SKOL Searching: How the most Vikings-mocked prospects performed
Defensive linemen dominated the Combine and it was a good week for Vikings targets
By Paul Hodowanic
Alrighty, another big pre-draft event is in the books. Growing up, the NFL Combine was one of my favorite things to watch all year. I’d stream it on my phone during classes. I couldn’t miss a 40-yd time. Everything Rich Eisen, Mike Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah told me was gospel.
How weird was I?
It remains one of my favorite weeks of the NFL offseason. And now that it’s over, it is full steam ahead towards the draft, which begins April 26.
So, what did we learn, and how does it impact the Vikings? Let’s dive in…
There will be PLENTY of defensive linemen picked in the Top 50
If you had nothing to do on Saturday afternoon like me (don’t judge, all my roommates were out of town) and you happened to turn on the NFL Combine, boy were you entertained by the defensive lineman.
Entering the week, the defensive line group was already considered the most talented and deep position group in the entire 2022 draft class. NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had 14 defensive line prospects in his top-50. PFF’s big board had 14. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had 12. Each had many more defensive linemen just outside the top-50. After this week, the number is only expected to grow as many of the top prospects cemented their status and others answered some major question marks about their game.
Let’s start at the top. Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson put together a phenomenal combine. While his 4.74 40-yd dash was impressive, what really set him apart were his three-cone (6.73 seconds) and short shuttle (4.15). Those numbers rival most NFL slot wide receivers. Jamar Chase ran a 6.96 three-cone and a 3.99 short shuttle. Stefon Diggs ran a 7.03 three-cone and 4.32 short shuttle. So… yeah. Hutchinson is an animal.
One stat I’ll reference throughout this column is relative athletic score (RAS) which takes all the prospects’ height, weight, bench press, 40-yd dash, 10- and 20-second splits, three-cone, short shuttle, broad and vertical jump stats and compares them against prospects of the same position dating back to 1987.
Hutchinson RAS was in the 98th percentile of all defensive linemen since 1987. The next best defensive lineman, Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, had a RAS in the 96th percentile.
While those two players will be gone by pick No. 12, several others in the Vikings’ range performed incredibly well. Georgia’s Trayvon Walker tested in the 99th percentile, running a 4.51 40-yd dash at 272 pounds. Like Hutchinson, he also put up slot receiver numbers with the three-cone and short shuttle. Michigan’s David Ojabo had a fantastic day, with a relative athletic score in the 91st percentile. Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson and Minnesota’s Boye Mafe also had incredible days.
Finally, Georgia’s Jordan Davis had maybe the best combine performance of any defensive tackle ever. Davis’ athletic score was in the 100th percentile as he ran a 4.78 40-yd dash at 341 (!!!) pounds.
Oh, he also set the broad jump record for anyone over 300 pounds.
I’m getting tired of listing all of them out as so many defensive linemen strung together impressive days. But all of this is good news for the Vikings. There will almost certainly be value at the No. 12 pick, whether that’s Walker, Ojabo, Johnson, Iowa’s George Karlaftis, or others. It also means they could be in a prime spot to trade back, like they did last year, and still take a defensive lineman. If they opt for a different position in round one, there are also likely to be solid options in the second round, like Mafe, although his performance may have pushed him too far up draft boards. Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie and USC’s Drake Jackson are also options.
Time for winners and losers!
Last week, we looked at who was deemed “winners and losers” of previous combines. What we learned is, like the draft, it was pretty random. Many past “winners” went on to be NFL stars. Alvin Kamara, Josh Allen, Derwin James, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Herbert. But nearly as many, or more, of the “winners”, turned out to be relative busts. Garrett Bradbury, Drew Lock, John Ross, Greedy Williams, Jason Spriggs, to name a few.
What we did find is that those that were deemed “losers” often proved to be ineffective. There were only a few examples of prospects that were considered “losers” that turned into stars. And many of them have an added explanation. Lamar Jackson was labeled a loser because he fluttered a few passes and declined to participate in wide receiver drills. Cooper Kupp was named a loser because of a slow 40-yd time. Orlando Brown had no excuse, putting up one of the worst combine performances ever, but he turned out to be a success.
In general, the combine does a good job of weeding out prospects who just don’t have the athleticism, strength, and size to compete at an NFL level.
So, now with the proper context, let’s look at who NFL.com’s draft analysts deemed winners and losers of the week. (Note: No defensive backs were listed as testing was still finishing up on Sunday night)
Winners - Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore, Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave, Maryland tight end Chig Okonkwo, North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson, Liberty quarterback Malik Willis, LSU linebacker Damone Clark, Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, Georgia EDGE Trayvon Walker, Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, NC State offensive tackle Ickey Ekwonu, Washington State offensive tackle Abraham Lucas, Memphis guard Dylan Parham, SDSU running back Pierre Strong, Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III
Losers - Purdue wide receiver David Bell, Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks, Wisconsin tight end Jake Ferguson, South Carolina EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, Texas A&M DeMarvin Leal, Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green, Texas A&M running back Isaiah Spiller, Arizona State center Dohnovan West
How the most mocked Vikings prospects fared
LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. - Stingley chose not to participate in any of the drills at the combine, opting to wait until his pro day on April 6. It was the right choice for him as he’s still recovering from Lisfranc surgery. Here’s what he had to say about his recovery.
"My rehab is ahead of schedule right now,'' Stingley said. "... I'm on pace to do what I have to do at pro day.''
"I'm almost close to 100 percent, right now getting into running, starting to do a couple plants, breaking downhill, that's really where I'm at,'' Stingley said.
Stingley had the surgery in late September and was given a 4-6 month timeline for recovery.
So all the data we have to work on are his measurables. He measured in at 6’0 ¼”, 190 pounds with a 30 ⅝” arm length and 74 ⅛” wingspan. Those numbers are nearly a carbon copy of Carolina Panthers cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
While Stingley said no teams have expressed concern about his injury, ESPN’s Matt Miller tweeted this:
Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner - Sauce had the best day of the top cornerbacks. He ran a 4.41 40-yd dash, which is impressive without any other context. Then add in his freakish length and that makes it even more special. Sauce measured in at 6’2 ½” with 33 ½” arms. To put that in context, of 1,176 CBs at the combine with arm & height measurements since 1987, only six other CBs measured with 33 ½” arms and stood at least 6' ½ -¾.”
He also came to combine looking like this:
Iowa EDGE George Karlaftis - Karlaftis did not run the 40-yd dash or the three-cone but did everything else. He put up a relatively average 21 bench press reps but impressed with elite vertical and broad jumps. Altogether, he tested in the 87th percentile according to RAS.
Washington CB Trent McDuffie - McDuffie ran a similar 40-yd time (4.44) as Sauce but within a much different context. Standing at 5’11 with 29 ¾” arms, his size did raise some question marks. Most successful cornerbacks have 30” inch arms or longer. Here’s a look at recent CBs who haven’t met that threshold.
Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum - Linderbaum was another prospect that declined to do all combine drills. He will go through all those drills during his pro day. So all that’s left to dissect is his measurables, which many have over the last 48 hours.
Linderbaum was measured with 31 ⅛ ” arms. Which gives him one of the smallest arm lengths out of any offensive linemen since 2000. For reference, Garrett Bradbury arms are 31 ¾”. We will have to see if that negatively affects his draft stock over the next few weeks.
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