Pinpointing the US Bank Stadium effect
Pinpointing the US Bank Stadium effect
Home field advantage isn't what it used to be in the NFL -- but it's different in the Vikings' home stadium
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — Justin Jefferson’s first career touchdown came on a 75-yard play in which he dodged two Tennessee Titans defenders and danced the Griddy into the end zone. The Vikings set off fireworks but after the blast all that could be heard were tiny voices celebrating at field level. Had US Bank Stadium been packed to the brim, Jefferson’s score would have been audible from St. Paul.
Naturally, the Vikings are elated to have the seats in downtown Minneapolis packed again on Sunday when they match up with the Seattle Seahawks but Jefferson touched on something this week that is worth thinking about: Does it really change things?
“It was definitely different but that didn’t stop me from doing what I was supposed to do and now to have fans back in the stadium, it feels like normal again,” Jefferson said.
The star receiver was hardly held back by playing in an empty stadium. Of course, the Vikings’ defense also blew a two-score lead in that game against the Titans.
How much difference does home field advantage really make these days? Will it have an impact on the Vikings’ pivotal opener at US Bank Stadium on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks?
Advantage, defense
On the offensive side of things, the Vikings haven’t gotten a massive boost from their home confines when fans are present. In 32 regular season home games between 2016 and 2019, they produced 746 points (23.3 per game) and on the road they scored 730 in 32 games (22.8 per game).
Kirk Cousins has largely been the same quarterback, registering a 105.2 rating at home and 101.2 rating on the road between 2018 and 2019.
Where the numbers are vastly different is the points allowed by the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Vikings gave up just 16.5 points per game from 2016-2019 (second best in the NFL) and on the road they allowed 21.0 per game (eighth).
Coincidentally, on both the first night at US Bank Stadium and the last time the place was jammed with fans, the Vikings’ defense made things very difficult on an elite quarterback. In 2016, Aaron Rodgers threw an interception on the final drive to come up short and in 2019 he left with a 68.3 quarterback rating. That has been more or less the story of the Vikings’ home defense from its inception.
“It’s a big deal,” safety Harrison Smith said. “Honestly I took it for granted my whole career, even going back to high school, just having fans around. Once you play without them, you realize how real fans are when it comes to impacting the game.”
Not that the Vikings’ stacked defensive rosters struggled on the road from 2016 to 2019 but they were noticeably better in some key areas.
29.8% third down percentage at home (1st) vs. 37.5% away (4th)
104 sacks at home (1st) vs. 72 sacks (20th)
286.1 yards against per game at home (1st) vs. 335.3 away (6th)
Noise, sacks and third downs are probably connected.
“I think on third downs, especially, when we’re rushing the passer and we can get off on the snap and they have to rely on silent counts and things like that,” co-defensive coordinator Adam Zimmer said. “Where we can go on their movement instead of them knowing what the snap count is and getting off on the ball. I think that’s huge. I think it hurts the communication.”
Refs and travel
Overall the had the fourth best record in the NFL at home from ‘16-’19 with 23 wins and just nine losses but they went just 16-15-1 on the road.
That isn’t vastly different from the rest of the NFL. Only 12 teams had a positive point differential on the road from ‘16-’19 whereas 20 teams were on the plus side at home.
But gambling experts are starting to see the home/road differentials trend much closer to even than in past years. "
“In general the last two seasons-plus home field advantage has been pretty much negligible,” said Drew Dinsick, an analyst for NBC Sports Bet and host of Bet the Edge podcast.
He has a theory about why that might be.
“You had a bunch of old school referees that retired in the ‘17, ‘18, ‘19 timeframe and I think they made a concerted effort with the new refs that came up to try to get them to be truly in control and not influenced by the fans,” Dinsick said. “I think that has worked. When you look at penalty splits and stuff like that, there’s really no clear signal that any of the current crews are home biased. Back in the day, home bias for officiating was enormous.”
Years ago, the book Scorecasting dove deep into sports refereeing and the influence of home field/court and found across sports that there was a serious impact. Home teams got more free throw attempts in basketball and football penalties were called more often on the road team near the home team’s sideline.
The NFL evening out its penalties makes it more of a 50-50 proposition of whether your club will get the benefit of a key holding call or pass interference at the best/worst possible moment.
“That’s really taken a massive hit out of home field advantage we can expect,” Dinsick said.
Statistically speaking, Dinsick said that his win probability model only gives about a 2% boost to the home team whereas years ago it would have been closer to 8%.
The zebras aren’t the only reason for that. Back in the day, teams traveling in back-to-back weeks was a signal to the sharp bettors that a team would underperform. With improved travel options, that’s no longer a serious consideration.
“I don’t know if teams figured this out on their own or what but they travel a day early or if we fly charter instead of putting them all on a standard flight, it’s less of an impact,” Dinsick said. “Improvements in team philosophy in terms of how they’re approaching travel has really helped improve the performance that you see from road teams. That’s taken another bite out of home field advantage.”
Zimmer vs. Wilson
So what explains the Vikings’ improvement on defense when they are playing in front of fans at US Bank Stadium? Why do they sack opposing QBs more often? Why do third downs turn into nightmares for visiting offenses?
“Can you manifest the crowd noise in key moments of the game to disrupt the opposing offense’s pass protection? That’s kind of all there is left,” Dinsick said. “Can you get your crowd noise to disrupt your opponent’s snap count. If they have to go with the silent count, have they practiced that and that type of stuff tends to boil down to how well coached the road team is.”
Giving Mike Zimmer an edge on the opposing offense is like giving Greg Maddux a 99 mph fastball (or for the youths, how about making Anthony Edwards 7-foot tall). Even last year with no fans and a defensive roster severely lacking in talent, Zimmer schemed his way to still ranking 10th in defensive third down percentage. If anyone knows how to “manifest” the crowd noise, it’s him.
Because of Zimmer’s ability to use the environment to gain an edge, Dinsick gave the Vikings more of a win probability advantage (4%) this week than he normally would for a regular home team.
But there’s another point to be made about the ‘16-’19 Vikings teams that had the crowd advantage: They stayed together a long time. All the starters in 2019 were on the team in 2016. The rebuilt Vikings’ 2021 defense has suffered from communication errors in each of the first two weeks and the crazy-loud environment is about to make communicating even tougher on them too.
“It makes it hard to communicate when we’re on the field especially in home games, but we still enjoy it,” Smith said. “We feel like we thrive in that that environment. But hand signals and kind of pre alignment communications and stuff is very important.”
The Vikings also fell victim last week to a dynamic quarterback. Kyler Murray went for 400 yards passing, much of which was picked up after he escaped the Vikings’ pass rush.
Now they face an even more proven version in Russell Wilson, who happens to be one of the best road quarterbacks in the NFL. Experienced Wilson-facer Patrick Peterson compared the seven-time Pro Bowler to some of the greatest QBs of all time.
“There’s greatness in front of you whenever you line up across from a guy like that,” Peterson said. “I put him in that same boat and era as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning. He’s in that type of company. How he’s able to win the close games, how he’s able to keep his teams in position to win.”
Over the last three years, only one quarterback in the NFL has a better road QB rating than Wilson — shocker, it’s Patrick Mahomes.
“Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes have a very telltale skill, which is when the pocket breaks down, they can evade pressure well and rather than making a poor decision and throwing an interception or throwing the ball away, they’re going to hit a home run on you,” Dinsick said. “That’s probably part of it. If their offensive line is losing the battle, those guys can still hurt you.”
So who wins the unstoppable force of Zimmer’s US Bank Stadium defense vs immovable object of Russell Wilson?
Vegas thinks this one will be close. Seattle is a 2-point favorite. Dinsick has it closer to 1 or 1.5.
“Ultimately it probably comes down to end-of-game execution and I have Russell Wilson rated higher than Kirk Cousins by a non-trivial amount,” Dinsick said. “For me it’s Seahawks but it’s a coinflip.”
Cousins does have a 115.0 QB rating in the fourth quarter at US Bank Stadium since 2018, if you were wondering. So if we’re in for another down-to-the-wire contest, we’ll see if the Vikings can use home field to their advantage the way they have many times before.
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No doubt crowd noise is a big advantage. I wonder if our OL would have started better against the Bengals if at US Bank and changed that outcome. I think we are better at home but also worse on the road. The Vikings of the dome era seem much better on turf and indoors (all home, some away) than on grass or outdoors (all road). All outdoor teams have varying advantages of knowing how to deal with their own wind/rain, heat/cold, stadium shadows, cleat selection, etc. They’re good when things are perfect but being adapted to ideal isn’t necessarily an advantage.