O'Connell signs extension, beginning the next phase of his tenure
Unsurprisingly, the Vikings signed KOC to multi-year deal. He raised the bar for the franchise in his first three years, what's next?
By Matthew Coller
After the Minnesota Vikings announced that they had signed a long-term contract extension with head coach Kevin O’Connell, I went back and looked at the other hires from the 2022 head coaching hiring cycle and the expectations that came along with those new coaches. I ran across an NFL.com article that ranked each situation the coaches were taking over and out of 10 new hires, O’Connell’s spot with the Vikings was ranked sixth.
The writer, former player Bucky Brooks, said in that article: “Given the playoff expectations that come with a big-money quarterback in his prime, the pressure is on O'Connell to figure things out in a hurry in Minneapolis.”
Six of those 10 coaches have already been fired, by the way.
Brooks was right though. The Vikings’ owners were not willing to let their new regime tear the roster all the way down to the screws and rebuild it over several years with oodles of cap space and draft capital like the Detroit Lions did with Dan Campbell. They were asking O’Connell to turn around a culture that had been burned to the ground by Mike Zimmer. They were asking him to give one last college try with a quarterback and roster that had proven over years with Zimmer that it wasn’t able to get over the hump. They were asking him to teach a QB who had struggled to win over the locker room to become the guy.
And then when that roster won 13 games, they asked O’Connell to see them through a “competitive rebuild” where a big chunk of his veterans were going to be shipped off in favor of future cap space. Then they asked O’Connell to part ways with the veteran QB and find the next franchise quarterback and wade through “bridge quarterback” waters with Sam Darnold.
Do you know how the other coaches with “bridge QBs” did this year? New England: Fired. Las Vegas: Fired. Those teams had similar over-under win totals to begin the season, too. The only team that survived it was Pittsburgh.
O’Connell checked off all those boxes. He created an environment that players in the NFLPA survey ranked at the top of the NFL two years in a row and will assuredly do so again this year. He helped Cousins become a clutch leader and then guided them to 14 wins after losing his proven QB. He won 34 games in three years — a number that not even his hiring owners or GM could have dreamed when they brought him in.
So when the team announced KOC’s extension on Tuesday, it was the least surprising news of the offseason. But as impressive as the first three years of O’Connell’s tenure have been, there is something missing: Playoff wins.
It’s not fair to judge QBs and coaches by playoff wins — ask Dan Marino and Marty Schottenheimer — but football isn’t fair. In the end, winning 13 or 14 games and being eliminated in the first round is like getting a good salad and appetizer and then the main course is served cold.
While there has been some scrutiny within the analysis of O’Connell’s early playoff exits, most of the reaction has been along the lines that he overachieved and the wheels eventually just came off. That was more true in 2022 than 2024 but in both instances the team produced way more in terms of winning than anybody saw possible with the roster, so the claws did not come out for him in the aftermath of the Vikings’ elimination. Most of the blame, in fact, fell on the shoulders of flawed QBs who just weren’t quite up for the moment.
In the coming years of O’Connell’s next contract, the landscape is going to be different. Not only has the bar been raised to the point where playoff appearances and postseason wins are the expectation going forward but as soon as 10th overall draft pick JJ McCarthy steps under center for the first time, this is officially and completely the O’Connell regime. It’s no longer a clean-up job that he made look more spiffy than it was.
Once a head coach is locked in with his quarterback, there are no asterisks or excuses. There are no rebuilds or tanks. There is only division titles, playoff victories and rings.
If we look around the league, that is the case everywhere. Whether it’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes being expected to reach the Super Bowl every year or the Chicago Bears hiring Ben Johnson to pair with young Caleb Williams, the coach-QB duos are not given any pats on the back.
What does that mean for KOC other than saying that he has to win playoff games in the future? It says that the evaluation changes when it comes to a lot of areas of the team.
In the last three years, weaknesses on the roster were viewed as a product of the salary cap disaster they were left with i.e. $71 million in dead cap space this year. That’s off the books now. And when the over-under was 6.5 games and they won 14, it felt downright ridiculous to criticize the issues with the running game or pass protection. Going forward it’s going to be a little different. They won’t be the fun story of the NFL and the regular season will be seen as a long slog to the games that really matter.
The Green Bay Packers saw this change from 2023 to 2024. Last year, Jordan Love was a cool story. He improved greatly in the second half of the season and showed potential in the playoffs but in 2024 the Packers failing to become a true contender was a disappointment and adds pressure to Matt LaFleur.
Pressure doesn’t always mean “could get fired.” Coaches like LaFleur fall into the category of dudes you don’t fire unless things totally fall apart. The same goes for the other ringless consistent winners like Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, and DeMeco Ryans. It does mean that failing to reach championship weekend will come along with way more scrutiny than when the team was forming its foundation.
What has to happen for the Vikings to get there? That starts with the “collaboration” part. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that an extension for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is on the way as well. Continuing to build the roster around the foundation of a young QB, Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and Jonathan Greenard is vital to Phase 2 of the KOC era.
They will need to thread the needle of allocating a large amount of cap space correctly and making the most of a small amount of draft capital. How can they build an elite offensive line for KOC’s deep-passing game? How will they develop an effective running game? Can they put together more than a patchwork secondary?
Along the way, plenty more questions will have to be answered by O’Connell. Can he maximize McCarthy’s strengths? Can he adapt as the years go by and the league changes? Will he remain the same through the newfound expectations?
O’Connell has given every reason to believe that he can do those things. In the years to come with this extension, it will need to be proven.
I like the extension hopefully Kwesi and Brian are extended as well. I’m a believer in continuity. I’m not sure if the Vikings will compete for a championship any time soon. I was positive the Lions would this year and they didn’t do any better than the Vikings.
I hope his GM is able to hit on a draft pick or two as well. FA work is top notch but they need both to bear fruit.