By Matthew Coller
We are just days away from the 2025 Minnesota Vikings hitting the field against the Chicago Bears. With camp and preseason in the books and the roster finalized, let’s have a look at the most pressing questions facing this year’s squad…
How will Kevin O’Connell handle JJ McCarthy? Kid gloves or all-in?
Over the last three seasons, the Vikings’ head coach has leaned into the quarterback regardless of who the quarterback was. The Vikings have thrown the fifth most passes in the NFL since 2022 and even Josh Dobbs threw 151 passes over five appearances. Will things go the same way with first-year starter JJ McCarthy?
There is a good case for going all-in on the 2024 first-round pick. The Vikings have one of the most dynamic groups of weapons in the NFL. Justin Jefferson’s prowess on downfield/intermediate passes has the capability to make any QB into the best version of themselves. Last year with Sam Darnold he caught 45 passes on 77 targets that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. Out of 15 potential contested-catch opportunities, he grabbed nine. That seems like a compelling argument for pushing the ball to Jefferson over and over downfield rather than playing it safe.
If Jefferson was the only option, then asking McCarthy to pump him the ball repeatedly might be tough to accomplish but he has multiple underneath weapons as well. Adam Thielen caught 28 of 29 passes last season that traveled between 0-10 yards in the air and nabbed 32 of 39 short attempts in his direction. Not to mention that Aaron Jones caught 51 passes out of the backfield.
Leaning into McCarthy could be reframed as leaning into the most complete group of weapons in the NFL.
At the same time, McCarthy hasn’t thrown a pass in a real game since the college national championship game in 2023. The Vikings rebuilt the offensive line and added Jordan Mason to run the football more effectively, so it would make sense for O’Connell to ground-and-pound with Jones and Mason from the outset and then slowly build up McCarthy as they go. It would also make sense to try to get into positive down-and-distance situations and use play-action as often as possible with an inexperienced QB.
O’Connell’s QB whispering abilities will be tested as he must balance when to push the gas pedal down, when to push McCarthy through tough moments, when to take the pressure off, and when to live to play another day.
How far can JJ McCarthy take the Vikings?
When a young quarterback is taking over a franchise, there is a natural desire to temper expectations. In this instance, however, the Vikings lead the entire NFL in cash spending for the 2025 season and have a roster largely made up of veteran stars and a head coach who is going into his fourth year without a playoff win. That doesn’t sound like a franchise that should have a ton of patience for the bumps along the road.
Recent history would suggest that it’s not that crazy to put all the pressure on an inexperienced QB. Within the first three years of their careers, we have seen NFC quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy go to the Super Bowl with stacked rosters. Other young QBs like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud and Bo Nix have also led teams to the postseason in either their first or second years.
The question isn’t if it’s possible that McCarthy could take a supremely-gifted offense into the postseason but whether there is a ceiling on the team because of his inexperience. Will he be far enough along in his development to win in the toughest division in the NFL and then take a team through the postseason? We’re going to find out.
How will McCarthy be viewed when 2025 is over?
When the Vikings picked McCarthy 10th overall in the 2024 draft, they were looking for a quarterback good enough to take advantage of the rookie QB contract edge with the salary cap. By the end of the season, will the franchise see him as someone who can compete for a championship within his rookie contract window?
Not that quarterback rankings really matter but…what tier will McCarthy fall into when The Athletic’s Mike Sando releases his article in 2026 based on NFL executives and coaches’ rankings?
What will the target distribution look like?
ESPN’s fantasy expert Mike Clay projects the target share to go like this:
Jefferson: 171
Addison: 96
Thielen: 62
Nailor: 13
Hockenson: 117
Oliver: 18
Jones: 67
Mason: 19
That seems like a pretty high number for Jefferson considering he’s only topped 170 one time in his career. There should be more throws in Nailor’s direction with him likely in the lineup for the first three weeks with Addison out.
Overall, those projections show how many different options McCarthy has in his pocket. Will he force the ball to Jefferson? Will he let opponents double/triple Jefferson and utilize his other weapons? Will he get the benefit of a ton of easy completions to Jones/Hockenson? Can Thielen play that big of a role in the offense?
Does the backfield have a 1A and 1B?
Clay expects a 50-50 carry split in his projections, giving Jones 182 rushes and Mason 178 carries. Is that how it’s really going to play out after Mason had an impressive camp or will the Vikings still be Jones’ team and Mason will be there for occasional support, particularly in short yardage and red zone?
Mason’s performance over 236 career carries certainly suggests that he should be more than just a part-time runner. He has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and was top-10 in yards after contact in 2024. O’Connell said this offseason that he feels Jones has been at his best during his career when paired with a bruiser and they would like to see him at full speed for the entire season rather than being worn down like he was last year. Will they stick with that? Can Mason be effective enough in pure passing situations with blocking and receiving to get those key snaps as well?
Can the defense stop the run as well as 2024?
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