Purple Insider Mailbag (Part 1)

Answering Vikings fans questions about how the season got to this point

---

By Matthew Coller

Hello, everyone. Normally we do the mailbag on Friday but with the Vikings playing on Thursday night and so many questions to be answered, I figured I’d answer your questions today. And since there was so many submissions, I’ll be doing Part 1 and Part 2.

Alright here we go…

Never Played Madden… Thanks for the coverage Matthew. I really thought the hype was justified and that the only big question would be McCarthy. This is not a roster that can play from behind.

I thought it was going to work, too. Everything seemed to add up. We have seen plenty of teams have success by spending around the rookie QB contract, so the bigger picture tracked along with recent history. But it wasn’t just that. It also looked like they had addressed some problems that this franchise has had for a long time. Interior blocking. Interior pressure. Physical running back. They appeared to have addressed all the things that got them in the playoffs against the Rams. Yet they have the 18th best offense and 18th best defense.

I also thought that the game script was a major reason for their failure on defense but the Eagles and Chargers games revealed that it’s much more than that. It’s a series of bets that didn’t pay off. The expensive DTs are the two lowest graded players on the entire unit outside of Ivan Pace. Failing that hard on your big acquisitions at such an important position is going to have a trickle down.

But playing with a backup QB and backup offensive linemen is not a recipe for success.

Crazy stat: The Vikings defense is 9th in points allowed per drive and 7th in yards allowed per drive. The offense is 29th in plays per drive and 28th in time of possession per drive. The defense has been in totally unfavorable positions all year. If they had a competent offense that could keep the opposing team off the field, it would put a lot more pressure on them to play aggressively and possibly walk into blitzes and coverage deception.

At the end of the day, we all envisioned a JJ McCarthy-led team that was going to have its ups and downs but was driven by a stout O-line and elite defense. On paper, it was there. In reality, we’ve never seen the team on the field that they built.

Brett K… Why don’t media members ask O’Connell more directly about his unwillingness to run the ball on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1? It’s been his MO his entire time here, and it’s bizarre.

Well, it made sense when they were struggling to run the ball. With Mattison and Jones over the last two years, their success in those short-yardage situations was so horrific that it was hard to argue with passing.

Why haven’t we asked this year? Well, if you were interviewing somebody about the Titanic, would you ask why they didn’t use the right color deck chairs? There have been a million things that have to be addressed. The QB situation, the injuries, the struggles on both sides of the ball… it hasn’t been top of mind. Is it something that will eventually come up? Probably.

Brian_H… When I think about KOC’s passing scheme, it reminds me of the complex, deep passing schemes run by coaches such as Joe Gibbs and Norv Turner. The primary difference is that those two coaches paired that desire to get open deep with a power running game and a commitment to running the ball. I’m not even sure I have a real question other than “WTF, KOC???”

The thing about KOC’s scheme is: If you can block it up, it works. Or if the quarterback is willing to stand in the pocket and get destroyed like Kirk Cousins did in 2022 or Sam Darnold did last year. If the quarterback can run the pre-snap stuff, get people lined up correctly and then go through the right reads and find the right place to throw the ball and then throw with anticipation trust that the receiver is going to arrive at the right time, it works.

When the Rams won the Super Bowl, Matthew Stafford’s offensive line ranked No. 1 in pass blocking. When Kirk Cousins played his best football in early 2023, the Vikings’ pass blocking ranked pretty high. When Sam Darnold was at his best, either the O-line was playing pretty well early on with Darrisaw in or he was making crazy plays and ranking at the time of the league in time to throw.

Under the right circumstances, it’s a masterful scheme. Under the wrong circumstances, it turns into death for the QB.

The numbers speak for themselves: The Vikings have been sacked the 7th most times of any team in the NFL since 2022. The teams ahead of them have all had atrocious QBs and fired coaches i.e. Giants, Titans, Bears, Commanders, Jets, Browns.

If the O-line gets healthy, then JJ McCarthy should have dudes open and time to find them. If the O-line remains banged up, he’s going to get killed like every other QB in this system.

I’m not sure that it can continue to be that way as short passing games are having success because pass rushes have gotten so difficult to stop.

GM…. With the trade deadline coming and after last night’s performance, I would be on board with being sellers. That could change if we upset the Lions but I see no reason to believe that would happen (other than this is the Vikings).

What are your thoughts on being sellers and if so, who are our tradable assets?

Sure, being sellers is fine. Who’s tradable? Jalen Nailor. I’m struggling to think of anyone else considering most of these players’ contracts are for multiple years and are expensive.

Jungho… Why is it that we are so cautious with JJ and his development? I understand he’s still very young (youngest in the league I believe?) and has some clear flaws that can be improved. I also understand he’s been hurt and they are taking a careful approach to keep him upright and make sure he’s not hurt. I also understand the sitting and learning behind veteran QB thing too. So I get it all, however, I can’t help think if we’re just being a bit too cautious with JJ.

Why aren’t they putting in an inexperienced quarterback with zero practice on a Thursday night coming off an ankle injury with two backup tackles?

Have you seen how much Carson Wentz has gotten destroyed the last two weeks? Do you think it would be good for JJ to play under those circumstances when he’s already injured?

There’s no point where it would have made sense to play him with the ankle less than 100%, no matter what your favorite fraudulent internet doctor says.

Now that he has a full week of practice and a healthy ankle, it’s time.

Bill… Do you think Flores has no faith in his guys? Too overconfident his scheme will get home? He doesn’t seem like the overly stubborn type and has shown he can be malleable.

It’s a lot of things all at once. A lot of the players that they bought into have not performed like they needed. That begins with Hargrave and Allen but it’s also Isaiah Rodgers, Theo Jackson and Jeff Okudah. Not having Harrison Smith fully healthy and playing like himself hurts. Not having Flores’ favorite dynamic piece Andrew Van Ginkel is killer. Dallas Turner being just OK is not a replacement for AVG’s excellence.

I’ve also had the thought that some elements of the deception have been solved. That’s how the league works, right? We have gotten to the point that it can’t be a coincidence that the last bunch of games versus good QBs have resulted in total demolition. It’s not fooling the Goff/Stafford/Rodgers/Hurts/Herbert types. And that could be part of the reason that everyone is playing worse because it’s hard to believe that almost everyone regressed this badly at once.

Bradley P… What in the h e double hockey sticks happened to Flores? Hes always been a bit of a paper tiger because great QBs eat him alive but this year is awful. Remove the Bengals game and his defense is bottom five. None of the free agents he wanted are working well. Pace has regressed. Greenard forgot how to wrap up a QB. The young players aren’t developing. What the…

It’s not too different from what happened in Miami. They ate everyone’s lunch on defense in 2020 but in 2021 the Dolphins dropped from 6th to 16th in points allowed. It was the same type of deal where the offense didn’t play well, then the defense couldn’t have the same dominance.

Here’s an alternate theory: Last year the Vikings were 5th in sacks and 1st in INTs. If you rely on splash stuff, you’ll swing and miss a lot. Just like basketball teams that shoot 3-pointers all the time or baseball teams who hit home runs, only thriving when you get sacks and INTs is a tough world to live in year after year.

Defense is fragile overall. The Bengals D coordinator Lou Amarillo was a genius, then got fired, and now is a genius with Indy. That’s happened many times throughout history. Mike Zimmer was a genius when all of his players were in their primes and then an idiot when the roster fell apart.

Rzuppelli… Little early for this one, so maybe answer next week. What say the tape nerds about the offensive scheme? Are guys open and throws just not happening for “reasons”? Are defenses covering the staple concepts too well? Basically what the offensive struggle pie chart between scheme/execution?

Yeah, the receivers are there. It’s 40% playing a backup QB, 40% not being able to block for the QB and 20% everything else — i.e. not being able to run, trying to play from behind because the defense is bad and on and on. People would prefer to think that the coach is just completely botching everything with play calling because that’s easier than accepting the most obvious answer.

The last time Carson Wentz played, he was benched for Taylor Heinicke. Let’s just all remember that.

Bradley P… Are all the injuries bad luck, rushing players back too quick (CD, O’Neil) or something else?

Injuries are bad luck, yes. The Darrisaw case seems to be its own mystery. He told myself and Andrew Krammer after the Bengals game that he rushed back ahead of his original timeline. He may have pushed that. Or it may have been a schedule issue. Going over seas and then immediately getting a Thursday night game a few weeks later is pretty tough sledding for someone trying to come back from a catastrophic injury. O’Neill has always been a warrior but he may have pushed it one week too fast to try to get them back in the race.

Billy J… Since the team is staring down a 6-8 win season, who are you excited to see develop aside from JJ McCarthy?

That’s the tough part about this team: I can’t think of too many. We need a bigger sample on Dallas Turner. Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez have been good. Maybe we see Tai Felton if they trade Jalen Nailor? Maybe they need to play Jay Ward.

This wasn’t supposed to be a “excited to see them develop” team.

Axel…. Hi Matthew, how have you been ? Do you think that KOC is galaxy braining some calls, like the 3rd and 1 in the first drive ? Sometimes it really feels it should be more simple…

Yes, I do think that. It’s unbelievable how hard they make third-and-short.

Per Pro-Football Ref: The only teams worse than the Vikings since 2022 on third or fourth down and less than 3 yards to go are the Jets, Patriots, Dolphins and Raiders.

At some point, it feels like the strengths are the strengths and the weaknesses are the weaknesses. It’s becoming unconvincing that they can fix them.

Injuries are a factor.

Bailey… Maybe it’s too early to be looking far ahead, but what is the best, worst and most realistic scenarios for this team for the rest of the season?

The best-case scenario is that they go 9-8 and JJ McCarthy plays really well down the stretch. The most realistic scenario is 7-10 and McCarthy has hits ups and downs and they’re still asking whether he can really be the guy in 2026. That’s actually the worst-case scenario too.

If McCarthy is horrendous and they finish 5-12, that’s not too bad because you get a top draft pick and you have an answer on No. 9 and can dump everyone who hasn’t been performing and try again.

therougemeister… I have never been more disappointed in KOC. He’s a good coach, I know. But him leaving Wentz in this long is an absolutely inexcusable. I’m not a Wentz apologist, but he’s clearly playing injured.

I also felt that way. Just because he can play without further harming himself doesn’t mean it’s OK to let him legitimately suffer out there. I get not wanting to put Max Brosmer in there but you can just wave the white flag, throw to the RBs and hand off and pack it in. It reminded me of a hockey coach leaving a goalie in the game when it’s 7-0.

Jesse… Do you see why we are skeptical and scarred? It’s sad we as fans are like this but it’s the way it is. It’s sad all around

I have never doubted the reasoning behind Vikings fans being skeptical about the best laid plans actually working.

The logic was there, just like it was in 2018. Ups and downs based on the luck factor are basically just life in the NFL when you don’t have a good quarterback.

David… Do you play JJ next week if both T’s are hurt.. I say NO!

The tackles are expected to be back. If they’re not, it would be very worrisome but it’s time to get McCarthy back in there. He can’t be put in a bubble. They believed in him as QB1, so it’s time to roll with that no matter what.

Tony F…We’re coming to US Bank Stadium for the first time for the November 9 game! Where is the best place to tailgate and how can we hang out with you?

Well, I’ve never actually tailgated before myself, so it’s hard to say but everywhere around the stadium downtown is parking lots and fans hanging out. I’m sure you won’t have a problem finding someplace. It’s pretty easy to get around.

Shoot me an email matthew coller AT gmail when you guys are in town and I’ll see if we can say hello.

Andrew K… Appreciated your rant after last night’s game. Part of me still thinks we were hit with a perfect storm - with a backup qb, 3-4 2nd & 3rd stringers in oline, and a variety of defensive injuries, no matter what the off-season talent decisions and play-calling, we would have ended up where we are. Eg, Most backup qbs aren’t Brady. So - am I just holding onto that insane optimism that has allowed me to be a Vikes fan for 50+ years, or do you really think that different free agent and coaching decisions really could have gotten us to still being in contention now (given the boatload of injuries unlike last year).

For the offensive side of the ball, I would tend to agree that it was just the worst possible luck. No Justin Jefferson in camp, no Jordan Addison for the first three games, Kelly out, and we’ve only seen Darrisaw and Jackson play together for a handful of snaps. Plus, Wentz had been 29-35-1 as a starter since 2017 with an 89.6 QB rating. At 33 and with a ton of miles on the body, it wasn’t likely that it was going to go anywhere. They just needed to get to 3-2 while he was in. The fact that they couldn’t do it really puts them behind.

But the thing that’s hard to get over is the defensive side. This defense was supposed to give them a chance in games where they couldn’t really score and that hasn’t happened outside of Cleveland.

Brad L… Part of our issue, revealed by injuries, is perhaps a lack of depth. How much is due to a lack of luck/success in the draft? It seems to me that’s where you find “cheap” talent. Or are my assumptions off?

Clearly the shortage of draft hits has hurt them but there are certain areas where nobody in the NFL has depth. Find me a team with a backup QB that can beat star QBs head to head. Find me any team with two good backup offensive tackles. Find me a team that can replace an elite center. Find me a team that has backup Andrew Van Ginkels.

Cheap really shouldn’t matter in this equation because of the rookie QB contract. They had the ability to overspend in free agency to build up depth. They tried to do that with Justin Skule, who had been solid with TB. They tried to do that with Eric Wilson. They tried to do that with Jeff Okudah. They tried to do that with Jordan Mason. They tried to do that with signing two DTs instead of one.

Sometimes things just don’t work.

The part of the drafting that gets left out is that this team has selected eight top-100 players since 2022. The Lions have picked 15. The Packers have picked 16.

Trading away a ton of draft capital and never being sellers and rarely getting comp picks because of big free agent signings adds up.

Patrick G… What the fork, Matt?! What the Fork? I am really struggling to understand. Even with an avalanche of injuries, past Vikings teams, or teams like the 49ers, the chargers, etc are at least competitive even if they lose. Other than the Cincinnati game, Q4 of Chicago, Q4 of the Steelers, and Q4 of the browns game, this team has been like ball state vs. Ohio State. The team isn’t THAT different than last year, roster wise. I mean even the 5-10-1 2013 team was in just about every game, and would have won the division if games were 58 minutes long

The Chargers’ competitiveness got a lot more impressive when they got Joe Alt back. The previous three weeks they had pretty much been a disaster. They also have this guy named Justin Herbert. That’s a pretty big deal.

Surprisingly, the team is way different than last year. They made a ton of moves in the offseason. Across the board: Different quarterback, two guards, center, running back, defensive tackles, outside linebacker (since AVG hasn’t played), two corners, safety.

Add it up, that’s 11 players than last year. None more important than QB1.

Through the first seven games of 2024, Sam Darnold had a 107.2 QB rating with 14 TDs 5 INT and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt. This year Vikings QBs have 9 TD 8 INT and an 84.1 QB rating. That’s basically on par with Nick Mullens’ career rating.

We can talk and talk and talk about all the details of the defense and everything else but when you get the 7th worst QB play in the NFL by QB rating, you’re not winning anything.

Ford42-P…. The defensive looks bad, the new acquisitions don’t work out etc. Allen, Hargreave are way worse than Phillips and Bullard against the run and aren’t great rushers anymore, Turner doesn’t live up to his draft status and AVG is the defensive MVP of this team. Is it that way? Or did other teams crack Flores’ code? Everybody seems to throw over The middle and they can’t stop anything in that area. Looks like they are getting outcoached on the defensive side a lot. How do you see it? Which combination of reasons is it?

That’s the thing that I keep thinking about. Did everyone get this much worse at once? Or did they have the exact right players last year and changing a bunch of guys out really hurt them? Or did they just not play very many good QBs last year?

Well, CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy played way worse in 2024 than expected. Jordan Love was hurt the first time they played him. The Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks all had bad QBs last year.

Matthew Stafford smoked them. Jared Goff smoked them.

Defensive quality is often rooted in the schedule. It seems to me that it’s a bunch of factors.

Pete B… I remember you mentioning during a chat over the summer that the Wilfs expect to be in the playoffs and compete for championships on a yearly basis. That does not seem to be in the cards for this year’s team. I know organizations can’t predict injuries, but when you’re expecting older players with significant injury histories to play key roles, and filling out the roster with unproven, undrafted players, it really shouldn’t be a surprise when it blows up in your face. It seems to me that the front office might have outsmarted themselves trying to identify players who provide surplus value compared to their compensation, and few of those bets have paid off. That being said, if the wheels fully come off this thing, what does accountability look like from the owners’ perspective?