By Matthew Coller
The Minnesota Vikings’ offense is weird as heck on paper.
They are 29th in Expected Points Added but 14th in the percentage of drives that they have scored on.
They are 29th in passing yards per game but 12th in completion percentage and 16th in team passer rating.
They are 24th in rushing EPA but 13th in rushing yards per game.
Kyler Murray is 27th in ESPN’s QBR but he’s No. 1 in completion percentage on throws between 0-9 yards and ninth in rushing EPA.
Aaron Jones is 38th by PFF grade but sixth in total rush yards.
What the heck is going on here?
Welcome to a ball control offense.
The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in time of possession per game. They are 28th in pass:run ratio (meaning they run a lot) and Kyler Murray is sixth in percentage of passes that have gone behind the line of scrimmage. He is 34th in percentage of intermediate passes.
It was pointed out by subscriber Aaron, a data enjoyer, that the Vikings are also taking the most time between plays on the clock of any team. Which we have been critical about delay of game penalties (rightfully) but it has helped keep opponents off the field and allowed the defense to stay fresh.
This has been a pretty monumental change for Kevin O’Connell as a play caller. In 2024, they were only 14th in time of possession despite winning 14 games and having a great defense and 22nd in time of possession per drive. They were also 15th in pass:run ratio despite being ahead often during that season. And Sam Darnold was 27th in percentage of passes behind the line of scrimmage and 37th on throws between 0-9 yards.
It’s pretty clear that having an explosive offense is a sign of being a good football team. In 2024, they had the second most passes that went for 20+ yards and had the most yards produced by throws that traveled more than 20 yards downfield in the NFL.
So as the Vikings get healthier when they return from the bye week, should they continue to grind clock in the same way that they have through the first five games or do they need to open the game up more and look for an explosive passing attack rather than the current high completion percentage game with lots and lots of rushing?
There are plenty of examples of teams who have taken the path of grinding on offense and relying heavily on a beastly defense.
Last year the Denver Broncos were 10th in time of possession and Bo Nix was 7th in yards gained on passes between 0-9 yards through the air and 6th behind the line of scrimmage. They were 6th in turnover percentage (in a good way) and they had the No. 3 defense in the NFL.
They ended up going 14-3 and coming within a Bo Nix ankle injury and bad Sean Payton fourth down decision from going to the Super Bowl.
The Bears and Texans had similar strategies. While the universe enjoyed watching Caleb Williams emerge, the Bears were 7th in time of possession, 22nd in pass:run ratio (meaning they ran a lot) and they had the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Chicago’s defense wasn’t great but they did lead the NFL in takeaways.
Houston was No. 2 in total turnovers, fourth in time of possession and they were No. 2 in points allowed and No. 1 in yards allowed defensively.
None of these three teams from last year’s postseason were special at quarterback. Williams and Nix were tied for the 13th best PFF grade and CJ Stroud was 32nd of 43. They were all serious contenders in the playoffs.
But there is something to be pointed out about their offenses: Chicago was 9th in EPA, Denver was 11th and Houston was 21st.
Here’s the other realities of the Vikings’ situation in comparison to teams that have actually made the Super Bowl: Over the last 10 years, 19 of the 20 teams to make the Super Bowl have had a top 10 total passing EPA. The only exception had a running back that went for 2,000 yards.
Also 18 of the 20 teams scored at least 400 points.
The Vikings’ defense is playing at a historically good rate and controlling the football by running, winding clock and completing short passes to put together long drives is going to help them significantly. But the offense needs to be good enough to take care of business when called upon. For example, the Broncos got 33 points against the Bills in the Divisional Round. The Texans, on the other hand, couldn’t produce enough to beat the New England Patriots.
The Vikings are set to play against Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love in the coming weeks. Those are quarterbacks who have the capability to keep their own teams on the field for long periods of time and put up big offensive numbers. At some point, winning a shootout is going to be required.
That’s where it becomes vital to balance each game individually based on what’s needed to win. We know that O’Connell’s offense is capable of pushing the ball downfield and Murray completed three of his four attempts past 20 yards last week. They need to have that button to push when it’s called upon.
Thus far, we haven’t seen it, partly because they haven’t needed it and partly because they haven’t had the healthy bodies to do it.
We are really going to learn what the offense is capable of doing when it’s closer to full strength with Jordan Mason in the backfield and Jefferson and Addison in the lineup at the same time with Murray. They may also need more help via Nolan Teasley as well.
So the answer is that the Vikings’ playing style generally is a model to win a lot of games but the offense has to meet a certain threshold and the defense has to continue to play at the same level and remain healthy.
If they can continue to control the ball and time of possession while sneaking in more explosive plays and move up to around the 10th-14th best offense in the second half, they should be able to enter the playoffs as a contender. If it continues to look like this, then could look much more like last year’s Eagles, who were 19th in scoring, 5th in points allowed, 12th in time of possession and were eliminated by the 49ers in the first round.
I've been really encouraged by the last 6 quarters. We'll need it to continue. The schedule is a challenge the rest of the way. Skol!
Also might be worth noting that, outside of the opener, they’ve mostly gotten the lead early, which keeps them in ball-control mode. Probably isn’t going to be the case as much moving forward against dangerous offenses.