SKOL Searching: Do the Vikings need to draft a cornerback now?
Paul Hodowanic investigates the cornerback draft and whether filling an immediate need with a CB is smart
By Paul Hodowanic
Well, we have made it through the first phase of the free agency period, now it’s time to turn our sights to the draft. Let’s get into the Vikings’ situation in the secondary to start…
Do the Vikings need to draft a cornerback in the first round?
It’s a question that I’ve seen floated by many analysts and fans in the last week.
As soon as the news broke that Za’Darius Smith was coming to Minnesota, the natural assumption was that cornerback would be priority No. 1 in the draft. If we assume the D-line is set, cornerback is now the biggest hole on the roster. And with the other biggest hole, interior offensive line, not considered a first-round value, at least with a top-15 pick, it’s natural to key in on a cornerback at No. 12.
But that assumption is predicated on the idea that the Vikings need to be using the No. 12 pick to fill an immediate hole, thus expecting immediate production from whichever cornerback they pick. That’s a big gamble with cornerbacks, more so than other positions. If teams draft wide receivers or running backs, those are positions that frequently see rookies step in right away and give a lot of value. The Vikings are evidence of this with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Likewise, they are also evidence of the lack of initial cornerback success with Jeff Gladney and Mike Hughes.
Here’s a look at the first-round defensive backs in the last four drafts and their PFF grades at the end of the season. For reference, a grade of 70-79 is starter level. 60-69 is backup and less than 60 is replaceable.
2021
Jaycee Horn - 67.8
Patrick Surtain - 66.1
Caleb Farley - 45.7
Greg Newsome - 68.1
Eric Stokes - 65.5
2020
Jeff Okudah - 42.5
CJ Henderson - 57.9
A.J. Terell - 60.8
Damon Arnette - 41.9
Noah Igbinoghene - 37.1
Jeff Gladney - 50.1
2019
Darnell Savage - 65.7
Jonathan Abram - 38.7 (played one game)
DeAndre Baker - 48.4
2018
Denzel Ward - 78.9
Minkah Fitzpatrick - 61.9
Derwin James - 87.8
Jaire Alexander - 72.4
Terrell Edmunds - 63.7
Mike Hughes - 65.3
What we find is that nearly all the first-round picks fail to hit that 70 grade, a benchmark for a starter. Put another way, Cam Dantzler finished with a 73.8 grade last season. Dantzler was a serviceable starter for the Vikings. Only two rookie defensive backs in the last four years have eclipsed that grade.
Does that mean the Vikings shouldn’t draft a first-round cornerback?
No. Cornerback is a crucial position in today’s NFL and the Vikings currently have a massive hole. It’s not only an immediate need but it’s a long-term need as well. Other than Dantzler, the Vikings have no cornerbacks that seem primed for sustained success in Minnesota.
But if the Vikings do take a cornerback, the expectation should not immediately be that the cornerback is going to be a contributor or even a net-positive to the defense. The safer assumption is that they will be a slightly below-average piece for the first year. Anything better than that is an outlier. So the Vikings should be looking at other avenues to bolster its defensive back room because one or two rookies will not suffice for a team that is looking to content right now.
It also reinforces that the Vikings cannot reach for a position of need. They’ve done that before with the likes of Garrett Bradbury and Christian Ponder.
And with the current state of the draft, there’s a chance they could reach if they marry themselves to the idea of taking a cornerback because there is a consensus top-two at the position: Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr.
Both Gardner and Stingley are top-10 picks according to the NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2022 Consensus Big Board, which compiles its rankings with 43 analysts’ big boards. After that, Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. is next at No. 25 and Washington’s Trent McDuffie is at No. 26.
With several cornerback-needy teams ahead of the Vikings, like the Texans, Seahawks, Jets and Commanders, it is entirely possible Gardner and Stingley are gone. Looking through mock drafts, it seems like a foregone conclusion Gardner is picked before No. 12 with Stingley much more likely to make it to the Vikings.
So what happens if the top-two cornerbacks are gone? We don’t know how the Vikings feel about Booth, McDuffie, or the rest of the cornerback group, and we have no historical data to point to what Kwesi Adofo-Mensah looks for in cornerbacks or if he would prioritize need over a best player available approach. So it’s difficult.
I would advocate for the Vikings to stay at No. 12 and take the best player available that isn’t an offensive tackle, likely a defensive end or a wide receiver. While not as pressing of a need as a cornerback, both are future needs. Danielle Hunter’s future beyond this year is murky and the make-up of Za’Darius Smith’s deal casts doubt he’ll be here for the full three seasons. Plus both are injury-prone.
We talked about the Vikings taking a wide receiver in last week’s column, but I think that would be another viable option at No. 12.
If they do decide they need a cornerback, they will likely be able to trade down and still grab Booth, McDuffie, or another cornerback later in the first round. A potential QB-needy team could be a target for a trade down. But I’d caution, trading down sounds great, but the further you trade down, the less likely you are to nab a franchise-changing piece.
How has free agency affected draft needs?
The Vikings’ draft needs haven’t changed much at all because of free agency. Maybe their need for an EDGE is less pressing, but there is still a lot of long-term uncertainty at the position. But what about the teams picking right before the Vikings? Have any major transactions drastically shifted their draft needs? Let’s look.
The Commanders
Washington’s most notable move came with the acquisition of Carson Wentz from Indianapolis. And while it’s debatable whether it should, it appears that move has taken them out of the QB sweepstakes as Ben Standig, a senior writer for the Athletic recently said “multiple league sources do not see Washington selecting a quarterback in the first round."
That means Washington’s biggest needs are wide receiver cornerback and interior offensive line. They have made little progress in fixing those areas. They released IOL Ereck Flowers and lost Bradon Scherff, who got a massive deal with the Jaguars. They did sign guard Andrew Norwell, which will fill one of those spots. They have not signed any outside free agents at WR or CB.
The Jets
New York has been pretty busy in free agency. They signed guard Laken Tomlinson, PFF’s No. 29 free agent, who will fill in the other guard spot with Alijah Vera-Tucker. They added some defensive back help, signing CB D.J. Reed Jr from the Seahawks, and safety Jordan Whitehead. And they addressed their tight end hole with a couple signings, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin.
The Jets still need some help in the secondary despite the signings as they lost safety Marcus Maye, who signed with the New Orleans Saints. They also have not addressed their need at EDGE or offensive tackle.
The Seahawks
Russell Wilson is obviously the Seahawks’ biggest loss and puts them squarely in the market for a QB. For Vikings fans still hopeful that QB could be the pick at No. 12, this actually doesn’t change much because the Broncos previously held this spot and would’ve been a likely contender for a QB had they not traded for Wilson.
But the Seahawks have lost several other notable players, including D.J. Reed and Bobby Wagner. Along with QB, their biggest needs are at offensive tackle and cornerback. They addressed EDGE with the signing of Uchenna Nwosu which will likely put that down on the priority list.
The Falcons
Like the Seahawks, the Falcons are now right in the hunt for a QB. They aren’t as desperate as the Seahawks though, as they quickly signed Marcus Mariota after trading Matt Ryan.
"If we feel great about a quarterback at whatever pick, then we're going to take a quarterback," general manager Terry Fontenot said during a press conference. "If we don't, then we are not going to reach and do something that we're not excited about. We're going to dig into this class, but we're not going to feel pressured to do anything."
Outside of that, they are in desperate need of a wide receiver with the departure of Russell Gage and the suspension of Calvin Ridley. That is undoubtedly their biggest need.
The Giants
The Giants have largely shopped in the bargain bin for free agents as they had very little financial flexibility. That means many of the same needs still exist, EDGE and LB being at the top. The team also needs help at pretty much every spot on the offensive line.
What does this all mean for the Vikings? Well, you would’ve liked to see some of the teams that have similar needs to the Vikings address them meaningfully in free agency. When it comes to cornerback, interior offensive line, and wide receiver, none of the teams that had those needs have done much to address them. Same for quarterbacks, one QB-needy team swapped out for another (Broncos and Seahawks) and one was added (Falcons).
Draft sim!
My worries were a reality in this one as Gardner and Stingley went back-to-back to the Falcons and the Seahawks. I thought about trading back, but George Karlaftis was there and the chance to grab a blue-chip EDGE was too enticing. Luckily, cornerback Jalen Pitre was available at No. 44. At No. 77, I doubled down on EDGE as Cam Thomas was easily the best player available at that point. He’s also been one of my favorite mid-round picks as I’ve dived into the EDGE group. Let me know what you think!
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Actually, given the idea that next year has 2 stud qb talents (and maybe more) a trade down scenario where the Vikings get a 1st rounder for next year might not be a bad idea (if your top targets are gone) No way we get Sauce at this point
Great article, love how you break down first year success rate for CB’s, it would be foolish to think they would immediately help which pins the hope on bringing Peterson back or bolstering that group in FA.