The Caleb Banks pick is all about upside
And other observations from the first round of the NFL Draft
By Matthew Coller
Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Caleb Banks as DT4.
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network listed Banks as his 51st overall player.
Arif Hasan’s consensus board had Banks as the 37th ranked prospect.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein projected Banks as a second-round pick.
So why on earth did the Minnesota Vikings pick Banks with the 18th overall selection, shocking the mock draft universe that had them unequivocally taking Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman.
Because he might become a monster.
Banks is 6-foot-6, 327 pounds and has an incredible build for the position with massive hands and long arms. Not to mention he ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and broad jumped 114 inches.
These numbers aren’t too far off Eagles star DT Jordan Davis.
When we talk about ceiling and upside, the question is: What is the best-case scenario if everything clicks for this player?
For Banks, those comparisons are players like Akiem Hicks, Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones.
Those are the types that are so overwhelming physically that they manhandle blockers and become nearly impossible to stop one-on-one. They are cornerstones to defenses. Top paid players in the league.
That’s in there somewhere with Banks.
The proof is here, in this chart from Mockdraftable showing the percentiles where Banks ranks vs. other defensive tackles.
Every scouting report under the “strengths” category highlights Banks’ upside.
“Rare frame with well-distributed mass, huge hands and exceptional arm length,” Brugler wrote.
“Outstanding physical traits with good short-area quickness,” Zierlein wrote.
“He has legitimate All-Pro caliber potential as a disruptive, one-gap interior rusher with rare physical traits,” Chris Trapasso of DraftGradebook.com said.
So why wasn’t a player with the upside of being an All-Pro caliber disrupter ranked higher?
For starters, he hasn’t yet reached 1,000 snaps since high school. Because of an injury suffered last season, Banks was only on the field for 96 plays.
When he did play, the production was underwhelming. In 2024, he posted a 73.0 PFF grade and had 29 total QB pressures. In ‘24, he was 44th in pass rush grade and 30th in win rate. Banks was not elite as a run defender either with a 67.9 grade in his junior season and a 25% missed tackle rate for his career.,
Simply put: Banks’ performance hasn’t come anywhere close to his physical gifts.
The negatives in his scouting reports all point to consistency and hint at issues with technique.
“Gives blockers a big target to get the upper hand with body position and leverage, sacrifices balance as a tackler and leaves too much production on the field,” Brugler wrote.
One of the reasons for his inconsistency is his injury history. While Adam Schefter noted that Banks had a CT scan that was sent out to teams and is on track for a full recovery from a recent foot injury, it was the second injury he suffered in the last year. While the Vikings have leaned heavily on their medical staff’s advice (rightfully), common sense would tell us that a guy Banks’ size with foot issues is pretty concerning.
At the end of the day, the Vikings made an enormous bet. They believe that they can develop him into a matchup nightmare for opponents (maybe Chicago in particular, since they have solved a lot of the Vikings’ blitzes).
They also believed that it was impossible to acquire blue chip talent in the middle of the first round without taking a risk.
We have certainly seen that play out in the last decade with some Vikings drafts. Justin Jefferson supposedly couldn’t play outside receiver. Christian Darrisaw had injury concerns and allegedly wasn’t physical enough and Jordan Addison didn’t weigh enough to be a top receiver. Oops, oops, oops.
The difference is that those players dominated college football. And they played a lot of college football. This is likely to be much more of a developmental player than those guys were. The Vikings were clear going into the draft that they weren’t just picking a player to save their bacon right away. If they wanted to do that, they could have taken Thieneman.
If the Vikings had seen all the other talented players fly off the board and then decided to take a swing at Banks, there might not have been as much reaction. But they left a lot of questions with the way the board landed. Shortly after their pick, the Philadelphia Eagles made a move up to get receiver Makai Lemon and then a bunch of other trades came tumbling in. Could the Vikings have moved down and still landed Banks?
The next batch of players had a lot of guys without foot injuries who would have made a bunch of sense. Lemon, for one, might have created a pretty darn unstoppable receiver room. The Panthers took gifted offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, which might have made sense depending on Brian O’Neill’s status. Then the edge rushers started showing up. Akheem Mesidor. Malachi Lawrence. Keldric Faulk. All guys that made sense for Minnesota, especially if they trade Jonathan Greenard on Friday.
Thieneman went 25th to Chicago. Corner Chris Johnson landed right after that and Clemson’s Peter Woods ended up in KC with the 29th pick.
All of those guys fit the bill as solid, quality prospects.
Are their upsides the same as Banks? Absolutely, positively not.
And Banks is at a “premium” position. That matters. If Banks clicks, he’ll be worth $20+ million in surplus value.
So we will have to see how it plays out. This one is probably going to take time before we really know whether it was the right move or not.
The surprising part, other than going 20 spots above the consensus, is that they made such a big swing with Rob Brzezinski at the helm. He’s played most of the offseason down the fairway, keeping the band together and keeping the salary cap in place. On draft night, the Vikings were not expected to be the team that went for broke.
Maybe this will be one for the ages because of it. Or maybe it will turn out like the majority of unproductive, highly physically gifted players and end up being frustrating. Time will tell.
Here are some of the most intriguing players on the board for Friday:
CB Jermod McCoy
WR Denzel Boston
S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
CB Colton Hood
CB Avieon Terrell
G Chase Bisontis
G Emmanuel Pregnon
DT Kayden McDonald
DT Christen Miller
LB Jacob Rodriguez
DE Zion Young
DE T.J. Parker
CB D’Angelo Ponds
DE Cashius Howell
WR Germie Bernard
DE R Mason Thomas
S Treydan Stukes
Two separate foot injuries at 22 years old
Played three games last year
Should have taken a DT in the 2nd round
Banks was a reach