Putting recent successful rookie QB seasons under the microscope
A deep dive at how (fairly) recent rookies succeeded and what it means to the Vikings
By Matthew Coller
Even in a football world of overreactions, it isn’t possible to evaluate whether JJ McCarthy is going to be the Minnesota Vikings’ starting quarterback Week 1 after witnessing one rookie minicamp practice. However, the team’s focus on giving McCarthy every opportunity to succeed does draw comparisons to previous QBs who were tossed into the fire as rookies and had success.
So let’s take a closer look inside the numbers of some quarterbacks in recent history who had successful rookie seasons and see where the similarities and differences could lie with the Vikings’ approach to McCarthy…
Dak Prescott
2016: 13-3. 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, four interceptions, 104.9 rating
The Cowboys’ star quarterback has the highest rating produced by any rookie since 2010 in their first season. Two glaring elements of the ‘16 Cowboys that bolstered his chances for success were Dallas’s running game and offensive line. On a team that was lacking in special playmakers (Cole Beasley led the team in receptions), Zeke Elliott was an unstoppable force. Elliott ran 321 times for 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns in an Emmitt Smith-like season. He did so behind an O-line that had four starters grade over 80.0 by PFF. Left tackle Tyron Smith gave up just 20 QB pressures all year.
As a result of the tremendous rushing attack, the Cowboys finished the season 30th in passing attempts. When Prescott did throw, the easy-button plays were highly efficient. When using play-action, he gained 10.0 yards per attempt and he gained 9.0 yards per pass on screens. To put in context how much those things helped the young Prescott, he gained 1,431 yards from play-actions and screens and registered a grand total of two big-time throws on those types of passes.
In general the quick game crushed for the Cowboys that year. Over 62% of Prescott’s passes were under nine yards and he gained 1,976 yards on short throws at a strong 7.1 YPA rate.
That doesn’t mean it was all design that helped him become a Pro Bowler. Prescott had the answers to the test in Year 1. He was blitzed 37% of the time and posted a 102.5 QB rating when opponents sent extra rushers. His high IQ has continued to be a major part of his success as he’s progressed over the years.
How does this apply to the Vikings?
We can’t expect Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler to replicate one of the best running back seasons in the last decade but they can offer a big improvement over the last two years in the backfield. Across the NFL quarterbacks had a 98.1 QB rating on second or third down with fewer than five yards to go. Kirk Cousins was at 107.4 and that was only 12th in the league.
The Vikings’ O-line has questions. Who’s playing left guard? Will right guard Ed Ingram take another step forward? Last year they pass protected well overall with Dalton Risner in the mix. Will he make a return appearance after testing the market?
The biggest thing the Cowboys were able to do in 2016, in part because they had a top-five defense, was keep Prescott from having to carry the offense. He only cleared 30 passes on three occasions and only threw 20-plus yards in the air on 9% of throws.
Would O’Connell dial back his offense like that? It doesn’t seem likely, particularly with much better receivers than Prescott had in 2016. But there are some elements of the Cowboys’ success especially on play-action and screens that could give McCarthy an easier track.
Robert Griffin III
2012: 9-6, 3,200 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, 102.4 rating
RGIII and McCarthy do not have a lot in common as far as playing style goes. The former Washington QB was prolific as a runner and threw deep balls like nobody’s business. He raced to 815 yards on the ground and posted a 119.5 when tossing the pigskin over 10 yards during his rookie season.
He did have a similarity to Prescott’s 2016 campaign though: Play-action. Washington dialed up play fakes on 40% of his drop-backs and he put up a 116.2 rating and gained more total yards with play-action than without.
Griffin was blessed with a receiving duo that made his life easier when pushing the ball their way. Santana Moss and Pierre Garcon both averaged more than 14 yards per reception in 2012.
How does this apply to the Vikings?
Low volume (Washington ranked 30th in passes) and high play-action success applies here but the Vikings can’t ask McCarthy to either run a bootleg or scramble for 50 yards.
RG3 had a relatively low success rate (45.6%) but lots of explosive plays with 12.4 yards per completion. That’s just not likely to be an offensive style O’Connell is chasing.
CJ Stroud
2023: 9-6, 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, 100.8 rating
More roots in the Shanahan tree here. Stroud’s offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik came from San Francisco and had similar downfield success on play-actions with Stroud gaining a ridiculous 11.0 yards per pass with a play fake. That was tied for No. 1 in the NFL with another Shanahan in San Francisco.
Houston didn’t run the play-action nearly as much (25%) as Washington back in the day with RG3 but they did play to a similar strength of downfield passing. Stroud was unstoppable when going deep, completing 56% of throws over 20 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions (140.5 rating).
The man on the other side of many of those deep balls was Nico Collins, who gained 1,297 yards on 80 catches. Those are Andre Johnson numbers.
How does this apply to the Vikings?
McCarthy isn’t as refined a passer as Stroud coming into the NFL but the keys here are working to the areas of the field where he’s best. Stroud dominated the center and right side of the field when throwing over 10 yards but threw much less deep to the left side.
He also built an instant connection with his No. 1 receiver on the types of passes where Collins thrived. That will need to apply to Justin Jefferson.
Of course, Jefferson is great everywhere. Here are his PFF grades by depth of target:
That would indicate that Jefferson should be put in positions where McCarthy is most comfortable throwing the ball. If that’s 15 yards outside to his right, get Jefferson there and he will catch it. Simple game, right?
Interestingly, volume was not a concern for the Texans. They let Stroud cook right from the start. He finished 10 of his 15 games with 30-plus passes.
The Texans didn’t dial it back after a rough stretch. After a hot start, Stroud had a three-game run where he lost twice (including once to the Panthers) and didn’t clear a 90 QB rating. In the next game after the Carolina loss he threw five touchdowns. Sometimes you have to ride the rookie’s wave.
Justin Herbert
2020: 6-9, 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 98.3 rating
The Chargers attempted to take things slow with Herbert but a bizarre injury to Tyrod Taylor opened the door for him to start right away. It turned out that kid gloves were not required as Herbert jumped right into the fray and averaged over 300 yards per game in his first three starts.
The Chargers did nothing that is perceptible on paper to protect their monster-armed quarterback. Herbert ranked 19th in time from snap to throw, so they weren’t getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He ranked 20th in play-action percentage, so they weren’t keeping him out of harm’s way with a bunch of bootlegs.
Part of the reason Herbert could fire away was because he had route-running wizard Keenan Allen. Similarly to Stroud and the Texans, the Chargers got that connection rolling by playing to each player’s strengths. This time it was in Allen’s short and intermediate ability. He caught 100 passes at 9.9 yards per attempt. Out of 147 targets, 57% came between 0-9 yards but Allen graded 95.1 (out of 100) by PFF on those plays.
Los Angeles also severely lacked a running game so they were forced to lean on their quarterback. But Herbert did a good job of rewarding them with only a handful of miscues. There were 21 QBs with more turnover-worthy plays in 2020 and he only took sacks on 5.1% of drop-backs, ranking eighth best in pressure-to-sack ratio. Herbert scrambled the ninth most in the league as a rookie.
How does this apply to the Vikings?
Sometimes throwing a quarterback into the deep end — particularly with a safety blanket No. 1 receiver — can work just fine. There is evidence that teams have succeeded by sitting their rookies or protecting them from throwing too many passes or throwing too many passes out of pure drop-back situations but Herbert shows that a quarterback might not be damaged if he gets an opportunity to run the show.
That is, of course, if he understands how to balance risk vs. reward. McCarthy was a “game manager” largely in college so he understands how to protect the football but he does have a playmaker’s mentality that led to some turnover-worthy plays at Michigan. The Vikings would need to be comfortable with the whoa vs. go ratio in order to trust fully in him to take on everything that Herbert did in Year 1.
The bottom line:
There is no one way to make sure that a rookie quarterback succeeds but it’s clear that having a strong play-action game is a cheat code, as is a top wide receiver that can be trusted over and over. The quarterback’s own ability to limit interceptions and sacks is a massive factor but if his team plays to the areas where he’s best at throwing the football then it may reduce the number of mistakes that happen.
Does this mean McCarthy should play right away and O’Connell should figure out how to best use all the tools at his disposal? Well, that will need to be decided as we go along this summer but the Vikings shouldn’t be terrified of putting him in if they feel he’s ready because he would be far from the only first-time quarterback to succeed right away.
I am still so relieved to be over and done with the Cousins drama that I don't really care too much how long of the season it takes McCarthy to develop. I'm just happy we have a new quarterback. Fun comparisons.