SKOL Searching: How have the Vikings drafted in recent years?

Paul Hodowanic looks at the data behind drafts that have shaped the current roster

Feb 27, 2022

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By Paul Hodowanic

@PaulHodowanic on Twitter

Alright folks, the NFL Combine is next week so let’s get right into it…

Understanding Combine Measurables

Incessantly watching the NFL Combine on NFL Network is one of my favorite pre-draft traditions. But even having done it countless times, it’s often still hard to track what it all means. Is Cam Dantzler’s 4.64 40-yd dash a red flag? Should I care how many bench reps a linebacker puts up? What does the broad jump tell us?

That’s why I really enjoyed when ESPN’s Todd McShay put together this guide ahead of the combine a few years ago. It goes through each combine drill and explains why it matters and which positions it tells us the most about. It also gives you a measurable range that you can use in real-time to understand how prospects stack up.

Take the broad jump, for example:

I also found some fun 40-yd dash data courtesy of Marus Mosher – who continues to be a really good draft follow on Twitter – that illustrates what certain red flags are.

Let’s start with wide receivers. Mosher compiled a list of wide receivers who ran a 4.61 or worse at the combine. And the results are… less than ideal. Feel free to peruse the whole list, but here are the highlights.

Of the list of 157 wide receivers, the only two true difference makers were Cooper Kupp (4.62) and Anquan Boldin (4.72). There’s arguments for other guys like Jarvis Landry, Quintez Cephus and a few others, but largely this is a who’s who list of mediocrity. Moral of the story: watch out for any wide receiver that runs a 4.61 or higher.

Next up, cornerbacks.

Other than Josh Norman (4.61), it’s hard to go to bat for many of these guys. Brashaud Breeland, Brandon Browner, Terrance Mitchell and Jarius Byrd are really the only others that have started for multiple seasons.

And one last one. Defensive ends and the 3-cone.

There have hardly been any successful defensive ends in the NFL that run a 3-Cone in 7.50 seconds or longer. Robert Ayers, Matthew Judon, Larry Ogunjobi, Jason Hatcher. When those are among the lone success stories, it’s probably a good indicator of when a defensive end is too slow to work out.

In all of these, there are outliers. You may find a Cooper Kupp or Josh Norman, but it’s unlikely. Going through this exercise along with reading McShay’s combine guide made me realize that we fawn so much over who ran a 4.2 when we should really be paying closer attention to some of these historical benchmarks.

History of Combines past

The cycle after every big pre-draft event, from the Senior Bowl to the NFL Combine to Pro Days, includes the inevitable list of “Winners and Losers.” It’s a valuable exercise, don’t get me wrong. We’ll likely compile one next week. But every year I wonder how much it means. Are these performances really a sneak peek of NFL success or just a few athletic freaks that have their week in the spotlight before fizzling out once they start playing on Sundays?

So I looked back at the last five years (note: 2021 NFL combine was canceled because of COVID-19), finding various NFL Draft Combine recaps and compiling a list of winners and losers.

2016

Winners - Quarterback Carson Wentz, tight end Nick Vannett, defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, offensive tackle Jason Spriggs, cornerback William Jackson, wide receiver Marquez North

Losers - Linebacker Jaylon Smith, defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, quarterback Cardale Jones, wide receiver De’Runnya Wilson

2017

Winners - cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, running back Alvin Kamara, linebacker Haason Reddick, wide receiver John Ross, quarterback DeShaun Watson

Losers - linebacker Rueben Foster, running back Wayne Gallman, quarterback Brad Kaaya, wide receiver Cooper Kupp, cornerback Teez Tabor

2018

Winners - Quarterback Josh Allen, tight end Mike Gesicki, wide receiver Antonio Callaway, running back Saquon Barkley, offensive guard Will Hernandez, linebacker Shaquem Griffin, defensive back Derwin James

Losers - Quarterback Lamar Jackson, quarterback Josh Rosen, offensive tackle Orlando Brown, running back Ronald Jones, cornerback Josh Jackson

2019

Winners - Center Garrett Bradbury, wide receiver A.J. Brown, wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, offensive tackle Andre Dillard, quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, cornerback Greedy Williams,

Losers - Wide receiver N’Keal Harry, offensive tackle Greg Little, EDGE Jachai Polite, linebacker Mack Wilson, cornerback Joejuan Williams, running back Devin Singletary

2020

Winners - Quarterback Justin Herbert, tight end Harrison Bryant, wide receiver Aaron Fuller, wide receiver Josh Hightower, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, wide receiver Quez Watkins

Losers - Quarterback Jake Fromm, tight end Jared Pinkney, wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr.

So, what can we take from this? First, it’s bad to be a loser.

Other than Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown, and Cooper Kupp, there weren’t many success stories from that category. Jackson was still squarely in the debate of whether he should be a QB or WR at the next level. Like we saw from the 40 times earlier, Kupp ran slow. As for Brown, NFL.com draft analyst Bucky Brooks called it one of the “worst athletic displays I've ever seen at the NFL Scouting Combine.”

But generally, analysts have been able to understand bad combine performances and project out mediocre NFL careers.

Now for the winners, this one is much more of a mixed bag. There are extreme highs like Alvin Kamara, Josh Allen, D.K. Metcalf and DeShaun Watson. But Garrett Bradbury, Drew Lock, and Jason Spriggs were also deemed winners.

My main takeaway from this: the winners and losers lists: If your favorite prospect is on the losers list, be wary. If your favorite prospect is a winner, meh.

How the Vikings have drafted

PFF recently published an article (behind their paywall) looking at the historical draft success of all 32 teams. It’s a really interesting read and one I’d recommend (quick shoutout to PFF, they’ve been putting together some really excellent draft content that has easily been worth my subscription).

Of course, my eyes immediately went to where the Vikings ranked. And it quickly reaffirmed what I believe is now becoming indisputable: the Rick Spielman era was defined with some really extraordinary draft hits along with far too many busts that held the overall roster back.

This is a very busy chart, but you’ll find the Vikings smack dab in the middle. Each dot represents a draft pick between 2018-2021. With the Vikings, you see plenty of dots on either end of the spectrum and in the middle you see hardly anything. Between the 30th and 65th percentile, it’s almost empty. It’s either been non-impact players or highly productive starts. If you look at a top team like the Buccaneers, look how many draft picks make up that middle part of the graph. Eliminating those busts and turning them into halfway decent players has raised their draft success significantly. Same goes for a team like the Ravens, which has a ton of draft picks right around the 50th percentile.

There is so much to learn in this article, but I’ll highlight one more chart that I think is representative of the Vikings draft history and recent years and gives credence to the idea that the roster needs some work before they can be considered Super Bowl contenders.

The Vikings rank 22nd in total wins above replacement generated from players drafted since 2019. A pivotal piece to winning is getting value from rookie contracts and the Vikings haven’t done it. Without Justin Jefferson, I anticipate they’d be nearly last on this list. The new regime will have to do better at drafting competent players who can fill roles on their rookie deals when their value is greatest.

Familiarize yourself with the top prospects

If you’re just beginning your draft reading and want to get fully up to speed for the NFL Combine and beyond. Here are a couple other resources (that aren’t behind a paywall) that I recommend.

PFF’s list of top-10 prospects at each position - A nice, succinct look at the top names to watch for at the combine

2022 consensus big board (based off of 30 different rankings) - Our best look at how the draft industry, as a whole, currently view this class

The Ringer’s NFL Draft Guide - A visually appealing and entertaining look at the top prospects

PFF’s Draft Simulator - The best way to learn is to start drafting and seeing who is out there when the Vikings may draft. Get involved and share your mocks with us!

Draft Sim!

As we do every week, let’s finish this off with a draft sim!

I looked at trading up around the pick seven or eight range because no quarterbacks had been taken yet. I held off thinking that one of either Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis would be there at 12. I was right. In fact, both were available as no QBs had been taken. So I went with Willis. He is becoming my favorite QB in this class because of his upside. He’s got noticeable flaws but let’s take a shot.

Next, I used a new feature on the draft simulator this year. PFF will now tell how likely your trade is to happen. I didn’t love anyone at the No. 44 spot so I traded down, got some assets and PFF approved the trade and said it would get accepted 60 percent of the time.

From there I grabbed a cornerback, EDGE rusher and guard and then picked best player available the rest of the way.

At least until the punter pick. But I mean look at this punt. He had several 80-yard punts this year. Sign me up!