Picking the Vikings 2026 schedule
The NFL released its schedule, so let's pick every game and look at one key factor
By Matthew Coller
The Minnesota Vikings (and the rest of the NFL) released its schedule for 2026. Let’s dive into every game, a key factor and prediction…
Week 1 — Vs. Green Bay
Key factor: Is Matthew Golden ready to take a big step? Is Tucker Kraft back yet?
The Green Bay Packers haven’t had a true No. 1 wide receiver since Davante Adams left, though they have seen flashes from Christian Watson at times over the years. Their next great hope is for first-round pick in 2025 Matthew Golden to take a big step forward this year and become that guy for Jordan Love. The Pack showed confidence in that idea by letting Romeo Doubs walk in free agency and not replacing him.
Last year Tucker Kraft was en route to turning into a superstar tight end when he tore his ACL. If he’s ready to return by Week 1, then the Vikings will still have a lot of weapons to account for when they face Green Bay in the opener. If not, the Packers offense is vastly different, which was demonstrated down the stretch of 2025.
Green Bay is very unlikely to have Micah Parsons back in time for Kyler Murray’s debut. That’s a huge break for the Vikings.
PREDICTION: Vikings win (1-0)
Week 2 — AT Chicago
Key factor: Will the Bears’ defense regress?
After ranking 29th in yards allowed, you would have thought the Bears would invest heavily on the defensive side this offseason but… they did not. The front seven remains largely unchanged and they replaced interception machine Kevin Byard and hard-nosed safety Jaquon Brisker with Dillon Thieneman and free agent Coby Bryant. That’s really all the adjustments Chicago made. That’s music to the Vikings’ ears since Kevin O’Connell’s offenses generally have thrived when QBs have time to throw.
The problem for the Vikings is on the other side of the ball. Not only does Caleb Williams have a full offseason to master Ben Johnson’s offense, he has a chance to take another step from an accuracy perspective. Williams has always driven the Vikings insane with his playmaking ability and we expect this to be no different. Plus Johnson’s run schemes are nearly unmatched in the NFL and the Vikings will be playing with inexperience in the middle of their D-line (though they hope to overpower former Viking Garrett Bradbury).
Soldier Field hasn’t been a house of horrors for KOC but it’s never easy in the NFC North.
PREDICTION: Bears win (1-1)
Week 3 — AT Tampa Bay Bucs
Key factor: Can the Bucs offense bounce back?
After an explosive 2024 season for Tampa Bay, they regressed hard in 2025. The ever hot and cold Baker Mayfield struggled down the stretch, finishing with a 90.6 QB rating and they lost seven of their final nine games.
Tampa Bay lost one of Mayfield’s favorite weapons in the offseason in Mike Evans, making it a little tougher for the veteran quarterback to bounce back.
At the same time, Mayfield was dealing with an injury last year and is only one year separated from 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. The Bucs still have a good group of weapons, highlighted by first-rounder Emeka Egbuka and they have a good offensive line when healthy.
On the road, this could be a tough challenge with Todd Bowles’ aggressive approach and a dominant middle of the D-line for Tampa Bay.
PREDICTION: Bucs win (1-2)
Week 4 — Vs. Miami
Key factor: Does Malik Willis have any weapons?
You can imagine the former Packer quarterback signing with the Dolphins and asking: “You’re going to get some receivers for me, right? Right?”
And the answer is no.
The Dolphins did decide to keep De’Von Achane and drafted a massive offensive lineman but overall the team is in rough shape. The WR depth chart looks like this: Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman. Unless the rookies are outstanding right away, there isn’t much to write home about.
Willis’ running is a wild card and their defense has some talent but overall the Dolphins look like a team headed for the No. 1 overall pick.
PREDICTION: Vikings win (2-2)
Week 5 — AT New Orleans
Key factor: Is Tyler Shough dangerous now that he has more weapons?
The Saints did a good job of adding around Shough, who also has an innovative offensive mind at head coach in Kellen Moore. The inexperienced quarterback should have everything he needs to take a Year 2 leap but that depends on whether he’s actually a quality starting QB or not. Last year there were good moments for the former Louisville QB and he finished 17th by PFF grade.
The problem he’s going to face is that he’s never gone up against Flores’ defense before and that has rarely worked out for young quarterbacks.
The Saints also didn’t bolster their defense much and KOC is very familiar with Brandon Staley’s system.
PREDICTION: Vikings win (3-2)
Week 6 — BYE
Week 7 — Vs. Indianapolis
Key factor: Vikings run defense will be tested by Jonathan Taylor
Few players in the backfield have been more consistently dangerous than Taylor, who gained 1,585 yards and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground in 2025. And few teams have been more committed to their run game and building an offensive line around run blocking than Indianapolis. They ranked 4th by PFF in run blocking grade behind superstar guard Quenton Nelson.
The Vikings’ run defense didn’t finish with poor overall numbers (8th in yards per carry allowed) but opponents were able to avoid Brian Flores’ dangerous blitzes at times by leaning heavy on the run. This offseason, veteran pass rushers Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen exited and were replaced by two massive draft picks in Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange. You can bet that the Colts are going to find out just how NFL-ready those two DTs are against Taylor and their beastly offensive line.
Still, Indy isn’t a complete team and Daniel Jones will be facing a very different Vikings defense than when he beat them in the playoffs in 2022.
PREDICTION: Vikings win (4-2)
Week 8 — AT Detroit
Key factor: Does every game at Detroit have to be insane?
If we look at the recent contests between the Vikings and Lions that have been played in the Motor City, it’s never normal. Last year JJ McCarthy returned to lead a 27-24 game that the Vikings nearly gave away at the end. In 2024, the Lions beat them to take the division in Week 18. In 2023, Nick Mullens threw for a million yards in a meaningless game. In 2022, both teams went over 400 yards and the Lions ended the game with a pass to Penei Sewell.
What will it be this time? Last season, the Vikings defense finally caught up to Jared Goff without Ben Johnson doing the game planning and they were able to slow down Jahmyr Gibbs in ways they never could before. Can they continue doing that? Or will Detroit be able to bounce back with a new offensive coordinator?
Ford Field will be crazy as always, so we’ll give this one to Detroit.
PREDICTION: Lions win (4-3)
Week 9 — Vs. Buffalo
Key factor: How will Joe Brady adjust to the HC job?
Under Sean McDermott, the Buffalo Bills ranked 12th, 11th, 4th, 2nd, 1st on defense since 2021 and won 66% of their games overall. Maybe he deserved to be fired after another playoff disappointment but it’s not easy to match that type of performance.
Will they still be as good defensively now that McDermott is gone?
On the other side, will they be even more dynamic offensively now that DJ Moore is in the mix and Joe Brady is calling all the shots? Brady is a total wild card as a head coach considering he doesn’t have a ton of experience as an NFL offensive coordinator.
If he adjusts quickly and Josh Allen is Josh Allen, the Bills should be one of the best teams in the NFL again.
PREDICTION: Bills win (4-4)
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