This is the year that Zimmer has no excuses. Every year they have missed the playoffs there has been some tangible reason why. With them pouring their limited cap space into defense I can’t see ownership giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore. Whatever happens the draft war room needs to have this theme: What players can we draft to help Cousins play the best possible football each week? If they take that philosophy they will be fine if not we will see some wholesale changes sooner rather than later.
I'm pretty much with you on Zimmer overall. I don't want him as the coach any longer given how stubbornly conservative he is on offense. That said, I find myself defending him in that I think what he and Rick did this off season is defensible in that they got mostly good defensive players at good value (outside of Peterson) and given how difficult Zimmer's defense is to master having veterans makes a lot of sense. So even if he has trouble admitting he over-estimated what the rookies could do last year at least he and Rick did something different this year. This draft overall is richer in offensive players than on defense and with the Rudolph cap savings they can still get some average O-linemen later on.
All that said, he's gotten what he wanted this off season just like you say and you're right, if he doesn't win then his head should be on the block. Just like surrounding a young QB with talent to see if they really have it or not, we get to see that with Mike this year.
Agree with Finchy74. An extremely interesting draft coming up - and not just for the Vikings! As much as it pains me to say this - I personally don't think there is any team that is going to offer a 2nd rounder to move up to the 14th position though. Especially with it being a tougher year than normal to do comprehensive player evaluations.
Think the best we'll be able to do (assuming Sewell and Slater are off the board at #14) is trade down slightly, and pickup a 3rd rounder in the process. Then maybe - just maybe - we can package some 3's and 4's together to get a pick in the 2nd.
I do feel there will be some players available at #14 that other teams will covet - perhaps Jones or Lance, Horn, Parsons, Paye & Darrisaw for example. So if we traded down three spots and picked up a 3rd in the process - we could still have one of those five players. All of them would help in both the short and long term.
Great point on number of attractive players that would be available with a trade down 3-4 spots. I'd add Vera-Tucker to that list as well.
On the likelihood of teams willing to trade up this year, I can see both arguments. Reluctance given question marks on so many players as you mention so why risk the move up? On the other hand, maybe it makes players a team does feel comfortable with evaluation-wise far more attractive. If a team's seen plenty from Darrisaw's 3 seasons and over 2,300 snaps than another player with half that 6 or 8 spots later then is it more attractive to jump to get they guy they feel most confident about?
Definitely agree with you regarding Vera-Tucker - forgot about him RobK! I would also add that if either Jones or Lance are still available at #14, then the Vikings might receive an "enhanced" offer to trade down even a few spots (hello NE, WAS, or CHI) given the perceived importance of the QB position. Heck we may even stay put and take the remaining "top 5" QB ourselves!
Regarding Lance, I get how risky he is and it does nothing to help this team win now, but to get a player who fits much more the mobile skillset required from today's NFL QBs...wow, it's fun to think about. Okay by me even if it means he sits for two years behind Kirk and his (impossible to move?) contract.
I wonder where they would have been, had they embraced last year as a rebuild year, and went all in for making 2021 the year to return to the NFCCG. A top ten pick and a 2nd round pick could have gone a long way in plugging the holes this team currently has that they didn’t even fill in their quest to “win now.”
If I’m the Wilfs, I’m firing Zimmer and Spielman at the end of the year unless the win the SB, even if they manage to grab a QBotF in the first round because they made Kirk into their missing piece and haven’t come close to Championship weekend since and have been supremely disappointing for most of the last 3 years, Rick I don’t think has drafted well enough (JJ aside) to compliment Kirks contract and fill out the roster, Kirk hasn’t played well enough to overcome the deficiencies in the roster on both sides of the ball, and Zimmer hasn’t developed and coached well enough to cover the QB and GMs said issues.
It’s felt like a Triangle of Apathy. (It’s early for me and the best I could come up with)
I hope I’m wrong, but unless the Vikes manage to grab a future HOFer at a position of major need like LT/DE they’ll be in the middle of the pack again and the house will be cleaned and than we will start hearing about how 2023 or 24 is “our year.”
I have wondered the same thing so many times, Abadon. From my perspective, last year and this year should have been full rebuilding/reloading years with the idea of being able to make a serious run in 2022 and an even more serious run in 2023.
If they fired Zimmer right now, I'd be fine with it. I won't elaborate on that in order to keep my comment to a reasonable length.
I'm conflicted on firing Spielman for two reasons: 1) I'm always wary of making multiple changes in one year to the three pillars (HC, GM, ownership) 2) A pretty good argument could be made that he's a top 10 GM. Not necessarily saying he is, but that an argument could be made that he is. Those guys don't grow on trees.
I agree, it’s very hard to find a top GM and Rick has certainly had his fair share of home runs, but at some point his track record with QB and (to a lesser extent but equally important because of how they compliment each other) OL prospects generally being a major issue has to outweigh the future potential of the roster. I don’t think Rick is the guy I trust to select the right QB or OL. I’m eager to be wrong about that tho.
No way I could ever argue on the OL point. Rick's track record is abysmal there, especially when you look at the other lineman he often passed up when selecting the latest failure for the offensive line.
QB... I guess I give him an incomplete. Ponder was obviously a reach and a colossal miscalculation. But he did draft Teddy who I believe would have developed into a very, very good QB if not for his catastrophic injury. He also found undrafted Taylor Heinicke which was a nice find and is benefiting the Washington Budget Deficits (I like the "Sharks", Matthew but I'm going with something more apropos to D.C.). He's also done a pretty respectable job of finding QB's through FA and trades (Kirk's contract aside).
Honestly, my biggest concern if we drafted a QB wouldn't be Spielman's selection, it would be the capability of this coaching staff to develop the kid.
Great point. Maybe Zimmer is more of a detriment to the development rather than Spielman not selecting the right guy.
Agreed about Teddy. He could’ve been a top 12 QB with a team friendly deal that allows the FO to put the pieces it needs on Defense to succeed.
I guess either way I’m kind of just over the entire FO and would like to see a new direction for the team, or at least what feels like a modern one. I hope I’m proven wrong about that feeling tho.
I was just thinking about this exact subject this past weekend, Matthew. As I mentioned in the previous article, I don't see any o-lineman in this draft who isn't named Penei Sewell to be able to contribute in a meaningful fashion this year. Receiver and cornerback were at the top of my list in terms of immediate game changers as well.
I won't be shocked if the Vikings use one of their 3rd rounders on a receiver, but sadly I can't see them spending the 14th on someone like Chase (as much as I would love to see it). Even though they'd get accused of reaching, I would have zero problem if they drafted Bateman with the 14th pick. Now if Horn or Surtain dropped? I could absolutely see them pulling the trigger on one of them at 14 and I really couldn't argue with the decision very much given the value of CB in this league.
Matt, is it just me or does this seem like the most drama-filled, interesting draft for the Vikings in many, many years?
The only thing I'm sure about this draft is that man oh man does it hurt to not have a 2nd round pick this year.
Always good insights on your part Finchy and I think you've scored points with Matthew on bringing up a wide receiver at 14 (not that that's what you're aiming for necessarily). I have no problem with Surtain or Horn, to your point on CB value.
I still hold out hope they can drop a few spots and get back that second even if it means trading away other capital later on or next year. While it's unrealistic to expect much from rookies as Matthew's article illustrates, I think Rick is going to play every card he can to get more early season contributors from this draft, just out of sheer job desperation. On that front, I do think there are other lineman who can provide day one/early season value beyond Sewell. Slater and Vera-Tucker are both more technically skilled as far as I've read, and Darrisaw is such a physical monster he may get by on that in year one alone.
Rob, what are your thoughts on Darrisaw? I want to like him, especially since there's a good chance he'll be available at #14. He's got the perfect body to play tackle in this league, he's incredibly athletic and there are some pretty respected voices that put him on the same tier as Sewell. But man, I've watched that kid play a lot and his temperament on the field reminds me so much of Pat Elflein and Matt Kalil. I don't see much fire and aggression. He's also not nearly the run blocker he should be given his physical tools.
But in fairness to him, the Kalil/Elflein personality comparisons aren't totally fair because both men dealt with significant injuries during their time with the Vikes. Now obviously, I never played pro football but whether it was college, high school or even pee-wee, the best o-linemen I ever played with always had a mean streak. That concerns me with Darrisaw. It's very difficult to teach passion.
Perhaps I'd be less concerned about his personality if the Vikes had a better track record of developing linemen.
You've nailed the concern on Darrisaw; even evaluators who rank him in top fifteen prospects point out he plays down to his competition and he often can beat guys early so he doesn't play through 'til the whistle. That said, I'm influenced by first impressions and mine of Darrisaw is Mike Renner's write-up in PFF Guide in which he wrote he's "uniquely capable of moving men against their will" and Dane Brugler's comments in The Athletic, "he is a bulldozer in the run game." His outside zone grades and the amount Virgina Tech runs made me think he'd get Zimmer's seal of approval, but I haven't watched him like you have so defer to what you've seen--his more passive mindset doesn't appeal like Slater's or Vera-Tucker's who I've read are both very aggressive players, though neither have Darrisaw's physical gifts.
I checked the Consensus Board Arif Hasan compiles and it has Slater at 9, Darrisaw at 15, and Vera-Tucker at 16. While in the end, I would take any of the three, I would put Vera-Tucker ahead of Darrisaw for the reasons you cite--and because I still hold out in believing that Cleveland should be our starting OT opposite O'Neill. Yes, I know Guards aren't as valuable, but in terms of bringing up this entire offensive line's performance, adding what is arguably the best Guard prospect since Quenton Nelson would go a long way to improving Kirk and the offense's performance. Just watched Steve Palazzolo on PFF go through his analysis on improving QB play by investing around him, and it showed that receivers and O-line had an equal impact which was a little surprising--expectation was that receivers would matter quite a bit more.
VERY encouraging to hear that Renner likes him, same for Brugler. Don't get me wrong, I WANT to like Derrisaw because I think there's a good chance the Vikings take him if they stay at 14.
Could not agree more on Cleveland. The guy's body in no way resembles that of a pro guard. He's a tackle through and through. If the Vikes are going to spend that kind of draft capital, play the kid at his correct position and see if he can handle it.
I know... it's super short sighted... but I'm all for the here and now, load up for a big 2021 and worry about cleaning up AFTER the party. Terrible analogy that can easily refer to many MANY post-party sob stories... YOLO.
Just my opinion:
This is the year that Zimmer has no excuses. Every year they have missed the playoffs there has been some tangible reason why. With them pouring their limited cap space into defense I can’t see ownership giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore. Whatever happens the draft war room needs to have this theme: What players can we draft to help Cousins play the best possible football each week? If they take that philosophy they will be fine if not we will see some wholesale changes sooner rather than later.
I'm pretty much with you on Zimmer overall. I don't want him as the coach any longer given how stubbornly conservative he is on offense. That said, I find myself defending him in that I think what he and Rick did this off season is defensible in that they got mostly good defensive players at good value (outside of Peterson) and given how difficult Zimmer's defense is to master having veterans makes a lot of sense. So even if he has trouble admitting he over-estimated what the rookies could do last year at least he and Rick did something different this year. This draft overall is richer in offensive players than on defense and with the Rudolph cap savings they can still get some average O-linemen later on.
All that said, he's gotten what he wanted this off season just like you say and you're right, if he doesn't win then his head should be on the block. Just like surrounding a young QB with talent to see if they really have it or not, we get to see that with Mike this year.
Agree with Finchy74. An extremely interesting draft coming up - and not just for the Vikings! As much as it pains me to say this - I personally don't think there is any team that is going to offer a 2nd rounder to move up to the 14th position though. Especially with it being a tougher year than normal to do comprehensive player evaluations.
Think the best we'll be able to do (assuming Sewell and Slater are off the board at #14) is trade down slightly, and pickup a 3rd rounder in the process. Then maybe - just maybe - we can package some 3's and 4's together to get a pick in the 2nd.
I do feel there will be some players available at #14 that other teams will covet - perhaps Jones or Lance, Horn, Parsons, Paye & Darrisaw for example. So if we traded down three spots and picked up a 3rd in the process - we could still have one of those five players. All of them would help in both the short and long term.
The 29th can't arrive soon enough!!
Great point on number of attractive players that would be available with a trade down 3-4 spots. I'd add Vera-Tucker to that list as well.
On the likelihood of teams willing to trade up this year, I can see both arguments. Reluctance given question marks on so many players as you mention so why risk the move up? On the other hand, maybe it makes players a team does feel comfortable with evaluation-wise far more attractive. If a team's seen plenty from Darrisaw's 3 seasons and over 2,300 snaps than another player with half that 6 or 8 spots later then is it more attractive to jump to get they guy they feel most confident about?
Definitely agree with you regarding Vera-Tucker - forgot about him RobK! I would also add that if either Jones or Lance are still available at #14, then the Vikings might receive an "enhanced" offer to trade down even a few spots (hello NE, WAS, or CHI) given the perceived importance of the QB position. Heck we may even stay put and take the remaining "top 5" QB ourselves!
Regarding Lance, I get how risky he is and it does nothing to help this team win now, but to get a player who fits much more the mobile skillset required from today's NFL QBs...wow, it's fun to think about. Okay by me even if it means he sits for two years behind Kirk and his (impossible to move?) contract.
I wonder where they would have been, had they embraced last year as a rebuild year, and went all in for making 2021 the year to return to the NFCCG. A top ten pick and a 2nd round pick could have gone a long way in plugging the holes this team currently has that they didn’t even fill in their quest to “win now.”
If I’m the Wilfs, I’m firing Zimmer and Spielman at the end of the year unless the win the SB, even if they manage to grab a QBotF in the first round because they made Kirk into their missing piece and haven’t come close to Championship weekend since and have been supremely disappointing for most of the last 3 years, Rick I don’t think has drafted well enough (JJ aside) to compliment Kirks contract and fill out the roster, Kirk hasn’t played well enough to overcome the deficiencies in the roster on both sides of the ball, and Zimmer hasn’t developed and coached well enough to cover the QB and GMs said issues.
It’s felt like a Triangle of Apathy. (It’s early for me and the best I could come up with)
I hope I’m wrong, but unless the Vikes manage to grab a future HOFer at a position of major need like LT/DE they’ll be in the middle of the pack again and the house will be cleaned and than we will start hearing about how 2023 or 24 is “our year.”
I have wondered the same thing so many times, Abadon. From my perspective, last year and this year should have been full rebuilding/reloading years with the idea of being able to make a serious run in 2022 and an even more serious run in 2023.
If they fired Zimmer right now, I'd be fine with it. I won't elaborate on that in order to keep my comment to a reasonable length.
I'm conflicted on firing Spielman for two reasons: 1) I'm always wary of making multiple changes in one year to the three pillars (HC, GM, ownership) 2) A pretty good argument could be made that he's a top 10 GM. Not necessarily saying he is, but that an argument could be made that he is. Those guys don't grow on trees.
I agree, it’s very hard to find a top GM and Rick has certainly had his fair share of home runs, but at some point his track record with QB and (to a lesser extent but equally important because of how they compliment each other) OL prospects generally being a major issue has to outweigh the future potential of the roster. I don’t think Rick is the guy I trust to select the right QB or OL. I’m eager to be wrong about that tho.
No way I could ever argue on the OL point. Rick's track record is abysmal there, especially when you look at the other lineman he often passed up when selecting the latest failure for the offensive line.
QB... I guess I give him an incomplete. Ponder was obviously a reach and a colossal miscalculation. But he did draft Teddy who I believe would have developed into a very, very good QB if not for his catastrophic injury. He also found undrafted Taylor Heinicke which was a nice find and is benefiting the Washington Budget Deficits (I like the "Sharks", Matthew but I'm going with something more apropos to D.C.). He's also done a pretty respectable job of finding QB's through FA and trades (Kirk's contract aside).
Honestly, my biggest concern if we drafted a QB wouldn't be Spielman's selection, it would be the capability of this coaching staff to develop the kid.
Great point. Maybe Zimmer is more of a detriment to the development rather than Spielman not selecting the right guy.
Agreed about Teddy. He could’ve been a top 12 QB with a team friendly deal that allows the FO to put the pieces it needs on Defense to succeed.
I guess either way I’m kind of just over the entire FO and would like to see a new direction for the team, or at least what feels like a modern one. I hope I’m proven wrong about that feeling tho.
I was just thinking about this exact subject this past weekend, Matthew. As I mentioned in the previous article, I don't see any o-lineman in this draft who isn't named Penei Sewell to be able to contribute in a meaningful fashion this year. Receiver and cornerback were at the top of my list in terms of immediate game changers as well.
I won't be shocked if the Vikings use one of their 3rd rounders on a receiver, but sadly I can't see them spending the 14th on someone like Chase (as much as I would love to see it). Even though they'd get accused of reaching, I would have zero problem if they drafted Bateman with the 14th pick. Now if Horn or Surtain dropped? I could absolutely see them pulling the trigger on one of them at 14 and I really couldn't argue with the decision very much given the value of CB in this league.
Matt, is it just me or does this seem like the most drama-filled, interesting draft for the Vikings in many, many years?
The only thing I'm sure about this draft is that man oh man does it hurt to not have a 2nd round pick this year.
Always good insights on your part Finchy and I think you've scored points with Matthew on bringing up a wide receiver at 14 (not that that's what you're aiming for necessarily). I have no problem with Surtain or Horn, to your point on CB value.
I still hold out hope they can drop a few spots and get back that second even if it means trading away other capital later on or next year. While it's unrealistic to expect much from rookies as Matthew's article illustrates, I think Rick is going to play every card he can to get more early season contributors from this draft, just out of sheer job desperation. On that front, I do think there are other lineman who can provide day one/early season value beyond Sewell. Slater and Vera-Tucker are both more technically skilled as far as I've read, and Darrisaw is such a physical monster he may get by on that in year one alone.
Rob, what are your thoughts on Darrisaw? I want to like him, especially since there's a good chance he'll be available at #14. He's got the perfect body to play tackle in this league, he's incredibly athletic and there are some pretty respected voices that put him on the same tier as Sewell. But man, I've watched that kid play a lot and his temperament on the field reminds me so much of Pat Elflein and Matt Kalil. I don't see much fire and aggression. He's also not nearly the run blocker he should be given his physical tools.
But in fairness to him, the Kalil/Elflein personality comparisons aren't totally fair because both men dealt with significant injuries during their time with the Vikes. Now obviously, I never played pro football but whether it was college, high school or even pee-wee, the best o-linemen I ever played with always had a mean streak. That concerns me with Darrisaw. It's very difficult to teach passion.
Perhaps I'd be less concerned about his personality if the Vikes had a better track record of developing linemen.
You've nailed the concern on Darrisaw; even evaluators who rank him in top fifteen prospects point out he plays down to his competition and he often can beat guys early so he doesn't play through 'til the whistle. That said, I'm influenced by first impressions and mine of Darrisaw is Mike Renner's write-up in PFF Guide in which he wrote he's "uniquely capable of moving men against their will" and Dane Brugler's comments in The Athletic, "he is a bulldozer in the run game." His outside zone grades and the amount Virgina Tech runs made me think he'd get Zimmer's seal of approval, but I haven't watched him like you have so defer to what you've seen--his more passive mindset doesn't appeal like Slater's or Vera-Tucker's who I've read are both very aggressive players, though neither have Darrisaw's physical gifts.
I checked the Consensus Board Arif Hasan compiles and it has Slater at 9, Darrisaw at 15, and Vera-Tucker at 16. While in the end, I would take any of the three, I would put Vera-Tucker ahead of Darrisaw for the reasons you cite--and because I still hold out in believing that Cleveland should be our starting OT opposite O'Neill. Yes, I know Guards aren't as valuable, but in terms of bringing up this entire offensive line's performance, adding what is arguably the best Guard prospect since Quenton Nelson would go a long way to improving Kirk and the offense's performance. Just watched Steve Palazzolo on PFF go through his analysis on improving QB play by investing around him, and it showed that receivers and O-line had an equal impact which was a little surprising--expectation was that receivers would matter quite a bit more.
VERY encouraging to hear that Renner likes him, same for Brugler. Don't get me wrong, I WANT to like Derrisaw because I think there's a good chance the Vikings take him if they stay at 14.
Could not agree more on Cleveland. The guy's body in no way resembles that of a pro guard. He's a tackle through and through. If the Vikes are going to spend that kind of draft capital, play the kid at his correct position and see if he can handle it.
I know... it's super short sighted... but I'm all for the here and now, load up for a big 2021 and worry about cleaning up AFTER the party. Terrible analogy that can easily refer to many MANY post-party sob stories... YOLO.
Would be interesting to see a position-by-position analysis to see what the projected difference in WAR is from last year to this year at this point.