Sam Darnold is doing all the things elite quarterbacks do
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — No matter how much football has changed through the years, there have always been fundamental truths about what traits make up excellence at the quarterback position.
In the mid-80s, NFL Films produced a video narrated by the legendary John Facenda called “Best Ever Quarterbacks” that highlighted the previous generation’s greatest QBs, including the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach and Minnesota Viking Fran Tarkenton. Amidst slow motion highlights, Facenda poetically describes each man’s game and why they were the best ever.
Bradshaw had the arm to maximize his wide receivers’ skills with the deep ball.
“Bradshaw benefitted from a stable of swift and graceful receivers, who in turn benefitted from his awesome, arching rockets,” Facenda read slowly over 60-yard deep throws.
Staubach was a clutch king — the video notes his 23 come-from-behind victories as proof.
“Resiliency made him a winner,” Facenda said of Staubach.
Tarkenton’s playmaking was the central figure of his vignette.
“He was the most imaginative quarterback who has ever played pro football,” Facenda said of Tarkenton.
If we look around the NFL in 2024, the best quarterbacks still possess the same skills as they did in the early days of the league.
As the weeks have gone on, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has crossed off many of the boxes from the “Best Ever Quarterbacks” checklist. His imaginative play was on display against the Atlanta Falcons when he escaped the rush to produce a 52-yard touchdown. His arm strength and mutually-beneficial relationship with his receivers has been on display countless times. His resiliency within this season stood out against Arizona and Seattle, when he led game-winning drives. It shines even more against the backdrop of the early part of his career.
Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips addressed several of Facenda’s keys to the quarterback position.
On Darnold’s playmaking, Phillips said:
“He's able to keep plays alive and give guys an extra click to separate. Those things are really valuable. And then what he does, stealing us yards…he had a five- and then a nine-[yard run] to convert [against Seattle]…you've seen it over and over and over again. Those things add up throughout the season and within a game. It's just a really valuable thing. Ideally, you have a good athlete back there that can both play from the pocket and then make some plays with his legs.”
On Darnold’s chemistry with superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, Phillips said:
“I think it's practice…watching the tape back, watching practice film throughout, just seeing how he moves and kind of where he's going to be depending on the particular route. All those things contribute and then they're both kind of gamers out there on the field. So sometimes they've been able to make some plays off schedule.”
On Darnold’s leadership in big moments, Phillips said:
“Leaders can lead in a lot of different ways….I've seen a lot of guys over the years voted captain that you wouldn't necessarily say they exemplify every single thing of, you know, Remember The Titans. You have to be a good football player. You have to go out and make plays…the guys understand the challenges that our quarterback has, the type of game plans we put in, the things that they have to know, changing plays from one to the next. They understand the type of work.”
While Darnold fits the NFL Films description of the best quarterbacks, he also matches up with the top players at the position from a statistical perspective. Among QBs with at least 300 attempts, Darnold is the sixth highest graded player at his position by Pro Football Focus. He has the fourth highest quarterback rating. He has the third most “Big-Time Throws” and the sixth most total yards. The Vikings QB has 22 first downs rushing to his name as well.
Darnold leads the NFL in deep passing yards (throws over 20 yards in the air). He also grades as the third best passer on short throws (0-9 yards). He has been leaned on heavily by Kevin O’Connell, throwing the 10th most passes and he has been dynamic under pressure with the third highest PFF grade under duress in the NFL. Darnold has five game-winning drives, three fourth-quarter comebacks.
If Darnold has compared favorably with his NFL Films-y skills, how does he compare to the NFL’s elite passers on paper?
Let’s compare with an old-school stat to begin: Quarterback rating. While it’s far from perfect, QB rating is known to correlate with winning. By that metric, Darnold is having the seventh best single season of the last three years.
Another efficiency metric that has predictive nature is Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt. It takes traditional yards per attempt and factors in sacks and interceptions. Cumulatively since 2022, Darnold has the seventh best ANY/A.
Trying to separate a quarterback’s talent from their supporting cast and coaching is the most difficult thing in the sport but Pro Football Focus’s grades help us better understand if a quarterback is driving the success with his play by grading how the QB did his job on each individual play. By that measure, Darnold is sixth this season:
Adding further detail to how a quarterback posted his numbers is the “Big-Time Throw” metric, which calculates the percentage of a quarterback’s throws that are high difficult and/or into tight-windows. Darnold ranks third in that category.
Some quarterbacks can post good numbers when it comes to efficiency but not volume and thus are limited in their total value. In terms of passing, the Vikings have created the fifth most passing value in terms of Expected Points Added. The teams ahead of them are quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
It doesn’t take a microscope to see that Darnold’s performance in 2024 has been right in the mix with the “Best Ever [in 2024] Quarterbacks.”
Is it enough to lead the Vikings deep into the playoffs? What does it mean for his future?
In the last 10 years, there have been only 7 times (out of a possible 20) that the QB who appeared in the Super Bowl that had a higher QB rating in the regular season than Darnold does so far this year.
His PFF grade of 86.0 is in the ballpark of recent Super Bowl-appearing QBs like Brock Purdy (88.4 in 2023), Patrick Mahomes (85.1 in 2023) and Jalen Hurts (85.9 in 2022) and it’s higher than Matthew Stafford (80.7 in 2021). But it’s not quite at the level of Mahomes 2022 (91.3) or Joe Burrow (91.7 in 2021).
Darnold may have been in the top tier of the league but he isn’t perfect. He still has the seventh highest turnover-worthy play rate and ranks fifth highest in sack percentage.
Going deep in the playoffs is always a fickle thing for quarterbacks anyway. Eli Manning famously won two Super Bowls but never won a playoff game outside of those two years. Aaron Rodgers won MVP in back-to-back years, only to fall in the postseason. Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl in his worst season (2015).
What having an NFL Films-worthy skill set and top-notch numbers does is put Darnold and the Vikings in the conversation as a club that could go deep in the postseason. There are other QBs with very similar resumes in the NFC though i.e. Hurts, Goff, Love, Daniels, Stafford.
As far as his future, the sample size keeps growing of Darnold playing excellent football. Since 2022, he has started 22 games and won 17 of them with 40 TD, 14 INT, 8.1 YPA and 102.2 rating.
One thing the league shows us by the teams that are in the postseason is that elite QB play is worth paying for. Teams with QBs on expensive second contracts (or more) include: Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, Los Angeles Chargers, Philly, Detroit, Green Bay and Los Angeles Rams.
In fact, this year the only playoff teams with rookie QB contracts are Houston, Denver and Washington. The Steelers and Vikings have cheap veterans.
There is still a long way to go before the Vikings have to make a decision on Darnold but if he plays well in the next two games he will have produced one of the best seasons at the QB position in Viking history. And he’s done so with his arm, chemistry with receivers, playmaking and resilience in the biggest moments. Hey, maybe NFL Films will do a feature on his 2024 season someday.
Love this article. My question for the mailbag was going to be where Matthew ranks Darnold among QBs this year and more importantly why, but this article covers everything that question would have asked for and more. Whether he's technically fifth, sixth, tenth doesn't really matter a ton to me; he's clutch, he escapes pressure and makes throws Kirk couldn't or wouldn't, he fits KOC's offense perfectly, he'll take sacks now versus some of the passes he made early in the year, and his teammates seem to love him (as Chris Simms called out multiple times this week on seeing Risner and others hugging Sam after that pass to Jefferson). He's a genuinely good guy and a quarterback who gives his team a chance to win every week. I don't think you can ask for more than that.
Darnold passes the eye test easily. Cousins never did for me.
I received a ton of "I'm sorry to hear about JJM being injured" texts when that happened from friends and family. My consistent response was that I was not worried about it at all, and it may pay off handsomely in the long run, as JJM would get a true sit-back and learn gig, and I felt that Darnold had never been given a real chance to succeed, and there was a reason he was the #3 pick in the draft. WIth KOC running the offense, I was even less worried. Denny Green had a knack with QBs, KOC is even better.
While I was not worried, I never dreamed it would go this well though.