Pre-draft Mailbag
Vikings fans ask questions about what's going to happen to the Vikings with the 12th overall pick
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By Matthew Coller
Alright folks, happy draft day. Let’s dive right into everyone’s questions…
@bigrose9 How high should Kwesi trade up if Sauce is on the board. Sounds like Stingley will go to Texans. If Sauce is gone pretty early what about Kyle H?
As much as I think Sauce Gardner is a good prospect, it’s probably not a good idea to be trading up for anybody in this draft. The Vikings have three picks out of the first 155 selections heading into the draft. I’m not sure where they would even get draft capital to move up without either giving up No. 77 or dipping into next year, which seems like a bad plan. Every time I run a simulation, either Jameson Williams, Derek Stingley Jr. or Kyle Hamilton ends up being available. It seems with the abundance of top tackles
@WarleyOwl Who should the Vikings want our divisions rivals to draft (or not draft)
The Packers have four out of the first 60 picks. That should be a little concerning to the Vikings because they might even be able to get two very good receiver prospects, should they actually decide that’s an important position and they could fill the pass rusher and offensive line needs they have too. Vikings fans should not want them to land George Pickens or Skyy Moore. I think Pickens is the second most talented receiver in the class, it’s just that he had injury and possibly some character issues. Moore is one of those slot receivers who is great with the ball in his hands. No Viking fan wants easy throws for Aaron Rodgers. You should be rooting against the Lions picking Malik Willis. I have no idea if he turns out to be a good QB — there’s a high bust probability with him — but the last thing you want is to have a high-ceiling QB in the division. The Bears need so many things that it really doesn’t matter what they do.
@roberttseaman Jameson Williams and Trent McDuffie are on the board at 12. Who do you take?
Easy pick: Williams. The thing that I learned this offseason, which made sense intuitively but I had never seen it put into numbers, was that based on surplus value (rookie contract vs. veteran pay) picking an average WR is worth quite a bit more than picking an average corner. And picking an elite receiver is worth more than picking an elite corner. So if you take McDuffie and he isn’t a game changer, well, you could have gotten the same thing in free agency for fairly cheap. But if you pick a WR and he’s just good and not great, it’s still worth a lot because it costs $10 million a year to get an average receiver in free agency. Also, Williams’s peak could be someone who makes the Vikings’ offense unstoppable. I’m not sure McDuffie being the absolute best version of himself significantly alters a defense. His size limits him a bit in that regard, unless he’s the next Antoine Winfield Sr.
@BaseballNorm if we see Kwesi in the draft follow similar draft style as trader Rick are we to assume he’s a puppet for the Wilf’s? If that’s the case why did we fire Rick again?
My question would be: What is a “similar style draft?” If they pick a corner in the first, offensive line in the second, pass rusher in the third and trade down a few times along the way, does that mean we’re going to call Kwesi “Rick Adofo-Spielman?” That seems pretty tough because those picks would make a lot of sense. Trading down also makes a lot of sense since they are so short on picks in the first four rounds. I’m not sure the Wilfs would be puppeting the draft anyway. Maybe they had/have certain ideas of what they think the team needs but I can’t envision a Jerry Jones type thing where he just makes the pick from his yacht. The reality is that we’ll want to come away from this with grand statements about Adofo-Mensah but unless he picks a quarterback, the differences might be subtle. Maybe it’s as small as the front office feeling like they had a say in the pick or the team having a consensus rather than one guy calling the shots at the end.
@kevingustafson Can they stay at 12 and still get Jameson?
It’s really 50-50 at this point. I checked what Vegas thinks and they have his draft prop at 11.5. He is the one receiver in this class that has a chance to be special, so maybe you could talk me into trading up to No. 10 or something to get him but there’s teams farther in front of the Vikings that have a great case to pick him so I’m not sure he makes it to 10. It will be one of the most compelling Vikings storylines of the draft — if he’s there, do they take a receiver even with other needs and his injury? I would think the answer is yes.
@NorthStarsNHL I’ve read about how KAM values picks as commodities and they used the 49’ers as an example with their weaker secondary but a strong D-Line. Does that predict they will go D-Line or WR over secondary defining premium positions?
The thing that’s different about secondary from receiver or D-line is that it takes five cornerbacks working together to make a great secondary. It’s similar to O-line in that way. Receiver and defensive end can have an impact on their one, whereas a really good corner’s impact can be mitigated by attacking the weaker CBs. There’s also the simple fact that the league is loaded with great quarterbacks and the only thing statistically that brings them all down is pressure. If the Vikings loaded up more on D-line, they’d be saying that they were going to win with pressure by the D-line, which was a (very correct) approach of Mike Zimmer’s top defenses as well. Edge rushers are also getting so much money that drafting one and having them replace Hunter at some point could be a pretty good salary cap play long term. That doesn’t mean corner isn’t important — if you have prime Xavier Rhodes he makes everyone better, it’s just that I can see the case for DL.
@CoreyHermanson Do you think it's possible to trade down 2-3 times in the 1st and target a 2nd tier CB? Or would logistics of finalizing all those trades or optics get in the way? Seems like if you miss out on Stingley/Hamilton/Williams, it would be wise to accumulate 2nd/3rds
Trading down multiple times might be tough but I do think it’s potentially in the cards to move down and end up with Andrew Booth Jr. from Clemson or see if the Trent McDuffie hype isn’t shared by the NFL because he has short arms (lol). I agree with your premise though. If it isn’t those three players, it makes more sense to trade back. Would we think they were nuts if they dropped back into the early 20s and took Jermaine Johnson? Or even top guard Zion Johnson wouldn’t be insane at that point. I’ve even thought about a totally-under-the-radar Nakobe Dean pick. So many things are on the table if they don’t pick at 12.
@MikeWelsch4 Regarding the Cousins extension this year, under the assumption that a team would only trade for him if he’d sign an extension then isn’t that a de factor no trade clause? Is the no trade the Vikes included really that meaningful? Tyreek, etc got to choose where they went w/o 1.
Yes and no. It’s meaningful because if he had a down year and suddenly the team really wanted out, he could tell them to go fly a kite. Also if they agreed to a deal to send him to Houston, he could tell them to jump in a lake if he doesn’t want to go play for Houston. That limits their trade options to only places that work for him. However, if the Vikings made it clear they wanted to move on, it’s plausible that he would prefer a franchise that wanted him (and could extend him). The no-trade just gives him all the cards.
headcoach21 What’s the craziest draft war room story you have heard of??
I mentioned this one on the podcast but.. the Bills’ owner forcing the GM to take Willis McGahee in the first round after he wrecked his knee was a crazy one. There was a story once about Don Shula picking a guy who had terrible vision and he found on right after the pick. There used to be a lot of phone call blunders — calling the wrong guy with the same name (Cleveland maybe did this?) and not being able to get guys on the phone to tell them they were picked. Bill Polian said one time that he thought about taking Dauber from the show Coach in the 12th round. And there’s the Johnny Manziel/Jimmy Haslem text. Crazy times.
@Ragnarskingdom I am seeing Jermaine Johnson all of a sudden mocked to the Vikings starting just TODAY like CRAZY... thoughts?
His draft stock has been super weird. At first he was a late-first/early-second guy, then he was talked about in the top 10 and now it feels like there’s been no buzz. I could see it for the Vikings but 12 still seems like a stretch to me. He had a ton of production only once in his senior year and he’s 23 years old. I’d be pretty surprised if the Vikings picked an older one-year wonder that high.
@johnfyman Matthew, give us a player or two you really wanted the Vikings to draft and they did not. What have said player(s) done since? And/or What player(2) the Vikings drafted were you wrong about? What didn’t you like about the pick(s) at the time of selection?
A few guys that I thought they should pick who did work out: Lamar Jackson, AJ Brown, Antoine Winfield Jr., Mac Jones, Orlando Brown and Deebo Samuel.
Guys that I thought they should pick who did not work out: Andre Dillard, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Will Hernandez, Connor Williams, Will Grier.
The player that I was most wrong about on draft day was Brian O’Neill. He weighed like 280 pounds and I thought they needed someone who could help the OL right away. He put on the weight and the guy turned out to be way tougher than even the team expected. I gave the Wyatt Davis pick an A+ last year because it seemed like great value compared to where the draft analysts expected him to go.
@DarrickMoren Based on value, it seems the pick at 12 should be either WR, CB or DE. ( as we don't need QB or OT) It seems that WR are the earlier impact players giving the higher "value" over the rookie deal, correct? Do we have room for another 3 down D lineman with who we already have? Decent CB's can be had on the cheap so it seems if the players are about equal then the pick would have to be WR or DE then right? ( Unless they feel the CB will be an above average starter which seems unlikely based on the top 2 or 3 being off the board when Vikes pick)
OK there’s a lot happening here, Darrick. I agree that WR is an earlier impact position. Yes, there’s room for another D-lineman, especially because Za’Darius Smith moves around a lot. Yes, decent corners can always be found in free agency but not special corners unless it’s for $20 million per year (that would apply to Stingley Jr.). The best value picks are receiver and pass rusher, yes. They are the two highest paid positions and you get at least four years of them being cheap and great players at those spots usually don’t take many years of development.
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Could you see the Vikings trading up to the end of the first round to take a QB? Given the nature of Kirk's contract, it feels like that extra year on the rookie deal would be a necessity rather than taking a QB in the second or third round
I think if there’s one scenario in which the Vikings walk out of the draft with a QB that has any chance to take over for Kirk Cousins someday, you picked the one — trading back into the late first or early second round to take a QB. By the third round, it’s probably not worth the pick.
@youvikethat1 First long snapper goes which round?
The seventh is pretty much the only long snapper round. Cal Adomitis from Pittsburgh and Antonio Ortiz of TCU are the two fellas most likely to be drafted. Adomitis ran a sub-5.0 40-yard dash so…maybe he’s a special teams threat.
@skiyouMeeko Who is the most likely prospect to drop and most likely to rise?
I have no idea what happened to the George Karlaftis hype but it feels like nobody is taking him toward the top in mock drafts anymore. Maybe he gets lost in the mix with some other pass rushers. It’s possible that the receiver I like most after Jameson Williams, which is Chris Olave, doesn’t get the same love from the league and falls out of the first round. George Pickens seems like a player who will rise because he has a high ceiling. Arnold Ebiketie of Penn State is a little undersized but he can play. I could see him being picked middle first rather than late-first/early-second like he’s projected.
@Ragnarskingdom You will believe Kwesi is actually just Rick with a costume on if he picks "insert player name here" at 12....
Only if he comes out and tells us that the player they pick was No. 1 on their board. Seriously though, it’s going to be hard for Adofo-Mensah to clearly differentiate himself with only a couple of picks that matter. Spielman was also the GM for so long, he did pretty much everything. How about 2013 when Rick got three firsts? How about this: If he picks a running back in the top three rounds. That’s something Kwesi should never do but Rick did all the time.
@sunstreaker79 Insert Spielman into the 12 round draft era. How many total picks & how many 12th rounders does he end up with?
In recent years Rick fell in love with the idea of spending a lot of money on UDFA guys. I don’t think any of them after Anthony Harris ever became anything (Thielen was a tryout guy). They could have given the $50K to an under-appreciated secretary instead. So the answer is a lot. Scouts love to prove that they can find the under-the-radar guy but there’s so many scouts out there and so much information that nobody really goes under the radar anymore.
@JTMNskol Free agent you want to see the Vikings pick up regardless of who is drafted
The obvious answer is JC Tretter but Jerry Hughes, Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy are still out there. If they’re going to load up the defense with veterans, load it all the way up. They signed Sheldon Richardson and Bashaud Breeland after the draft last year so many we’ll see something similar.
@BIG_dannn Between the teams with multiple first round picks who will give the Twitter world “how did they mess that up moment?”
Houston seems to be operating in some sort of alternate universe so I’ll say that they do something really goofy like pick a defensive tackle that everyone has in the third round as the 13th pick or they pick a guard when they need everything. But the Jets might have the funniest draft history of all NFL teams so we can’t underestimate them. The Lions are less likely. They have the dude who played a big role in building the Rams as their GM. He seems competent.
@spardisjx Pineapple on pizza, yes or no?
That’s a no from me, dog. But no judgement zone. Eat what makes you happy.
@andrewdbowers How far down still gets the @Vikings value if they trade back from 12? How far is too far?
If the Steelers or Saints want a quarterback, 19 or 20 makes a lot of sense. If not there’s another sweet spot with the Cowboys (24), Bills (25) and Titans (26). Those teams all want immediate contributors and might be willing to sacrifice future picks to get something to help them next year. The crazy thing is that the difference between 12 and 25 in this draft might not be insane (so long as Stingley Jr., Williams and Hamilton are off the board).
@JoeSchmo84 What’s your Vikings Big Board 1-12 so we know who you would take if they are at 12 who you would want them to take if they stay at 12 or move up?
The top 12 players the Vikings should be most interested in, in my humble non-Draft Scouty opinion are: Malik Willis, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Derek Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, Kyle Hamilton, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Ickey Ekwonu (as a guard?), Nakobe Dean, Trent McDuffie.
If they move up, it has to be because one of the top five players is still sitting there. They can’t do it for anything less than Thobodeaux, Hutchinson, Stingley Jr. or Williams. But looking at that list, someone will be there because the Vikings don’t need a tackle and guys like Evan Neal and Charles Cross are going to get taken.
@KyeBaxter If you were to pick one current player to be awarded the Barry Sanders "I make professional defenders look silly" award, who would it be?
It feels like those guys are route receivers these days, right? Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill. Derrick Henry does it in an IronHead Heyward kind of way. I’m not sure with the speed of defenses that there will ever be a running back who jukes people like Barry. The linebackers probably ran 4.9 40-yard dashes in the 90s.
@rk2022 Wonder what Daniel Faalele is projected to play in the NFL. At 6 ft 9 in. 379 pounds he could be a great center if his height doesn't get in his way. Centers aren't usually 6 ft 9.
Seems like tackle or bust but maybe he could play guard. There have been gigantic guards before. He was debated a lot at the Combine. Some people felt like he could be good, others thought there’s no chance.
Mike via email: If you were going to draft Adrian Pederson today, where would he go? Phenomenal runner, but can't block or catch? Second round, beginning of the third?
That’s a great question. Hm. I say he goes in the 18-25 range. Peterson was a 97th percentile athlete (per Relative Athletic Scores) and put together one of the most insane college highlight films of all time. We’re only a couple years removed from Fournette and Barkley going at the top and AP was every bit the prospect they were or better.
Jeff via email: I'm Vikings GM and I've decided to trade my 1ts round pick for A.J. Terrell. Talk me out of it...
Trading No. 12 for somebody else’s star player is possible I suppose but Atlanta isn’t in a position to be giving away young guys in positions of major need. Terrell can be good for a long time for them. Would they trade 12 for somebody else though? Possible.
@AndyOnTheAM More likely to trade up for Stingley or trade down?
Trade down. It seems like there’s a real possibility Stingley Jr. goes in the top seven.
@ChadPendy Is Jameson Williams simply a better route running Randy Moss (Admittedly 1.4 IPAs in while writing this question)
Sure! If there’s any wild comparison it’s Percy Harvin.
@tajinonseaweed Which highly mocked players may slide out of the 1st round entirely? And do you foresee more WR being used like Deebo/Waddle/CP84 Or is that just a limited trend?
It has run through my mind that Drake London’s lack of speed might make him fall. Tyler Linderbaum is another guy that I could see slipping. I’d be surprised if lots of other receivers start to become these spectacular playmakers. There’s a few every generation. Eric Metcalf was that guy back in the day, then Harvin, now Deebo. It takes some kind of special explosiveness and vision that few receivers have. That’s one of the reasons to like Williams so much.
@headcoach21 Which NFL poverty franchise you think has the best chance to turn it around??
The Jaguars. It’s all about which team has the best shot to receiver great quarterback play the fastest and that’s Jacksonville. With Doug Pederson in place, Trevor Lawrence has the best shot at taking a huge jump and becoming a star this year. If he doesn’t, maybe the Lions because it looks like they’ve got the bones of a good roster, they just need more players to start filling it out. Houston and both New York teams… woof.
@IamSuperB4 How far would the Vikings need to reasonably drop to get a 1st next year?
I’m not convinced they can get that. Usually a quarterback has to be involved. If the Saints or Steelers were moving from 20 to 12 to take Malik Willis, maybe.
@ErikJerold What’s the timeline on Jameson Williams’ recovery? Could he make a legitimate impact this season if he ends up in MN?
From the reporting, it looks like he might be able able to contribute by the middle of the season. Science is amazing these days, man.
@dmoney0919 I’ve seen a few big name mocks recently with no QBs going top 15. (Mike Renner, Bucky Brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, and Chris Trapasso to name a few). On the other hand, it appears the last draft w/o 3 QBs going top 15 was 2016. More likely to happen? 3 QBs go top 15 No QBs go top 15
I think two quarterbacks go in the top 15. It would be absurd for so many teams with no answer at QB to ignore the most valuable position. But it’s more likely that three go than zero.
Alex via email I really thought Kwesi was going to be the main decision maker when he got this job, and that he would use a blend of analytics and his decision-making background to find the best values in the draft and make aggressive, upside moves. However, now I’m concerned that this is some sort of “we put every idea in a box, and whatever is the consensus, we go with that.” I am really worried that what we see play out this weekend - and in the future - is high floor, safe draft picks and draft strategies that mitigate risk; but leave us without those true difference makers, be it at QB or the skill positions.
What are your thoughts on how this regime might attack the draft, or play it safe?
I think your concerns are warranted considering the way they have handled the offseason. Also, somebody has to be the one in command and go make things happen. Getting everyone’s opinion is great but I do think the paralysis by analysis thing is real and that making everyone happy in the building is impossible. I get the idea that most fans would rather see Kwesi pull out his spreadsheet and do the most aggressive thing the analytics can justify just to take a swing at making something really happen here, rather than plodding along. It’s hard to argue with that. If I had to guess, however, I’d say they play it safe.
@okie56201 What are your thoughts on Elam? Cornerback. Did not see in your draft guide. Just curious
It’s interesting. He was Mel Kiper’s first pick of draft season for the Vikings and then he slipped off the radar. He had pretty solid athletic scores and he’s only 21 years old. Maybe part of the concern is that he was one of the most penalized corners in the country last year and he might not be as smooth as the top corners. Maybe he’s a guy they trade down and end up taking.
@Ronzoniii could your WR pixie dust be rubbing off on some of these mock draft analysts? After barely seeing WR mocked to the Vikings, Mike Renner from PFF, Bucky Brooks, and Josh Norris all have Vikings taking WR at 12 in their final mocks
Did I speak it into existence? I guess we’ll see.
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