Second guess away but Vikings didn't lose on Zimmer's fourth down call

Vikings fans are debating Zimmer's fourth-and-1 call after loss to Seahawks

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You play. To win. The game.

That was Mike Zimmer’s mentality when he decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 on Sunday night.

"I knew if we got that half-a-yard we win the game, I was trying to win it,” Zimmer said following the 27-26 Minnesota Vikings’ loss on the road to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Vikings were on the doorstep of a season-changing win against the undefeated Seahawks with a 26-21 lead late in the fourth quarter. On fourth down on Seattle’s 6-yard line, running back Alexander Mattison was stuffed, giving MVP candidate Russell Wilson the ball with 1:57 remaining in the game.

Zimmer’s choice on that game-altering fourth down was between kicking a chip-shot field goal to go up eight points or attempt to end the game on a single handoff. The obvious risk of the fourth down attempt was giving the ball back to Wilson with a chance to win the game rather than forcing him to score and produce a two-point conversion.

Let’s have a look at what the numbers tell us about Zimmer’s decision…

The Vikings had a 96% chance by ESPN’s Win Probability before a third-and-4 reverse to Adam Thielen was stopped one yard short of the first down. Even after they failed on fourth down and gave the ball back to Seattle, the Vikings still had an 86.2% chance to win. According to Pro-Football Reference’s Win Probability Calculator, the Vikings’ odds would have been 96% had they kicked a field goal.

So it breaks down this way: 100% with a first down, 96% field goal, 86% failed fourth down.

What does that mean? At the time of the decision, Zimmer’s risk, by the numbers, had huge rewards and a relatively small percentage chance of it coming back to bite him. But kicking the field goal also had low odds of going the wrong way.

“That was a great situation to just end the game and it’s on us as an offense,” receiver Adam Thielen said. “We need one yard, and we’ve got to get that done, to end it with us as the offense on the field. And we had an opportunity, obviously. They made one more play than us.”

The Vikings actually continued to be heavily favored by the Win Probability during the final Seahawks drive.

Seattle’s odds to win on fourth-and-10 at the Seattle 23 were still over 70%, per the ESPN calculator. But Wilson hit DK Metcalf on a deep shot down the sideline — the type of pass the Vikings largely took away all game. The Vikings again had nearly a 70% chance to win when Seattle had fourth down at the goal line and Wilson made a terrific throw again to Metcalf for the game-winning touchdown.

Putting the numbers altogether, we end up with this: There was a very good argument to kick the field goal but the Vikings still had all sorts of opportunities to still win the game on defense after they did not convert on fourth down.

“On that final drive, I think our defense did a great job of having a chance to win,” linebacker Eric Wilson said. “We’ve had a couple chances to win the game on defense that final drive, we just have to finish the game. We just have to finish the game. We’re right there. The plays are right there to be made, we just have to finish it.” 

Another conclusion to draw would be: The decision will be remembered because it blew up in the Vikings’ face but there were all sorts of other reasons they lost, especially failing to stop two fourth downs.

“Gut-wrenching, heartbreaking loss... Disappointing,” Zimmer said. “We did a lot of positive things, played really hard, proud of my teammates but obviously we all have a sick feeling as we head back to Minnesota. A lot of plays we'd love to have back but that's kind of the nature of this business when you lose.”

Not to mention that the Vikings had a 13-0 lead in the first quarter, which they squandered away in the third quarter with back-to-back turnovers that led to Seahawk touchdowns.

When the Vikings shut down Seattle’s third-and-1 run to open the second half, they had an 88% chance to win the game. Cousins’s fumble dropped the game to a 50-50 proposition and his interception sunk the Vikings’ odds to under 30%. It took heroic efforts on offense in order to get back on the right side of the probabilities.

Overall the Vikings out-gained Seattle 449 to 319 on offense, held the Seahawks to 0-for-7 on third down, held the ball for 39:28 and lost the game. They outplayed Seattle for the vast majority and come up short when it mattered most.

In the end, Zimmer made a decision to give his team a chance to make a winning play. They didn’t. And that has been the story of the Vikings in Seattle many times in the Zimmer era and the story of the 1-4 start to the 2020 season.

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