Storylines, stats and predictions for every game on the Vikings' schedule
The NFL schedule is out and we've broken down the entire Vikings slate
By Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom
The Minnesota Vikings schedule is officially released, the league’s first-ever 17-game slate.
We will be broadcasting a live breakdown show on WCCO Radio Twitter and WCCO Radio Facebook page if you want to tune in live or watch the replay.
Let’s dig right in with a main storyline, key stat and prediction for each matchup….
Week 1 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Top storyline: Will Joe Burrow be back?
The former top pick says he believes he’ll be playing in Week 1 after recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. If so, he’ll have No. 5 pick Ja’Marr Chase and last year’s second-round standout Tee Higgins at his disposal, and he’ll be protected by former Vikings left tackle Riley Reiff. If he can’t play, the Vikings may get to face Brandon Allen. Either way, Minnesota probably has an advantage at quarterback. Better to face Burrow early in the year before he regains full confidence.
Also, this is Mike Zimmer’s first time visiting Cincinnati in the regular season as the Vikings head coach. The last time Minnesota faced the Bengals on the road was in the final weeks of the 2013 season, when Zimmer was their defensive coordinator.
Key stat: Burrow was one of the most interception-averse quarterbacks last year.
With a 1.2% interception rate, Burrow ranked behind only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. He did fumble the ball nine times in 10 games, though, and he was 10th-highest in sack percentage.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 2 @ Arizona Cardinals
Top storyline: Will Kliff Kingsbury push his offense forward?
When Arizona hired Kingsbury, he was supposed to elevate the floundering franchise. While he’s been better than his predecessor, Kingsbury is yet to grab the “next Sean McVay” label. If his offense continues to lack the creativity that was expected when Kingsbury was hired, Zimmer will take advantage schematically.
Key stat: Cardinals only ranked 19th in passing EPA.
The Cardinals may not have had an extremely efficient passing game but one thing they did well was throw the ball deep. You can bet they will be testing Patrick Peterson’s speed in his “revenge” game.
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Top storyline: The Vikings finally play Seattle at US Bank Stadium.
The last time the Vikings played against the Seahawks at home, well, maybe you don’t want to talk about it. Let’s just say it’s been a long time. Seattle has not been kind to the Vikings, who have gone 0-3 at CenturyLink Field in the last three years and each time was crushing in its own way. In 2018 offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was fired after the game. In 2019 the Vikings failed on a final drive. In 2020 they were stopped on fourth-and-1 and then allowed Russell Wilson to lead a game-winning drive. Maybe things will go better at home this time than their two games against Seattle in Minnesota in 2015.
Key stat: Seattle ranks sixth in road scoring since 2018 and No. 2 in road passer rating.
Oddly enough in the three losses over the last three years, Wilson hasn’t played all that well against Mike Zimmer’s defenses. He has only a 84.9 rating with five touchdowns and three interceptions in those contests. Has Zimmer figured out something about the superstar quarterback that will continue or will Wilson scramble all over US Bank Stadium?
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Top storyline: Kevin Stefanski returns with an offensive juggernaut
Under Stefanski, the 2019 Vikings ranked the highest in scoring since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014 (eighth). Now with Stefanski returning, it will be a battle of two coaches who know each other extremely well. The former Vikings OC also has an impressive Browns offense to bring with him to US Bank Stadium. This game will be one of the biggest challenges for the Vikings’ new-look defense.
Key stat: Baker Mayfield’s 2020 passer rating was the highest single-season rating of any Browns QB since the team’s return to the NFL.
Cleveland’s ascending QB graded as the 13th best at his position last year by PFF and then put together two very good playoff performances on the road. In fact, last year he was a better QB on the road, posting 17 touchdowns to just four picks and a 102.5 rating when playing away from the Dawg Pound. When US Bank Stadium is full, it’s a different level of difficult but Mayfield has shown he can handle difficult environments.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 5 vs. Detroit Lions
Top storyline: Can Dan Campbell make Detroit respectable?
Who would dare doubt a man that suggested his team bite the kneecaps of their opponents? OK, everyone would. But Campbell’s enthusiastic style has to be welcome after three miserable years under Matt Patricia, right? Still, the Lions’ roster isn’t very strong at the moment so the Vikings should be able to take care of business at home.
Key stat: Under Matt Patricia, allowed the worst passer rating against in the NFL (104.8).
Under the “how much worse could it be” is the Lions’ coverage. Patricia was supposed to be a defensive guru yet Kirk Cousins and Co. did nothing but shred his defenses up and down over the last three years — along with the rest of the league. With Aaron Glenn in charge of the defense, Cousins can expect coverages to be mixed up a little more often in 2021.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 6 @ Carolina Panthers
Top storyline: Can the defense get it together?
The Panthers spent all seven of their draft picks in 2020 on the defensive side of the ball, but it didn’t really show up on the field last year. Now they’ve added a first-round corner in Jaycee Horn. Will they start reaping the rewards of their defensive talent? After a curious trade for Sam Darnold, they’ll need all the help they can get.
Key stat: The Panthers were brutal in close games last year.
Carolina lost seven consecutive one-possession games between Week 5 and Week 15, including a last-second loss against the Vikings. Former quarterback Teddy Bridgewater took a shot at the coaching staff on a podcast Wednesday, saying they rarely practiced two-minute drills, which makes the stat all the more telling.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 7 BYE
Minnesota gets the same bye as last year, right before the trade deadline.
Week 8 vs. Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
Top storyline: How is Dak doing?
At this point, it should be clear how Dak Prescott has responded to his devastating injury in 2020. Dallas clearly believes he’ll be fine, based on his $160 million extension. Minnesota got torched by Prescott the last they met in 2019 but were able to win thanks to a fourth quarter defensive stand.
Dallas has disappointed the last four seasons with just one year reaching 10 wins. Now that he’s highly paid, the ante will be upped for Prescott, who is surrounded with weapons and has a defense with numerous high picks including LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs.
Key stat: CeeDee Lamb only had two games with over five catches after losing Prescott.
The former first-round pick made some magnificent catches last year but also dropped the ball nine times. He was fairly quiet late in the year with only one touchdown in the last six games.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 9 @ Baltimore Ravens
Top storyline: Can the Vikings contain Lamar Jackson?
Zimmer’s defenses have chased around Russell Wilson and Cam Newton in recent years but they haven’t faced anything quite like Lamar Jackson. He is by far the most dominant running quarterback in the NFL since being drafted by the Ravens in 2018. Whether he can be held in check just enough will make the difference.
Key stat: Jackson has 2,211 rushing yards, more than 800 yards over the next best QB.
The interesting thing to watch with the Ravens this year is whether they make adjustments to the passing game. By drafting Rashod Bateman, Baltimore has already helped Jackson’s cause in situations where he can’t run. But in the playoffs it appeared OC Greg Roman’s passing design was flawed, allowing Tennessee and Buffalo to slow him down through the air. The Vikings will no doubt be studying those games.
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 10 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Top storyline: Will the Chargers have one of the league’s most dangerous passing games?
Things will be extremely different from the last time the Vikings faced the Chargers. They last laid a drubbing on the Chargers in a soccer stadium full of purple and caused a bunch of Philip Rivers turnovers. This time they will be in L.A.’s fancy new building with a quarterback talented enough to even get L.A. football fans to keep their tickets.
Key stat: Justin Herbert had the second most passing touchdowns on throws over 20 yards in the air.
The Vikings revamped their secondary for purposes such as this. Herbert is going to push the ball downfield with his monster arm. Whether the Vikings can make him uncomfortable in the pocket while doing so will also be a factor.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 11 vs. Green Bay Packers
Top storyline: Who’s the QB?
We sound like a broken record asking all these quarterback questions, but this is one of the league’s biggest storylines. Aaron Rodgers’ situation with the Packers seems untenable, and it’s looking more and more like he won’t return. Hello, Jordan Love.
The difference between Rodgers and Love in a game like this could represent a 7-10 point swing on the spread. Mike Zimmer certainly will have a preference for which passer he faces.
Key stat: Green Bay is 5-10-1 in the two seasons where Rodgers has missed significant time.
Rodgers missed seven games in 2013, and his replacements Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien and Seneca Wallace went 2-4-1. In 2017, Brett Hundley went 3-6. It would be fascinating to see what Love would do over a full season with a roster that went 13-3 the last two years with Rodgers.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 12 @ San Francisco 49ers
Top storyline: Have the 49ers made the QB swap yet?
Trey Lance is waiting in the wings to take over for Jimmy Garoppolo once things go amiss. Based on Garoppolo’s injury history, it’s more likely Lance sees his opportunity via injury than poor play. It’s feasible that San Francisco is pretty good with many defensive pieces healthy again, so Garoppolo may get an extended swan song.
Key stat: The 49ers lost over 300 man games due to injury last year, the most in football.
Here’s an abridged list of key 49ers who missed time last year: Garoppolo (10 games), Raheem Mostert (8), Tevin Coleman (8), Deebo Samuel (9), George Kittle (8), Kwon Alexander (11), Richard Sherman (11), Nick Bosa (14).
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 13 @ Detroit Lions
Top storyline: Can Jared Goff make the Detroit offense respectable?
It’s going to feel very, very strange to see the Vikings face the Lions with someone else playing quarterback other than Matthew Stafford. The last time the Vikings played the Lions without Stafford on the roster, Gus Frerotte was Minnesota’s starting quarterback. No matter how many times they saw him, Stafford was always capable of giving the Vikings a hard time. Will they see the same from Goff, even with his supporting cast being weaker than Stafford’s was in recent years?
Key stat: Jared Goff has the fourth most passing yards since 2017 and ninth best yards per attempt
Goff last saw the Vikings in 2018 and shredded them for 465 yards. He may be talked about as a “system” quarterback who is incapable of raising the level of play around him but Goff has shown that his high end is leading a top offense in the league. He is also very good at avoiding sacks, taking just 23 last year. That will be different from when the Vikings went against Stafford.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (TNF)
Top storyline: Are the Steelers still clinging to respectability?
No team shoots for continuity more than the Steelers, who crashed to earth late in the 2020 season and were ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Nonetheless, they kept Ben Roethlisberger around for another run at it. They’ve never had a sub-.500 record in the Roethlisberger era, but could 2021 be the downfall?
Key stat: Chase Claypool posted a 2.00 yards per route run last year.
He was the only other rookie receiver to hit that mark besides Justin Jefferson (2.66). Claypool created a three-headed receiver monster with Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson that combined for 25 touchdowns.
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 15 @ Chicago Bears (MNF)
Top storyline: Two in a row at Soldier Field?
The Vikings barely escaped with a win over Nick Foles in Chicago last year. Maybe Justin Jefferson is the key to overcoming the Chicago Curse. He caught eight passes for 135 yards against the Bears in the 19-13 win. The Bears haven’t upgraded their secondary so it’s possible we’ll see that again.
Key stat: Vikings are 5-15 at Soldier Field since 2000.
No, it really doesn’t make any sense. It hasn’t mattered which team was stronger in years past. Even when Chicago is at their lowest, they still give the Vikings a battle. In 2017 the Soldier Field win came down to the final moments and turned out to be a turning point in the season.
Sam’s prediction: Loss
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Top storyline: It’s Matthew Stafford, but on a new team.
The Rams gave up a lot to get the former Lions quarterback, who the Vikings have feasted on in the past. But now he’ll be supported by a better coaching staff, a stacked receiving corps and a high-end defense. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that this game has seeding implications, which is more than Stafford is used to playing for in December.
Key stat: Jared Goff ranked 32nd of 39 in deep passing completion percentage last year.
Part of the reason the Rams ostensibly fell out of love with Goff was his inability to work the ball downfield. He completed just 13 of 43 throws over 20 yards last year with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His 71.5 passer rating on those throws also ranked 32nd. Stafford, on the other hand, was fourth in deep passer rating with seven touchdowns and no picks.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
Week 17 @ Green Bay Packers (SNF)
Top storyline: The division could be on the line.
Regardless of Green Bay’s record, the result of this game could decide the Vikings’ fate, especially with how important division-record tiebreakers are. As we’ve established, the Packers could be looking at a Jordan Love-led team, which doesn’t bode well for them. But playing a January game at Lambeau Field in primetime isn’t usually a situation where Kirk Cousins has been comfortable.
Key stat: Kirk Cousins is 5-3-1 in divisional road games with the Vikings.
That’s not a terrible stat considering how lousy some of his performances have been. The no-shows at Lambeau and Soldier Field in 2019 stand out, but he’s also picked up key wins in both venues and dominated the Lions all three years.
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Loss
Week 18 vs. Chicago Bears
Top storyline: Will Justin Fields be a star by the end of his rookie year?
Chicago didn’t trade next year’s first-round pick to play Andy Dalton, right? When the Bears picked Mitch Trubisky in 2017, they went to him quickly after their Mike Glennon experiment failed and it feels like they will not make the same mistake with Fields/Dalton. While the Vikings have lost to far inferior Bears quarterbacks than Dalton i.e. Trubisky and Chase Daniel, Mike Zimmer has also eaten alive rookie quarterbacks in the past by disguising pressures and coverages. If Fields has enough experience by Week 18 to no longer feel like a rookie, it will be a fascinating battle between him and the looks Zimmer is going to throw his way.
Key stat: Chicago ranks 25th in team passer rating since 2014.
The Bears occasionally were a dangerous passing team with Jay Cutler under center but aside from that they have been downright abysmal through the air for the entirety of the Zimmer era. Will Justin Fields change that? Will we see signs of that right away?
Sam’s prediction: Win
Matthew’s prediction: Win
——
Sam’s final record: 11-6
Matthew’s final record: 10-7
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It's about to be a looooonnngg season... if they stumble on the road against Cincy or Cards, the fanbase and media will have them shredded before home field kickoff.
Would 10-7 be good enough to make the playoffs?