Notes from divisional weekend

AFC/NFC Championships are set, GM developments and Rodgers' future

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By Matthew Coller

Whew! What an incredible weekend of football. There were lots of developments and things to discuss amidst the madness. Let’s have a look…

GM decision is coming

NFL Network reported on Saturday that the Vikings are down to two finalists in their search for a new general manager: Chiefs director of player personnel Ryan Poles and Browns VP of football operations Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The Chicago Bears also requested a second interview with Poles but those familiar with the situation believe Poles if the Vikings’ top choice.

Matthew Coller @MatthewColler

From a few conversations I had this morning, my understanding is that the Vikings want Ryan Poles to be their next GM but it might depend on whether Chicago makes him a better offer. So we wait and see

CBS’s Jason La Canfora confirmed late Saturday evening that he would be “surprised” if Poles did not become the new GM of the Vikings.

Jason La Canfora @JasonLaCanfora

Minnesota Vikings are honing in on their next GM. Would be very surprised if Ryan Poles of the KC Chiefs is not hired for the position

The Vikings’ second interview with Poles is reportedly scheduled for Wednesday.

While we wait for resolution, you can watch this interview with Poles…

Todd Bowles second interview

NFL Network is reporting that the Vikings are hot on Todd Bowles as a head coaching candidate.

As we have seen in the past, performance on the final day of the season generally doesn’t impact coaching hires but Bowles became the second Vikings candidate to have a blunder in the waning moments. His team sent a blitz — which Bruce Arians later revealed that there was some confusion involved — and Matthew Stafford launched the ball to a wide open Cooper Kupp for a 44-yard gain that set up the game-winning field goal for the Rams. Kupp, the NFL’s leader in catches, yards and touchdowns, was left one-on-one with a safety on the play.

Bowles’ final drive mishap wasn’t the only mistake. He repeatedly blitzed one of the best offenses in the NFL against the blitz and got burned by Stafford.

Aside from his tough outing on Sunday, Bowles wouldn’t seem to fit on the surface what the Vikings should be looking for in their next head coach based on his defensive background but the Vikings have interviewed numerous defensive-minded coaches including DeMeco Ryans, Dan Quinn and Raheem Morris. There was an ESPN report that they are aiming to find their version of Mike Tomlin — whatever that means. Without a GM in place, it could all be just noise.

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet

The @NFLGameDay Notebook with @MikeGarafolo & @TomPelissero: #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will consider his future; Todd Bowles emerging as a key candidate for the #Vikings; DeMeco Ryans and Lou Anarumo both have big interviews today; Could this be Tom Brady’s final game today?

Rodgers might be leaving the NFC North — really

Saturday night may have marked the last time Aaron Rodgers walks off the field at Lambeau as a member of the Green Bay Packers.

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

Aaron Rodgers to reporters tonight: “I’m gonna take some time and have conversations with the folks around here, and then take some time away and make a decision - obviously before free agency.”

Prior to the season, Davante Adams referenced the Michael Jordan documentary “The Last Dance,” which followed the Chicago Bulls’ final season with Jordan and fellow stars Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman together. While the Packers didn’t finish with a championship like the Bulls did, it’s very possible their 13-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers will mark their last dance as one of the NFL’s top QB-WR duos.

Similar to what the Vikings and Saints have done in recent years when they felt they had “winning windows,” the Packers shuffled around cap space to give them one more kick at the can. But that comes with a cost. Cap expert Jason Fitzgerald explained at OverTheCap.com:

“Once Green Bay makes their futures signings official this week they will project to be about $48.5 million over the 2022 salary cap and about $52 million over once you factor in rookie contracts. It’s the second worst salary cap position in the NFL.”

“Rodgers has a $46.8 million cap charge in 2022, the second highest cap number in the NFL. The cost to move Rodgers off the team is substantial- $26.847 million- and that number is the same whether he is cut or traded. In both scenarios the Packers will only open up $19.95 million in cap room. So moving Rodgers is not the miracle path to salary cap heaven the way many think.”

There are always things that teams can do in order to solve their salary cap issues but the Packers’ situation is so tricky that it’s difficult to see a way to re-sign Adams, who is a free agent, and keep other star players like Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. One way out of paying gigantic cap hits is giving out contract extensions but who is signing long term of Rodgers isn’t going to be there?

The most likely scenario appears to be that the Packers would trade Rodgers and he will work out an extension with his new team in order to lower the dead cap on the Packers. Dealing a top-five QB is going to give Green Bay plenty of ammo to build with over the next few years but would instantly bring them back to the pack (pun intended).

That would leave the NFC North in a state of purely rebuilding teams. The tanking Lions are going to pick at the top of the draft and build on the young players they evaluated this year while Chicago has its potential franchise QB in Justin Fields, while the Vikings have lots of decisions to make on veteran players, including Kirk Cousins. It’s hard to say whether the Packers will turn things over to Jordan Love if Rodgers exits.

It’s a good question to ask whether the Vikings would adapt their timeline if Rodgers leaves or retires. Their odds of winning the NFC North would undoubtedly increase 10 fold the moment Rodgers exited the building but with other rebuilding teams in the division, they can’t only focus on 2022.