SKOL Searching: Interior O-line and which teams could draft quarterbacks

Paul Hodowanic analyzes the teams ahead of the Vikings that are QB-needy

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By Paul Hodowanic

With the season now behind us, get ready for NFL Draft hype to ramp up. The combine is less than two weeks away and pro days will follow. We’ve got a beefy SKOL Searching column for you today, so I won’t bore you with a long introduction or a joke about Coller’s hairline. His Twitter replies have that covered!

Editor’s note: Matthew’s hairline is fine, if not wonderful

QB Check-In

Sitting at pick No. 12, the Vikings are in an interesting position when it comes to potentially drafting a quarterback. In an average QB draft class, the Vikings would likely be too far back to snag one of the top two or three quarterbacks with the 12th pick, but a lack of consensus top-tier talent makes the situation much more difficult to project. There could be three quarterbacks taken before they pick, or zero.

So, let’s look at the teams in front of Minnesota and where they stand with their quarterbacks. Still 2-plus months away from the draft, a lot can change. But reports have already started to circulate on what some teams might do. 

Not looking for a QB: Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 1 pick), New York Jets (No. 4, No. 10 picks)

This list is short but obvious. Both the Jaguars and the Jets drafted quarterbacks last year. And while both struggled in their rookie seasons (Lawrence ranked 24th and Wilson 25th among 27 QBs who took 50 percent of the teams’ snaps, according to PFF), there is no reason to believe either team will punt on their pick after one year. 

Unlikely to pick a QB: Detroit Lions (No. 2 pick), Houston Texans (No. 3), New York Giants (No. 5, 7)

While the Lions and Texans are both without a long-term solution at quarterback (unless you believe in Davis Mills and his giraffe neck), they are both picking earlier than you’d expect a quarterback to come off the board. One of these teams may fall in love with a quarterback, but both rosters are so depleted and in need of talent, that it’s hard to imagine they pass up a blue-chip prospect at EDGE or offensive tackle to take one of the quarterbacks with massive question marks. Neither team also appears to be in any hurry to win right away, a trait many of these next teams are dealing with. 

At this stage, assuming they don’t trade back, it would be very surprising if they drafted a quarterback.

Firmly in the market for a QB: Carolina Panthers (No. 6), Atlanta Falcons (No. 8) Denver Broncos (No. 9), Washington Commanders (No. 11)

Now, here are the teams you have to be worried about if you are hoping the Vikings draft a quarterback. 

The Panthers’ desire for a quarterback has been well documented dating back to last year. The Sam Darnold experiment failed. And with Matt Rhule’s job future less than secure, it would make sense for them to be looking to make a QB change. They’ll likely pursue one of the unhappy veteran quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Deshaun Watson. But they could also look at the draft. According to CBS Sports’ Jason La Confora, the Panthers are very interested in Pitt’s Kenny Pickett. 

"I don't think he makes it past the Panthers," one evaluator who has done extensive work on Pickett told La Canfora. "Their owner (David Tepper) is a huge Pitt booster.”

Another AFC scout told La Canfora, “We think he's going to Carolina. That's where I would mock him."

The Broncos also figure to be a team in the QB trade market and have long been considered a top destination for Aaron Rodgers. If that doesn’t happen though, you’d expect them to be aggressive in the draft as they have a roster ready to win now. 

The Falcons and the Commanders are the interesting wild cards here. Matt Ryan still has two years left on his deal and more than $40 million in dead cap if they were to cut him this year. If they cut him next year, he’d have $15 million in dead cap. For that reason, they make sense to draft and stash one of the quarterbacks and let him develop. Malik Willis is from Atlanta, so that will be an obvious connection you hear. 

The Commanders will be players in the trade market. If they do not land a new QB via trade, they’ll need to draft one. After Taylor Heinecke’s surprise performance in the 2020 Wild Card game against the Buccaneers left some optimistic, 2021 showed he isn’t the answer. 

What to look for with EDGE rushers at the combine

One of the weirder trends of the 2021 Vikings season was their lack of a consistent pass rush that still resulted in 51 sacks, second-most in the NFL. While they excelled at getting a sack when the opportunity presented itself, they left much to be desired in consistently generating a pass rush. According to ESPN, the Vikings ranked 29th in pass rush win rate at just 34%. And in the run game, the Vikings ranked 31st in run stop win rate at 27%. Play the season over again with those pressure rates, and the sack number is likely much lower. 

Whether or not the Vikings keep Danielle Hunter, improving the consistency of the defensive line is a need that will likely be addressed in the NFL draft. 

So, what things should we be paying attention to when it comes to defensive linemen at the combine? Marcus Mosher, a USA Today writer on the Raiders and Cowboys, recently compiled a list that looked at the combine numbers from the top-10 EDGE rushers of 2021, according to PFF. It also includes the production during their final college season. 

Mosher points out that all of them ran a 4.80 40-yard dash or faster and just one, Rashan Gary, averaged less than one TFL (tackles for loss) per game. And six of the top 10 averaged at least 1.40 TFL per game in their best season. 

Conversely, the list of NFL draft picks that averaged less than 0.8 TFL/game in college is relatively unimpressive.

Now I know what you’re thinking. Wow Paul, you just need to draft someone fast with production? That’s some crazy, never-discovered analysis. Just take Myles Garrett, Von Miller, or a Bosa brother in the draft. How easy.

And while that’s fair, not all those successful names were home run picks. Maxx Crosby was a fourth-round pick. NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein projected him as a backup or special teamer in the NFL. Demarcus Lawerence was a second-round pick. TJ Watt was the 30th pick. They are not all top-five picks. 

So who could fit the bill this year that will be available? (a la, not Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aiden Hutchinson, both likely top-five picks.) We won’t know for sure until the Combine, but here are a couple of names to keep an eye on. 

Cameron Thomas, San Diego State - He’s ranked No. 88 in the latest big board of The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. He compiled 20.5 tackles for loss last year in 14 games (1.46 per game) and will likely run a 40-yard dash right around 4.8. 

Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State - He’s ranked No. 34 on Brugler’s big board. He had 18 tackles for loss in 12 games (1.5 per game) and is also projected to run right around a 4.8 in the 40-yard dash. 

Jermaine Johnson, Florida State - The 15th ranked prospect by Brugler, Johnson led the ACC in tackles for loss (18) and sacks (12). And according to Pro Football Network, he ran a 4.5 40-yard dash in high school. 

Trayvon Walker, Brugler’s sixth-best overall prospect and third-best EDGE prospect, averaged just 0.58 tackles for loss. And while that could just be discounted by the system he played in with Georgia, it’s an interesting stat to monitor. Brugler’s No. 14 prospect, David Ojabo of Michigan, averaged just under one TFL per game as well. 

Logan Hall of Houston and George Karlaftis of Iowa are two other names to watch, both averaged just over 1 TFL per game and are expected to run right around a 4.8 in the 40-yd dash.