Ranking all the Vikings outcomes at QB
Reports still connect to the Vikings to a trade up -- is that the best approach at QB?
By Matthew Coller
When the Minnesota Vikings swung a trade with the Houston Texans to give up a 2025 second-round pick to acquire the 23rd pick in this year’s draft everybody was thinking the same thing: They are going to trade up to the top of the draft to get a quarterback.
Nine days later, it hasn’t happened yet. Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported that the Vikings were given a “polite no” by the top three teams (Chicago, Washington, New England). The Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 overall have made it no secret that they are open to moving out of their pick. General manager Monti Ossenfort even joked that they had a neon sign saying “open.”
The Vikings have the draft capital to make an offer that the Cardinals can’t refuse. But they aren’t the only ones who can get Ossenfort’s attention. Using the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, the Vikings’ two first-round picks add up to about the same as the New York Giants’ first and second-round selections (No. 6 and 47). Arizona might be waiting for somebody to blink and throw in a 2025 first-round pick in order to guarantee themselves.
There are other scenarios for the Vikings to still land a quarterback if they aren’t willing to tack on more draft capital to get to No. 4, including the possibility that Arizona stays at No. 4 and takes a wide receiver. That would allow the Vikings trade up to No. 5 with the Los Angeles Chargers to get their QB1.
They could also stick at No. 11 and No. 23 and try to land their quarterback and a difference maker at another position.
Of all the possible outcomes, which is the best? Well, let’s rank them….
1. Trade up to the top three no matter the cost
Does this seem a little reckless considering some parts of the Vikings’ roster are still under construction? Yes. But the only position that can’t be replaced by development and free agent dollars is quarterback. Getting into the top three picks would guarantee that Kevin O’Connell gets one of the elite prospects in the draft — and if the Vikings are willing to go wild with an offer that New England will accept then it means O’Connell is 100% on board with that QB.
While it would still be a good result if the Vikings found a decent QB prospect who was capable of having success on his rookie contract, the golden ticket in the NFL is getting the franchise QB who gives you a chance to compete for the Super Bowl every year. This year’s draft features three QBs who have ceilings similar to the Josh Allens and Joe Burrows of the NFL that elevate their team and cover up for weaknesses. Landing one of them would give the Vikings something they haven’t had in a next-level athlete that they haven’t seen since Daunte Culpepper.
Yes, if it goes bust then the ship may sink. What outcome in the draft doesn’t have a potential downside though? So swing big.
2. JJ McCarthy at No. 4 or 5 without giving up a 2025 first-round pick
It would make complete sense for the Cardinals and Chargers to have three first-rounders on their mind considering the quality of wide receivers expected to be available at No. 4 and 5 and the desperation of the teams below them. However, it would be a big win for the Vikings if they could somehow put together an acceptable package for either club without having to part ways with their 2025 first-round pick. In that case, in total including the trade with the Texans, they essentially would have only essentially moved the No. 11 pick, 2024 second-rounder and 2025-second rounder to land a quarterback. It’s hard to do much better than that from their position.
McCarthy may not be on the same level in terms of production or physical prowess as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels but the Vikings can surround him with enough talent to be competitive fairly quickly and have a chance to seriously compete in the near future.
3. Byron Murphy II at 11 and Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. at 23
Top-notch defensive tackles are incredibly difficult to come by. Analytics analyst Arjun Menon pointed out on Twitter that 12 of the 14 highest paid defensive tackles are first-round picks. The Vikings have been filling space in the middle of the D-line for years with players like Shamar Stephen, Armon Watts, Khyiris Tonga, Jonathan Bullard and Harrison Phillips and they most recently signed two situational players in Jerry Tillery and Jonah Williams.
Murphy II was a force at Texas. He produced a 91.1 PFF pass rushing grade and registered 45 pressures in 273 pass rush snaps. There is nothing quite as disruptive as a pass rushing DT and nobody knows this better than the Vikings playing against the likes of Kenny Clark and Akiem Hicks in recent years.
Getting a disrupter of that caliber along with a QB in the first round is ideal if O’Connell is all in on that player. Nix seems to be a darling of former quarterbacks because he gets rid of the ball on time and Penix Jr. has a monster arm. The issue with this particular plan is the possibility of somebody else picking them. The Broncos at No. 12 and Raiders at No. 13 both may want quarterbacks, which could make for a very nervous run of picks between 11 and 23.
If this was the result, it wouldn’t quite on the same level of upside as Maye or McCarthy because Nix doesn’t have arm talent that matches up and Penix Jr. isn’t considered a playmaker out of structure but both have considerable tools that O’Connell and his band of weapons could maximize. Then it would be a matter of spending cap space to build a 49ers-esque roster around them.
4. Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. at 11 and Johnny Newton or Kool-Aid McKinstry at 23
Taking Nix or Penix Jr. at 11 seems rich but overspending for a quarterback is always defensible. The Vikings would be sacrificing their shot at the top four QBs and they wouldn’t get their hands on one of the elite defensive line prospects but this is a draft with a number of high quality defensive players expected to be available later in the first round especially because of the volume of offensive players likely to be taken at the top.
5. JJ McCarthy at No. 4 in exchange for No. 11, 23 and 2025 first-round pick
If McCarthy is the apple of O’Connell’s eye then there is no price too high. After losing a quarterback that he built a deep rapport with in Kirk Cousins, it wouldn’t be ideal to saddle the head coach with anyone that he wasn’t 100% sold on. But giving up the house for a QB who did not post the same type of numbers as his colleagues in the draft comes with extreme risk. If McCarthy doesn’t become who they project him to be, there won’t be much wiggle room to keep building the team, even if they have all that cap space.
If the upside is a quarterback like Alex Smith, is that going to be enough to justify the three firsts? The answer could very well be yes because the Vikings already have star players on offense. That’s usually the hardest part when a team gives up the house for one player.
The bottom line
Every outcome has its potential pitfalls but any path that results in the Vikings drafting a quarterback gives them an opportunity to put together a contending team over that player’s rookie contract. Had they not set themselves up well with the salary cap or were lacking receiving options then giving up draft picks might be much more daunting than it will be in the Vikings’ situation.
"Had they not set themselves up well with the salary cap" are we talking about the Minnesota Vikings? That club has very much *not* set itself up well with the salary cap. In addition to the dead money and copious use of void years, the longer it takes to extend JJ, the higher that price is going to be. The roster has been retooled with younger players, but the cap management has been poor.
This year there is a consensus top 3 and then a gap--that was also the case in '99, and the best QB in that class was taken at 11 (though as ever, the coach/roster matter too). It wouldn't make sense to saddle KOC with someone he doesn't like, but it's also a leap to assume that KOC (or anyone) can correctly rank the prospects, and thus get ROI for using 4 or 5 top 60 picks to get that player.
“1. Trade up to the top three no matter the cost…” This sends a shiver through my bones and not because of our current weather in Princeton! We old timers still remember a trade abomination which brought us Hershel Walker and sent the Cowgirls to multiple Super Bowls… I’d shy away from that option.