Researching Vikings' QB decision leads to only one conclusion...

There is too much information in this QB-crazy world but at the end of the day, well, the man in charge is probably best for the job

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By Matthew Coller

Since it became clear that the Minnesota Vikings were going to draft a quarterback — i.e. the day Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons — I have been poring over scouting reports and college QB data like it was the final test to graduate from law school.

If data-drive general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah called me in the middle of the night asking for Drake Maye’s turnover-worthy play rate or JJ McCarthy’s performance against the blitz or Jayden Daniels’ yards per scramble, I could spout those numbers back to him without having to log onto PFF.com.

I’ve spent weeks looking for the numbers that might provide the answers to which one of these quarterbacks the Vikings might be enamored with. Would they appreciate the fact that Michael Penix Jr. led college football in big-time throws? Would they be down on Bo Nix’s percentage of passes tossed behind the line of scrimmage? Would Maye’s decline in box score stats in 2023 be a pitfall or would they consider that he overcame some spotty play around him?

Maybe history will point us in the right direction. Which QB stats have led to success? Which backgrounds? Is the fella who rises late in the mock draft process the one who goes bust? Does that mean beware of McCarthy? Does it matter that historical busts have taken too many sacks in college? Watch out for Jayden Daniels in that case. What about age? Are Penix Jr. and Nix the next Brandon Weeden?

How can we even figure out how many of these guys are actually first-round quarterbacks? In the last two years we were sold on Kenny Pickett as a top-five QB and he ended up going 20th, Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder as first-rounders and they were third-rounders and Will Levis as the next Josh Allen when it turned out that nobody in the NFL actually thought that was true.

I’ve also been reading every draft analyst, insider and scout’s take on the QB class and I have determined that Maye is somewhere between QB1 and QB6, McCarthy is either No. 2 overall or wildly overrated, Penix Jr. is the fastest man alive and can’t scramble without tripping over his shoelaces and Bo Nix’s real name is Bo Nix. It’s not short for anything. Oh, and he’s a brilliant field general with a noodle arm… or something like that.

All of this deep diving work has led me to the following opinions:

— Drake Maye is probably worth trading everything

— JJ McCarthy is easy to talk yourself into but it wouldn’t be shocking if the outside world overvalued him

— Michael Penix Jr. is a great prospect with shortcomings that could make him drop

— Bo Nix doesn’t have a high enough ceiling to take anywhere but the back end of the first round

— Jayden Daniels doesn’t seem like a good fit for the Vikings and also has a decent chance to win an MVP someday

— Caleb Williams is going to the Bears

Guess how many of these takes that I’m confident in: One. Caleb Williams, you are a Chicago Bear.

Other than that, I could be talked out of any of these in a minute by Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. If the former third-round pick, ex-QB coach and Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator who seemed to wrangle Kirk Cousins into a clutch quarterback told me that he wasn’t a fan of Maye, thought Penix Jr.’s knees were about to burst and felt Daniels was the greatest Viking fit since Daunte Culpepper, I’d switch all of my takes in a moment.

You have to understand what a strange place this within the business of second guessing.

When O’Connell punts, we ask if he should have gone for it. When O’Connell runs a failed trick play, we roast it into the sun. When O’Connell plays Jaren Hall over Nick Mullens, we second guess it after seeing the results and when Josh Dobbs struggles within his offense we ask if he adjusted it enough to fit Dobbs’ skillset.

In what world do we ever just say, yeah, coach knows best? Football wouldn’t be as fun if we couldn’t question these people to high heaven. After all, it’s not like they have the greatest track record. If we look at the quarterbacks who have been taken recently, well, it’s not hard to find some foolish mistakes. From picking Bryce Young over CJ Stroud to thinking Pickett was a franchise QB to giving Mac Jones the squad post-Tom Brady to believing a linebacker recruit from North Dakota could lead Kyle Shanahan’s offense, there are miscues all over the place.

Of course, there’s also the Chiefs’ obsession with Mahomes that paid dividends. The Bills picking Allen over Rosen. The Packers going with Jordan Love and sitting him for three years. Jalen Hurts, second rounder to Super Bowl. Joe Cool Burrow. Hm.

Here’s what we know: No matter what stat you use or historical comparison, there is always going to be a counter. If you think that Caleb Williams reminds you have Mahomes, he could also remind you of Justin Fields when you see his numbers under pressure. If you think Penix Jr.’s lack of mobility is a problem, look at the CJ Stroud scouting reports that said he couldn’t make plays out of structure. Or watch Jared Goff pick people apart from the pocket within the right offense. If you think Maye is too crazy with the football, might I introduce you to Matthew Stafford. If McCarthy’s stats aren’t good enough for you, well, Mac Jones had wonderful stats.

O’Connell hasn’t exactly dropped many hints about where we should be looking either. I’d be surprised if anyone in the organization truly knew what he was thinking right now. The only nugget he would drop at our doorstep at the owner’s meetings was this:

“Our passing game, it thrives off of accuracy, rhythm, timing, some of the traits that show up on these guys' tapes gets you really excited about that, but it's also about toughness, football intelligence, the leadership traits that I'm looking for.”

Vague much?

Look, O’Connell can get it wrong just like the rest of us but this is what he was hired to do. If we are playing the odds game, his expertise gives the Vikings the best shot of grabbing the right quarterback. During the month of April, KOC is spending his days meeting with these prospects, watching film, taking them out to toss around the pigskin. He’s getting a simulation of what it might be like to work with them on a daily basis. Ultimately, the relationship between future QB1 and O’Connell is what’s going to determine the success of this operation. Can the quarterback throw the ball where O’Connell has placed Justin Jefferson?

And then when fourth-and-8 comes along, he’ll need to do something on his own, if he has the skill and instincts. But I digress.

There is exception to the idea of leaving it all in O’Connell’s hands because Adofo-Mensah has to get the head coach his QB since the Vikings won three games with Josh Dobbs at quarterback. What if five quarterbacks go off the board and the Vikings are left picking up whatever is left? Or if they somehow end up with no quarterback at all? What if they trade our expected price for Maye only to land McCarthy? There are no guarantees at all that they get their guy.

By the way, wouldn’t it be the most Vikings thing if Sam Darnold won 13 games and never gave the job to the draft pick?

It’s a fascinating draft season and the next several weeks leading up to draft night are going to be entertaining as all get out. Once it happens, we’ll have all the answers to our questions about how the Vikings and the rest of the NFL really feels about these quarterbacks. Until then I have no plans to stop digging for every last stat and watching back the time Drake Maye tried to hurdle a Duke defender and got hit in the…inner legs… but when draft day comes along and the Vikings make their decision, we can only assume that the due diligence is better than what we can muster with YouTube and a PFF account.

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