Simulating 3 Vikings draft scenarios
Our first draft simulation of draft season can't include just one route for the Vikings with all the options available
By Matthew Coller
The Minnesota Vikings are only three-and-a-half weeks from a draft day that will shape their future for years to come. No big deal, right?
In the next 25 days leading up to the draft they will be sorting out all the potential avenues that they can go with the No. 11 and 23rd overall picks, whether it’s stickin’ and pickin’ or trading up to No. 3, 4 or 5. They need to decide whether a quarterback prospect is worth selling the house or how far other prospects might fall. What pre-draft hype is real and which reports are smokescreens.
How can we sort through all the ways the draft could go for the Vikings? By simulating the draft, of course. Using the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, we can propose trades and see how the board plays out when it’s out of our control, unlike a normal mock draft.
With all the possibilities on the table, let’s have a look at three different outcomes and break down which one would be most ideal…..
DRAFT SIM 1: Stick and Pick
At the owner’s meetings in Orlando, Kevin O’Connell talked about how sticking at 11 might allow for the Vikings to get the best defensive player in the entire draft considering all the offensive talent being picked at the top. How would that scenario look?
Here’s what the PFF simulator came up with:
In this case, the Vikings land the immensely talented Murphy II, who graded 91.5 (out of 100) as a pass rusher this year by PFF and picked up 45 QB pressures in just 273 pass rush snaps. He isn’t the tallest (just short of 6-foot-1) but his NFL Combine performance was strong. Murphy II scored in the 92nd percentile of Combine performances by DTs per Relative Athletic Score.
NFL.com wrote: “Murphy is powerful and well-schooled at taking on double-teams but lacks ideal mass and length for that role long-term. He’s successful at bypassing protection with sudden hands and quick feet, while his motor and passion create an activity level coaches will love. Forget the average physical traits and modest production and focus on his competitive spirit and disruptive qualities.”
The interior of the Vikings’ defensive line has lacked bite since Sheldon Richardson racked up 4.5 sacks and 47 total QB pressures in 2018. Last year Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Bullard combined had 5.0 sacks and 30 pressures on 764 pass rush snaps combined. In the base-case scenario, Murphy II would drop into a rotation with Phillips, Bullard and vets Jerry Tillery and Jonah Williams to bring a pass rush element right away to Brian Flores’ defense and then ideally develop into an every-down player.
With the 23rd pick, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was still on the board. If the Vikings are going to use the 11th selection on defense, they best be sure that their QB of the future isn’t going to get snatched out from under their noses before 23.
How realistic is it that Penix Jr. will still be there? Mock Draft Database has Penix Jr. listed as the consensus 36th best player in the draft, which bodes well for his chances of being taken later in the first round if we factor positional value but there are several other teams that could be seeking a quarterback before the Vikings pick at 23. The Broncos and Raiders are the most notable but it also wouldn’t be outrageous for the Seahawks to look at Penix Jr. at No. 16.
If the Broncos and Raiders have other solutions and Seattle sticks with Geno Smith long term, then the Vikings could be in position to land a rocket-armed QB to pair with their offensive weapons without using a top pick.
Is that ideal in comparison to taking someone in the top four? It’s hard to know based on history because every QB is different but here’s how QB5 turned out since 2010 when all the quarterbacks were taken in the first two rounds: Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Osweiler, Andy Dalton.
Here’s how things played out with the entire first round in this simulation:
Out of the 10 picks ahead of the Vikings, nine of them were offensive players, which speaks to O’Connell’s theory about landing the best defensive prospect in the draft if the Vikings hang around at No. 11. With no other trades on the board, JJ McCarthy went to the most natural landing spot with the New York Giants and the Broncos and Raiders elected not to take either Penix Jr. or Bo Nix. In reality, if Nix or Penix Jr. are considered first-round prospects, it seems plausible that one of the two would be taken by either Denver or Las Vegas. That’s when the Vikings would start sweating.
Instead they come away with a pass rushing DT and a mature big-armed QB of the future. They would likely prefer to take one of the top prospects but would still leave draft night improved on defense and with a chance to build around a rookie QB contract.
DRAFT SIM 2: The mild trade up
The owner of the Patriots Robert Kraft opened the door for potentially swapping picks with a desperate club but if the Vikings do not want to pay New England’s price or Kraft was bluffing then GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may have to look for other friends to trade with.
In this case, that friend is the Los Angeles Chargers. This simulation sees the Vikings trade the No. 11, 23, 108 and 157th picks for No. 5 and No. 69 overall. Both teams are likely to have different draft value charts than the classic Jimmy Johnson chart but per the old school method the Vikings would be giving up 2,116 points and Chargers 1,945.
Where it could divert from being an even deal is with competition for the No. 5 selection. But the Chargers might not be willing to give a quarterback prospect to the Broncos or Raiders, leaving them to try to convince Arizona, who may want to stay at No. 4 and take Marvin Harrison Jr.
So the Vikings land JJ McCarthy with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels off the board and pick up a developmental edge rushing prospect Gabriel Murphy in the process. Murphy lined up in different places for the Bruins last season and produced 61 QB pressures in 355 pass rush snaps and registered an 87.6 PFF pass rushing grade.
The bottom line of this scenario would be the Vikings avoiding giving up their 2025 first-round draft pick and still landing the Michigan product and an additional prospect in the top 70. It would be the best of both worlds — a top player and draft capital to continue loading up the roster.
DRAFT SIM 3: Giving up the farm
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