked to the curb that dream is over.

Second, I think Vikings drafting a QB is still another year away based on Rick and Zim's need to win now and Kirk's contract making 2023 (as insane as that sounds right now) more viable for a QB to take over from Kirk after the $41 balloon payment is made on his mortgage/contract.

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author

Thank you so much Rob. I agree with you on the matter of drafting a QB. They need this year's draft pick to come in and help right away -- but we see the problem with drafting that way over the last few years (sans Jefferson, of course). Picking a QB this year makes more sense because the guy can develop for a year but nothing indicates they are thinking that way. But that can always change with this team haha. Thanks for reading!

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I’m with you on the QB developing for a year, but I think Kirk’s with us for 2 more years so that’s why I say draft him in 2022. He still sits behind Kirk for that season. And while 2021 Vikings could well be a better team next season I don’t think that means a better record (based on the divisions they’ll play). So they still end up with pick 13 or 14 in 2022 draft. God, I know, I sound like I’m plotting the 2024 election or something.

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Jan 7, 2021Liked by Matthew Coller

NFC Offensive Player of the week, against the lowly Lions, will forever be the only thing Cousins ever wins at the end of a season!.

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"For example, Cousins was the second best QB in terms of rating with a clean pocket (per PFF)".

Imagine if we paired an above average offensive line with our highly paid QB (the way a lot of other teams do) instead of having two of the worst guards in all of football protecting him.

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I just listened to you and Courtney on this podcast. Great stuff Matt!

How much say does Zimmer have in the roster? Do we know the actual percentage? Does he have full control over the defensive roster?

I feel like a lot of the decisions made since he has been here have not been the normal moves Speilman has made in the past. I felt we hung on to a lot of defensive guys too long and did not cycle in some new young guys in the defense. Instead, we waited until now to replace 9 guys on defense with young guys we don’t know a lot about. It just feels like Speilman would have controlled this differently without Mike Zimmer’s say on this defense.

I’d like to hear what you think about this.

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author

Hey thanks for listening Dan! I don't have an actual percentage but I can tell you what Spielman told me in 2017 when I did a one-on-one with him: Zimmer gives the front office what he needs and they get it for him. So I would assume that hanging onto everyone and having a sudden transition rather than a slow one was because Zimmer didn't want any of those guys to go. Another part is managing the cap, they had to keep giving extensions to lower cap hits rather than letting contracts run out. I can't say with certainty how much different it would have been handled if the front office had 100% say in these moves but I suspect something like Barr's deal wouldn't have happened

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The most depressing aspect of being a fan for this team is the realistic reality that Cousins will be our QB for at least another 5-6 years. The extension was extremely concerning, and the 2022 cap hit...I'm generally supportive of the front office because they aren't a clown show like so many in the league are...but the history with Cousins and the leverage he and his agent will continue to have makes it feel like he's our QB until her retires.

It's almost enough to make me stop being a fan until he's out of here. The square peg that is Kirk and the round hole that is the rest of this team has me borderline apathetic.

But I'll keep supporting Matthew.

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Lies, damn lies, and statistics... KFC is an above average QB in terms of throwing skills, a below average QB in terms of reading defenses, a poor QB at making plays off script, and one of the worst in the league in terms of pocket presence. That is not a QB who can take you to a Super Bowl, not matter what his bogus stats say.

Look, I was all for bringing KFC to the Vikings, but the extension was just a HUGE mistake -- and fans here don't seem to get that KFC and his agent have set up the Vikings for another extension after this one. So, unless the Vikings plan to actually draft OGs with premium picks or sign free agent OGs who are actually good (not the baffling signings of turnstiles like Compton and Dozier), then there is no point in having KFC on the team. Despite the gaudy stats, he just isn't a winner when if he doesn't have stout protection in front of him. And, to be honest, if you give most starting NFL QBs a great OL, they will do fairly well. I just don't see the value in KFC. He cannot beat good defenses or good defensive coordinators unless everything else is in place. And, Catch-22, with KFC's salary and our GM's commitment to keeping "our guys" (Barr, Cook, Thielen, Smith, Kendricks), there just isn't any money left to sign a good OL.

You can cite all the stats you want. We have all seen KFC's flaws:

1. Does not make any adjustments at the line of scrimmage, just seems to run whatever play has been called.

2. Routinely makes bad reads - e.g., any fan could have told him that whatever the defense looks like, you are better off throwing to Thielen, Diggs or Jefferson than throwing to CJ Ham, Treadwell or Beebe.

3. Bad reads are not limited to passing plays. How often in the Red Zone (especially inside the 5 yard line) do the Vikings line up in a totally obvious interior run play that the defense is aligned perfectly to defend -- and yet KFC runs the play as called anyway. This happens a lot.

4. KFC's desire to please coaches is greater than his interest in winning. You see this all the time in his decision making. How often is he OK throwing a check down in critical game situations where a check down basically means we don't convert at a critical time or even lose the game. A lot is the right answer.

5. KFC is terrible in 2-minute situations. We can argue is it the coaching, the play calls, or whatever, but the fact is that our 2-minute offense has been pathetic under KFC. Whereas a normal team that starts on its 20 yard line with 2 minutes left can usually get 2-3 first downs fairly easily (because the defense is keeping everything in front of it), how often do we see our KFC-led offense struggling just to get positive yardage and one first down? A lot. And you can say all you want about immediate pass rush, but if a team is only rushing 3 guys in 2-minute offense (which many do vs KFC), the QB should be able to side-step the rush even if there is pressure (there should be holes for any QB with vision). KFC almost never can make a play, even if the pressure is coming from just a 3 man rush.

6. KFC takes far too long to make his reads. We all see that he holds the ball far too long, and this only exacerbates the interior OL weaknesses. And when he holds onto the ball too long, this leads to sacks, blocked passes and fumbles.

7. Even when receivers are open, KFC has a terrible habit of seeing them, pausing, and then refusing to throw to wide open elite WRs (Diggs, Thielen, Jefferson, Rudolph). We have all seen the many times that he abandons a play he could make for a check down to a RB or a 3rd or 4th string WR. It makes zero sense given the arm talent KFC actually has and the receiving talent on the team.

8. He is just a loser. It is very rare that he can pick up the team when things are going badly against a good defense. More often then not, when things are going badly against a good defense a lot of the blame is on KFC.

9. And, yes, his salary matters. Often times I hear/read pundits saying, "You can't blame KFC for his salary. He didn't agree to pay himself that money." That's true, but it totally misses the point. The reason his salary matters so much is that it is a high % of the salary cap. So, if you pay a QB that much money, he needs to be a leader who can lift the team to wins. KFC cannot do that, so I would rather have a lower salary QB and spend the money elsewhere. The results in W-L would be just as good, and we would have more flexibility to make a big move and/or draft and groom a young QB.

And why doesn't this show up in his stats? Because he has a high completion rate, generally minimizes interceptions and because he has great skilled position players to throw to.

When KFC came here I was totally perplexed at why Washington fans hated him and were happy to see him gone. I thought it was all a grudge against him because he refuse to sign a long-term contract with them. But now I know why: KFC is the most frustrating QB to have on your team because his stats look great but he guarantees your team cannot go far in the playoffs and certainly won't win a Super Bowl.

If we can't trade KFC this offseason, then Spielman should get fired despite all the other good work he has done. Why? The contract we gave KFC is perfectly set up by his agent to allow KFC to hijack the team gain before the 2022 season -- they will have to extend him, cut a bunch of other players or take an enormous salary cap hit. Given Spielman's MO, you know for sure they will extend him again, and we will be stuck until 2024 or later with zero chance of winning a Super Bowl.

Rip off the band-aid, pull the plug and bail on KFC before the 2021 season starts. If we don't, we will be stuck with him at least through the 2024 -- mark my words...

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Matthew-

I don't understand why the team is so reluctant to push all its chips into the table to draft a franchise QB when it is generally so willing to go for it at other times (2009/2010, 2018-19) when the team thinks it is close.

There is a generally accepted generational prospect at QB available this year. Why aren't the Vikings trying to move heaven and earth to get that prospect? If Lawrence is that good, literally anything and everything should be on the table. Why not make a call to Jacksonville and find out if a package built around Jefferson and the 14th pick can persuade them to give up #1? If Jacksonville asked for Jefferson, Hunter, and 14 for the right to draft Trevor Lawrence, would you say no?

At a minimum, shouldn't the Vikings be on the phone with Miami to see if Hunter can get them the 3rd pick? Hunter is fabulous, but if a DE can get you a potential franchise QB, don't you have to pull the trigger?

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Hey Marcus... I don't think Jacksonville would move Lawrence for anything but Wilson/Fields/Lance could be realistic. I think that Cousins provides job security. They know exactly what he's going to give them each year and they know how far they have to go. If they trade everything for a QB and it doesn't work, everyone's out. That's probably the biggest holdup.

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Cousin's just needs more protection and an even better running game. Pair that with a strong ball hawking defense, and they become a top 4 team looking to win a Superbowl next year. They have the skill position players to go to a Superbowl, they just need to fill in the rest.

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I'm not sure the running game could get much better, Cook was 2nd in the league this year. But better protection and a defense to give them more possessions, absolutely. That filling out the rest part will be the most interesting to see how they approach it

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Imagine if Kirk had good interior pass blockers and a high quality #3 receiver. Better yet a coach who didn’t insist on running so often on second downs to set up third and longs. For the Cousins bashers, name me the quarterbacks who would thrive with all the third and longs with Dozier, Bradbury, and Samia/Cleveland in front of them? The list is pretty short.

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Yeah I think the most puzzling thing is that the opportunity was there to make his situation better. We all coulda guessed the issues you laid out would limit the ceiling

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Allow this Cousins basher to explain himself. I have never believed Cousins is a terrible QB, but from day 1 I have believed that he is a terrible fit for this team and coaching staff. Under Zimmer, the bulk of the draft capital and cap investment will always go to defense and a good offensive line, which Cousins needs to thrive, will always be at the bottom of the investment list.

In a salary cap era, rosters have to all work together. Cousins has never fit what Zim wants to do on offense and Rick has never constructed the roster in a way that matches Kirk's strengths. Cousins failure and mediocrity in Minnesota has always been on Spielman and Zimmer, in my opinion. That said, he makes way more money than he's worth, which is partially Cousin's problem, but mostly Spielman's.

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I think we can both agree the problem is more on Zimmer and Spielman. Zimmer’s philosophy doesn’t mesh well with today’s pass oriented league and it hinders whoever plays QB for the Vikings. He wouldn’t allow Josh Allen, for example, to throw it 60% of the time. He demands high time of possession to protect his “baby” the defense. And Spielman simply doesn’t prioritize the OG position in any meaningful way.

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My biggest concern is Spielman picking a QB, he’s not done so successfully, Bridgewater is average and Ponder was a straight up bust. So I guess you ride Kirk surrounded by good pieces and hope the stars align. If I had any faith in their QB evaluation they’d pick a guy that covers up some pass blocking challenges and go that route should one fall to them.

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thanks for the comment Jay... it's always tough to say when it comes to a team's past drafting history. They picked Troy Williamson and Treadwell and then Jefferson... it usually comes down to luck. Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are bad, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are good... who woulda guessed it would fall that way, right? I think the issue with drafting a QB is probably where they pick more than anything. If you're taking the 5th best QB prospect by that point, what are the odds the guy is top notch?

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That’s fair and point is taken. Here is my nightmare scenario: Lance or Wilson drops to them and they trade back or pick someone else and New England takes them and wins X Super Bowls. I deep down think Rick&Zim believe they’re close and have no regard for the long game.

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I'm always impressed by Vikings fans' ability to think of the most Vikings-y thing that would ever happen haha

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founding

Excellent, well presented analysis Matthew! That Cousins contract is the crux of the matter... 17% of the pay cap hit and it will get worse. But, there's nothing they can do about the contract. I believe we're going to have Cousins at the helm long term, so why don't they make their system play more to his strengths like Shurmer would? We are loaded with offensive talent, so ADDRESS THE INTERIOR LINE!!!! Get some competent guards like Scherff and stop the DT onslaught.

BTW, loved your podcast analysis with Sam Monson. He's a brilliant football mind. Yes, bring back McDaniel and Hutchinson!!! On a side note, every time I listen to Monson, he voice intonations/accent reminds me of Kiefer Sutherland's portrayal of Dr. Daniel Schreber in Dark City...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgYAjhtr1Rw

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Thanks man, appreciate you listening to the show! I'm with you on the OL (that cap hit % makes it harder though). I'll pass along that comparison to Sam haha

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