I agree with the article, but another factor is that Kirk is not and never has been worthy of the expensive contract he was given. Keenum's Vikings numbers were equal to and even better than Kirk's in many ways, so Kirk wasn't an upgrade to taking the next step. Kirk is not on par with his peers that make the same salary as him, so the Vikings didn't just need to keep at least as good of a team as the 2017 team around him to make it to the Super Bowl, they needed a better team to take the next step. But Kirk's contract made that impossible. Finally, Kirk was certainly a downgrade when it came to mobility and improvisation, so Kirk coupled with the Vikings unimproved poor line play (the real reason why the Eagles dominated them) made the team worse, not better. There's also an argument to be made that Kirk had a hand in making the oline worse, by bringing his buddy Compton along to replace Berger.
Keenum is a journeyman back-up who got lucky for a while before throwing a brutal pick-six that was the turning point in the NFC game.
Cousins is not a top 10 qb, but he's in the next tier. Those guys get paid once they complete their rookie Ks. As Matthew notes, the problem isn't paying a QB, the problem is that when a team does the margin for error with the rest of the roster construction becomes a lot smaller.
The "brutal pick-six" you cite to was on a throw where Keenum's body and arm were hit in the act of throwing by former second overall pick--Chris Long. Kirk threw plenty of brutal pick-sixes as a Viking. In fact, he was second in the league in 2018 as a Viking. He also fumbled 9 times in 2018!
My point was that it's even worse when you pay an average QB like Kirk a lot of money, which Rick did. Kirk had the 6th highest QB cap number in 2018, higher than Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rivers, Roethlesberger, and Manning. Nobody will ever convince me that the Vikings wouldn't have been a much better team in 2018 with Keenum starting, Dalvin back and a few upgrades added with the money saved from not signing Kirk.
Kirk is much better than an average quarterback. There're a few great QBs like Brady, Rogers, Mahomes, then there are about 10 good but not elite QBs like Kirk, and then there's the rest. If the Vikings had an average OL they would have made the playoffs the last 2 years. In my opinion, the failures are more on Spielman and Zimmer, not Kirk. Drafting an under-sized center #1? All those CB misses? 2 nose tackles? Matt always says Kirk is good only when everything around him is perfect. But there's another way of looking at the same facts -- if you have a QB who is Brady-elite when he has a decent pocket, then why are you putting together an OL that's at least average? As for Zimmer, I will never understand the stubbornness on running the ball when you have Cousins, Thielen and JJ, plus Cook out of the backfield, plus a good TE and (this year) a good 3rd WR. It was like watching 70s football (and I did watch 70s football cause I'm old). But when the Vikings got Tarkenton, Bud Grant changed and passed the ball. That's what a good coach does.
Kirk needs a near-perfect offensive line because he is not Brady elite. Brady does not need a near-perfect offensive line he knows how to move around the pocket and still get a good throw off when that isn't working he can get rid of the ball quickly by throwing his receivers open. Almost every time the Vikings have played Brady, they haven't been able to lay a hand on him because he get's rid of the ball so quick. Kirk cannot do either of those things and that's why he's average. He is elite when everything runs perfectly or a team is in prevent defense, but the rest of the time he just isn't. I will admit that play-calling didn't help Kirk and the Vikings this year, though. My whole point is that Kirk will never succeed and could never have succeeded in Minnesota because he: 1) costs so much money;' and 2) needs so much around him to be successful. The odds of being able to pay Kirk his princely sum and having a near-perfect team around him are darn near impossible in the salary cap era and Rick's failure to see that is a fireable offense.
I agree that Spielman and Zimmer's draft failures were also a huge issue. Spielman should have been fired for his inability to say "no Mike, I'm not drafting another damn corner in the first round when my qbs keep getting killed by any team with a good defensive line" alone.
Another fireable offense for both Zimmer and Spielman is the issue you point to which is that they were not on the same page when it comes to how to build a team. Zimmer always wanted a conservative, run-first offense and a hard nosed defense like Parcell's Giants teams. Zimmer was never on board with a throw first team and high dollar qb. Zimmer didn't adapt and Spielman didn't build the team Zimmer wanted, they both deserved to be fired.
A question for all other viewers and Matthew... Let`s say Cleveland (pick 13) offers their first for Kirk (and you know you can get either Teddy or Jameis for 8mm a year as a stop gap). Do you go for it knowing in the short term we lose qb firepower but gain a lot of draft capital and financial freedom?
I would do that. Here's another scenario -- would you trade kirk straight up for Baker? He would be a good bridge quarterback and possible more than that, and we would still have our 1st round pick and alot of cap space. Also, it would be fun to see Baker's new commercials in his new house.
Not only was AJ Brown available when we took Irv but also was DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and Dionte Johnson. Maxx Crosby was taken 4 picks after Alexander Mattison. A brutal draft!
Great post-mortem. So many moves went against positional value. Center, safety, LB, and RB, a GM has to know better. Conceptually, 1st round CBs are a good idea but multiple busts there piled on. I've always wondered how much influence Zimmer had in some of these moves.
I don't have an issue with the CBs; everyone has draft busts and those picks made sense.
Taking any C in round 1 is dubious--they can and should be had later--but taking an undersized/under-strengthed C in round 1 is indefensible, and the allocation of resources to RB was always nuts. The Shanahan/Kubiak offence is *known* for being able to take any ambulatory college RB and get 1,000 yards rushing from him. When the Broncos briefly forgot this and inexplicably drafted Portis, they had the good sense to trade him for the Champ instead agreeing to an extension.
Anthony Barr is emblematic of this era. Over 8 seasons he had 5 INTs, 8 forced fumbles and 17.5 sacks at a price tag of $60 MM in actual cash and a top ten draft pick. That is a terrible return on investment, despite the fact that Barr played 4-3 OLB as well if not better than could have been expected. Draft busts are unavoidable; over-drafting and over-paying for non-impact roles is avoidable, but Spielman consistently failed to do so.
I got to admit, the second I saw this "There was another oddball move mixed in: A fourth-round pick for Jets fourth-string tight end Chris Herndon." it was a clear panic move.... A bunch of pretty similar TEs were available on the free agent market
I agree with the article, but another factor is that Kirk is not and never has been worthy of the expensive contract he was given. Keenum's Vikings numbers were equal to and even better than Kirk's in many ways, so Kirk wasn't an upgrade to taking the next step. Kirk is not on par with his peers that make the same salary as him, so the Vikings didn't just need to keep at least as good of a team as the 2017 team around him to make it to the Super Bowl, they needed a better team to take the next step. But Kirk's contract made that impossible. Finally, Kirk was certainly a downgrade when it came to mobility and improvisation, so Kirk coupled with the Vikings unimproved poor line play (the real reason why the Eagles dominated them) made the team worse, not better. There's also an argument to be made that Kirk had a hand in making the oline worse, by bringing his buddy Compton along to replace Berger.
Keenum is a journeyman back-up who got lucky for a while before throwing a brutal pick-six that was the turning point in the NFC game.
Cousins is not a top 10 qb, but he's in the next tier. Those guys get paid once they complete their rookie Ks. As Matthew notes, the problem isn't paying a QB, the problem is that when a team does the margin for error with the rest of the roster construction becomes a lot smaller.
The "brutal pick-six" you cite to was on a throw where Keenum's body and arm were hit in the act of throwing by former second overall pick--Chris Long. Kirk threw plenty of brutal pick-sixes as a Viking. In fact, he was second in the league in 2018 as a Viking. He also fumbled 9 times in 2018!
My point was that it's even worse when you pay an average QB like Kirk a lot of money, which Rick did. Kirk had the 6th highest QB cap number in 2018, higher than Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rivers, Roethlesberger, and Manning. Nobody will ever convince me that the Vikings wouldn't have been a much better team in 2018 with Keenum starting, Dalvin back and a few upgrades added with the money saved from not signing Kirk.
Kirk is much better than an average quarterback. There're a few great QBs like Brady, Rogers, Mahomes, then there are about 10 good but not elite QBs like Kirk, and then there's the rest. If the Vikings had an average OL they would have made the playoffs the last 2 years. In my opinion, the failures are more on Spielman and Zimmer, not Kirk. Drafting an under-sized center #1? All those CB misses? 2 nose tackles? Matt always says Kirk is good only when everything around him is perfect. But there's another way of looking at the same facts -- if you have a QB who is Brady-elite when he has a decent pocket, then why are you putting together an OL that's at least average? As for Zimmer, I will never understand the stubbornness on running the ball when you have Cousins, Thielen and JJ, plus Cook out of the backfield, plus a good TE and (this year) a good 3rd WR. It was like watching 70s football (and I did watch 70s football cause I'm old). But when the Vikings got Tarkenton, Bud Grant changed and passed the ball. That's what a good coach does.
Kirk needs a near-perfect offensive line because he is not Brady elite. Brady does not need a near-perfect offensive line he knows how to move around the pocket and still get a good throw off when that isn't working he can get rid of the ball quickly by throwing his receivers open. Almost every time the Vikings have played Brady, they haven't been able to lay a hand on him because he get's rid of the ball so quick. Kirk cannot do either of those things and that's why he's average. He is elite when everything runs perfectly or a team is in prevent defense, but the rest of the time he just isn't. I will admit that play-calling didn't help Kirk and the Vikings this year, though. My whole point is that Kirk will never succeed and could never have succeeded in Minnesota because he: 1) costs so much money;' and 2) needs so much around him to be successful. The odds of being able to pay Kirk his princely sum and having a near-perfect team around him are darn near impossible in the salary cap era and Rick's failure to see that is a fireable offense.
I agree that Spielman and Zimmer's draft failures were also a huge issue. Spielman should have been fired for his inability to say "no Mike, I'm not drafting another damn corner in the first round when my qbs keep getting killed by any team with a good defensive line" alone.
Another fireable offense for both Zimmer and Spielman is the issue you point to which is that they were not on the same page when it comes to how to build a team. Zimmer always wanted a conservative, run-first offense and a hard nosed defense like Parcell's Giants teams. Zimmer was never on board with a throw first team and high dollar qb. Zimmer didn't adapt and Spielman didn't build the team Zimmer wanted, they both deserved to be fired.
A question for all other viewers and Matthew... Let`s say Cleveland (pick 13) offers their first for Kirk (and you know you can get either Teddy or Jameis for 8mm a year as a stop gap). Do you go for it knowing in the short term we lose qb firepower but gain a lot of draft capital and financial freedom?
yup
I would do that. Here's another scenario -- would you trade kirk straight up for Baker? He would be a good bridge quarterback and possible more than that, and we would still have our 1st round pick and alot of cap space. Also, it would be fun to see Baker's new commercials in his new house.
Not only was AJ Brown available when we took Irv but also was DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and Dionte Johnson. Maxx Crosby was taken 4 picks after Alexander Mattison. A brutal draft!
Great job Mathew
Great post-mortem. So many moves went against positional value. Center, safety, LB, and RB, a GM has to know better. Conceptually, 1st round CBs are a good idea but multiple busts there piled on. I've always wondered how much influence Zimmer had in some of these moves.
I don't have an issue with the CBs; everyone has draft busts and those picks made sense.
Taking any C in round 1 is dubious--they can and should be had later--but taking an undersized/under-strengthed C in round 1 is indefensible, and the allocation of resources to RB was always nuts. The Shanahan/Kubiak offence is *known* for being able to take any ambulatory college RB and get 1,000 yards rushing from him. When the Broncos briefly forgot this and inexplicably drafted Portis, they had the good sense to trade him for the Champ instead agreeing to an extension.
Anthony Barr is emblematic of this era. Over 8 seasons he had 5 INTs, 8 forced fumbles and 17.5 sacks at a price tag of $60 MM in actual cash and a top ten draft pick. That is a terrible return on investment, despite the fact that Barr played 4-3 OLB as well if not better than could have been expected. Draft busts are unavoidable; over-drafting and over-paying for non-impact roles is avoidable, but Spielman consistently failed to do so.
I got to admit, the second I saw this "There was another oddball move mixed in: A fourth-round pick for Jets fourth-string tight end Chris Herndon." it was a clear panic move.... A bunch of pretty similar TEs were available on the free agent market
We paid a 4th in part so they would take part of his cap hit (pretty sure $1.4 million).