SKOL Searching: Welcome to draft season
SKOL Searching: Welcome to draft season
Paul Hodowanic launches his debut draft-focused weekly column by talking about hand size
Hey folks, we’re launching a new weekly column by contributor Paul Hodowanic (once known as Intern Paul) in which he looks at five headlines from the NFL Draft, keeping you up to date on the latest as it pertains to the Vikings…and with a little added wit. Here’s Paul’s debut column…
By Paul Hodowanic
Ahhhhhh draft season. It feels nice, right? This is easily my favorite time on the calendar for any sport. It has to be when you grow up a Minnesota sports fan.
You go through the pain of watching Alexy Shved and Luke Ridnour so you have a chance of drafting prospects like Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony Towns, or more recently, Anthony Edwards, right? You sit through Vance Worley starting on opening day for the Minnesota Twins in 2013 with the hopes one day a prospect like Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis comes along (still waiting for that pitching).
The Vikings have often been the reprieve, producing winning seasons and playoff games at a high rate, especially compared to its local competition. But something about the NFL draft has always been at the top of my list, even with the Vikings often picking in the back half of the first round.
Maybe it’s hearing terms like “quicker than fast” or “looks like Tarzan plays like Jane,” that gets the juices flowing. Nonetheless, it’s a time like no other.
So, over the next couple of months, I’ll bring you “SKOL Searching,” a weekly column with a dose of analysis, news and sarcasm. I can’t promise to be an expert. I never played in the NFL (no one tell Jeff Garcia). But I will bring the passion and hopefully get you ready for the three-day weekend in April that shapes the entirety of the NFL, known as the NFL Draft.
So let’s jump in.
Time to get mad about QB hand size again!
The Senior Bowl means the beginning of the annual quarterback hand size debate as top prospects get accurately measured for the first time in the draft cycle (never trust the college websites).
It’s hard to get a year without a hand-size controversy. Two years ago it was Burrow, whose hand measured at 9’’, tying an all-time low for an eventual No. 1 pick (league average is around 9 ½’’). It led him to send off this fantastic tweet, which recirculated this week.
Before Burrow, it was Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr, all of whom got criticized because of hand size.
And we certainly have some drama this year as Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett declined to have his hands measured on Monday citing a double-jointed thumb that causes the finger to bend inward, which he claims would give an inaccurate representation of his hand size, he told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Pickett, a potential first-round pick, will have his hand size officially measured at the NFL Combine in March.
But you can’t get away that easily, Kenny. According to Dane Brugler of The Athletic, scouts have previously measured Pickett’s hands at 8 ¼’, which would be the smallest since 1999 when Mockdraftable.com began tracking the statistic. (Not to brag, but I measured my hands at 8 ½’. Take that Pickett.)
But does this really matter? The data says no.
In 2020, ESPN Stats and Info went through the past 10 drafts and found that the “group of QBs with the smallest hands fumbled at nearly the same rate as QBs with large hands, and, what's more, small-handed QBs had a slightly higher QBR than passers with medium-sized hands.”
A similar USA Today study found “no correlation between hand size and fumble rate or cold-weather performance.”
"I think that's like the No. 1 thing for quarterbacks in the draft process every year is hand size," Pickett said Tuesday. "The good news is that I play in Pittsburgh. Anyone that's been to Pittsburgh knows it's not the nicest place to play in October, November.”
Still, Pickett may be a new test case if his hands measure around 8”. There are currently no NFL starting QBs with less than 9” hands.
If the Vikings are in the QB market, it’s hard to know if hand size will be a deterrent for first-time GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. In his time with the San Francisco 49ers, the organization drafted just one quarterback before the fifth round, C.J. Beathard. His hand size was 9 ⅜”.
Once upon a time, the Vikings’ previous regime drafted Teddy Bridgewater, whose hands were measured at 9 ¼”. Could the Vikings fall in love with a fellow two-gloved shot caller with small hands? Only time will tell.
A deeper understanding of quarterback mobility
Let’s move on to a QB stat that I think is much more valuable than QB hand size.
Over the weekend, Pro Football Focus’ Kevin Cole put together some cool data looking at QB mobility and the ability to avoid sacks. Cole measured college sack and scramble EPA from QB prospects dating back to 2015, and found some intriguing results.
Of the top-11 QBs in combined sack and scramble EPA since 2015, only one was a definitive bust – Mitch Trubisky. Among the others on the list were Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawerence, Justin Herbert and Mac Jones.
Conversely, Cole charted the QBs with the worst sack/scramble EPA. Seven of the 12 were deemed unsuccessful. Names like Josh Rosen, Jacoby Brissett, Dwayne Haskins and Deshaun Kizer. Of the bottom 12, only two are current NFL starters – Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow.
The data reinforces a pretty clear thesis that more and more NFL teams are adopting: mobility is an essential trait for the modern NFL quarterback.
Now, that can take different forms, from the pure athleticism of Murray and Watson to enhanced awareness and pocket movement like Mahomes.
I find Mac Jones’ spot on the list interesting. He had the sixth-best combined sack/scramble EPA. Much was said in the pre-draft process about Jones’ lack of athleticism. Could he create plays of schedule and survive when the situation around him is collapsing? This data shows us that what he lacked in pure athleticism he made up for in pocket movement and quick decision making. And while he tapered off toward the end of the season, he certainly looks like a quality starting QB and someone the Vikings could have very easily drafted last year.
So that raises the question: How does the current crop of draft prospects fit into this list? And are there any QBs not traditionally thought of as athletic that show underlying signs of mobility? Thankfully, Cole laid it out.
Among the 2022 QB prospects, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral had the best sack/scramble EPA and ranks sixth among all QBs since 2015. Corral, with a -0.03 EPA, is ahead of the likes of Lawrence, Jones and Herbert. Just behind Corral is Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe. Zappe is PFF’s 92nd ranked prospect, giving the Vikings a potential mid-round option (sorry Kellen Mond stans) if they opt to go a different direction with the No. 14 pick.
On the other end of the spectrum, Nevada’s Carson Strong, PFF’s 45th ranked prospect, ranks dead last in this year’s class and among all QBs since 2015 with an EPA -0.115. North Carolina’s Sam Howell ranks sixth-worst among all QBs.
Does that mean Strong and Howell can’t have success? No, but history doesn’t look kindly on them. So far, Burrow has been the only impact player to struggle in these metrics and even he has continued to struggle avoiding sacks.
Looking at the interior offensive line class
The Vikings appear to have their tackles of the future in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, but the interior offensive line is still a major question mark.
Ezra Cleveland made strides last season, giving up just one sack in 1,140 snaps compared to five sacks in 622 snaps during his rookie season. He appears the likely starter at left guard next year.
The other two spots have major question marks. It’s hard to feel comfortable with either Garrett Bradbury or Oli Udoh as starters heading into next season, although both may be on the roster heading into 2022. Mason Cole is a free agent. Wyatt Davis could be an option, but we have no information to suggest he’ll be a success.
Thus, we will spend yet another year looking at interior offensive lineman prospects and questioning how well they move in a phone booth.
Brandon Thorn, the founder of another successful Substack “Trench Warfare” and Bleacher Report OL analyst, recently published his OL tiers. Note: This only includes Senior Bowl participants. To get a full breakdown of each prospect, subscribe to Thorn’s newsletter, but here’s a peek at the top interior OL to keep in mind as the draft cycle gets underway.
Tier 1 - Immediate starters and potential impact players (Round 1-Round 2 grades)
Zion Johnson - G - Boston College
Marquis Hayes - G - Oklahoma
Lecitus Smith - G - Virginia Tech
Tier 2 - High-level backup/potential starter (Round 3 grade)
Jamaree Salyer - G - Georgia
Dylan Parham - IOL - Memphis
Darian Kinnard - G/T - Kentucky
Cade Mays - G - Tennessee
Ed Ingram - G - LSU
Luke Fortner - C - Kentucky
Justin Shaffer - G - Georgia
Cole Strange - IOL - UT Chattanooga
Beyond the natural need, there’s reason to assume Adofo-Mensah could prioritize the offensive line. During his time in Cleveland, the Browns handed out big extensions to both of their guards. It’s safe to assume Adofo-Mensah was part of those conversations. Right guard Wyatt Teller signed a four-year, $56.8 million contract and left guard Joel Bitonio inked a three-year, $48 million contract. And right before Adofo-Mensah arrived in Cleveland, his close friend and mentor Andrew Berry drafted offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. in the first round.
Like the quarterback position, it’s hard to know Adofo-Mensah’s tendencies. But if he’s a product of his previous environment, investing capital in the offensive line is likely.
The internet discovered Daniel Faalele’s measurements
As a University of Minnesota grad who covered the beginning of Faalele’s career, I’ll take any chance to laugh about how massive of a human being he is.
Here’s a little tour of my favorite “Holy s— Daniel Faalele is massive” photos.
Easily my favorite. Megan Ryan (pictured here), now the Star Tribune’s Twins beat reporter, is at least three or four inches taller than me. So I’m very thankful nobody has captured a picture of me next to Faalele.
I mean…
I know Mo Ibrahim is standing behind him, but still. Looks like Faalele could just fit him in his back pocket.
And he can throw!?!?!?!?
On a serious note: early reports out of Mobile indicate Faalele has been impressive at the Senior Bowl. A strong week there will only heighten the hype before the combine. In Thorn’s previously mentioned tiers, Faalele is in Tier 1. Generally thought of as a second-round pick, he could be primed for a massive (c’mon, had to) move up draft boards and into the first round.
Let’s draft sim
We will conclude each SKOL Searching column with a draft sim. To not would be sacrilege towards the entire ethos of his column and Purple Insider as an entity.
For this week’s mock, I was inspired by some of our talking points on QB and OL, so this is what I was able to pull off.
Both Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral were off the board at this point as the Giants and Broncos grabbed them. Left for me was Sam Howell. But after seeing his mobility questioned by Cole’s data, I went in a different direction.
By all indications, Desmond Ridder is probably not ready to start in year 1. That’s perfectly fine for me as the Vikings could ride out the last of Cousins’ contract or find a bridge quarterback to hold down the fort. I thought about Malik Willis, but Ridder was next on PFF’s draft board, so that’s where I went.
Faalele was on the board in round two, forcing me to resist every fiber in my being. But I stuck to the objective of taking an IOL.
The Vikings will undergo some major changes in the defensive backfield. Jalen Pitre likely profiles as a slot cornerback or safety, according to PFF’s draft guide. With where the Vikings are now, I’m more interested in accumulating talent and figuring out where they’ll play later.
I can’t even lie. I don’t know who Charleston Rambo is. But he had a cool name so why not.
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Great job Paul. How about Malik Willis at 12
Very cool. Love the info for the draft. Keep it coming!!! BTW, you took a Safety at #2. Not IOL.