The future of the Vikings, part 1: Is there a scenario where Kirk Cousins sticks around?

Things get complicated if the Vikings try to keep Cousins on the roster

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By Sam Ekstrom

MINNEAPOLIS/ZOOM — Asked twice about his future in the final week of the regular season, Kirk Cousins gave few details but offered up a basic wish: He’d like to remain a Minnesota Viking.

That’s the right thing to say when you’re under contract for $45 million, and a head coach with whom you don’t appear to get along is on his way out of town. But is it realistic that Cousins could see a fifth year in purple considering his onerous cap hit?

The Vikings have change coming at general manager and head coach, and according to Mark Wilf, devising a plan at quarterback will be left up to the new decision-makers. More notably, there was no endorsement of the quarterback from ownership.

“[W]e're going to get a head coach and GM in place and work with them and evaluate those kinds of decisions,” Wilf said Monday after dismissing Zimmer and Spielman. “Where our roster fits, what we have, what we don't have, what we need. It's not a simple answer on all of this. I don't want to be a, to use a phrase, a Monday Morning Quarterback on the situation because we have to look forward and we're going to have to bring in the right people to answer that question.”

And a critical question it is.

Cousins’ salary has always been an albatross but never to the extent that it is now. The quarterbacks’ percentage of cap has ranged between 10.6 and 16.6 percent in his previous four years as a Viking. In 2022 he accounts for 21.4 percent of the pie, and according to OverTheCap.com, the Vikings are more than $16.2 million over the limit in effective cap space.

If things were going well with Cousins, this would be an easy juncture to extend Cousins and lower his cap as the Vikings did before 2020. But the biggest decision for the new leaders will be to answer the burning question: Are things going well enough with Cousins to further the team’s commitment?

By the numbers, Cousins technically improved on his 2020 season even though the results were hardly more satisfying. He cut his interceptions down by six and his sacks by 11 with three fourth quarter comebacks and the second-most touchdown throws in his career. (He also had his lowest QBR, yards per attempt and completion percentage in the last three years, so it wasn’t universally better.) As usual, though, the Vikings offense didn’t produce in line with Cousins’ output. He became the first quarterback ever to throw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions and miss the playoffs… twice.

In seven seasons as a starter, he has never won fewer than seven games and never more than 10. Cousins ends 2021 with a 59-59-2 all-time mark. Stunningly average for his perceived productivity.

Retaining Cousins, as empty as some of his box scores are, may seem like it ensures the competitiveness that the Wilfs are looking for, but that’s not quite the truth. Going down a different path may yield a similarly mediocre win total, but it may expedite the Vikings’ path to the future, and as Wilf said during his press conference, “We’re about looking forward.”

So let’s look ahead to the $45 million decision: extending Cousins, trading Cousins or letting him play out his deal.