Is it OK that the Vikings had a quiet free agency?
March hasn't offered a bunch of moves for the Vikings... will it cost them?
By Matthew Coller
For NFL fans, the offseason is either just as popular or even more entertaining than the actual games. In fact, the games are often filled with frustration and anxiety, whereas the free agency and draft period is pure intrigue and excitement.
Especially since everybody can play general manager at home with the incredible amount of tools that the internet has provided us. It isn’t even remotely difficult to study the Minnesota Vikings’ salary cap with OverTheCap.com. Finding a list of available free agents and projections for their contracts takes one quick Google search. You can use PFF to get player grades and deep data on how players were used with their previous team. And NFL.com and about 100 other websites will give you credible scouting reports on every draft pick and then you can simulate the draft using a bunch of different tools, whether it’s PFF or Stick To The Model or wherever you prefer.
So when we all map out our plans for the Vikings at the beginning of the offseason and very little happens, it’s like standing outside the candy store while all the Raider, Titan and Jets fans get to have all the fun. Their podcasters get to do emergency shows non stop. Their fans get to argue amongst themselves about overpays and celebrate the second wave steals. Yelling about the GM losing their mind for playing Player X salary Y is much more entertaining than staring at a blank screen.
And a blank screen it has been for the Vikings during this free agency period outside of adding quarterback Kyler Murray. They reworked a couple contracts, brought back Eric Wilson, kept the long snapper, got a new punter, added a depth defensive back and watched from their offices as other teams made a flurry of signings and trades.
Apparently the lack of moves does not come because of a shortage of cash. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote on Wednesday that he has been told by multiple sources that the Wilf ownership did not order the cash payroll to be lowered this year, rather the organization is undergoing a “right sizing” (his term) after buying out the candy store in recent years.
While we would all like to bum rush acting GM Rob Brzezinski’s office and demand that he sign somebody — anybody — that moves the needle just so we’re allowed to feel something again, that’s not really a great way to analyze what the Vikings have done this offseason.
Let’s be a little more objective about it and ask: Have the Vikings done the right thing by essentially opting out of free agency?
We can begin picking that apart by answering whether spending big in free agency is a successful approach? In recent Vikings history, the 2024 free agency work they did may be the best that any team has ever done. Seriously. They landed a 4,300-yard, 35-touchdown quarterback, a second-team All-Pro outside linebacker, a Pro Bowl edge rusher, a starting outside corner and a 1,110-yard rusher.
That’s insane.
However, the next year in free agency, the Vikings signed two defensive tackles who came short of expectations and weren’t initially good scheme fits. They brought back the same RB, who battled injuries all year. They paid $18 million per year for a guard who finished 34th of 61 starters by PFF and the guy he replaced finished 23rd. They re-signed a corner at top dollar who didn’t repeat his high INT rate. The veteran center they signed only played five games and the guy he replaced went to the Super Bowl.
To be fair, they also found an underrated LB in Eric Wilson and top-20 PFF corner in Isaiah Rodgers, both at a very good price.
You want the kicker? PFF graded both free agency periods right after they happened. They gave the 2024 free agency an A- and the 2025 free agency an A+.
They weren’t the only ones. The Athletic graded all the Vikings’ moves individually as either Bs or As. CBS Sports named them last year’s biggest winner of free agency.
That doesn’t mean everyone was on board with every move. ESPN’s analytics expert Seth Walder questioned some of the value issues and declining performances. That skepticism during the spending spree turned out to be justified.
How often are the experts right about free agency?
The right word is probably: “Sometimes.”
One of the 2025 free agency analysis columns that I ran across named Sam Darnold one of the biggest losers of free agency because he didn’t land a mega contract. Well, I’m not so sure he feels like he lost 2025 free agency now that he has a Super Bowl ring.
Looking back at all of PFF’s grades, they certainly nailed some from last offseason. They were pretty high on Chicago’s moves, which helped drive them to a division title. They were way down on Dallas’s inactivity on defense. They loved Denver and were meh on Green Bay. However, they also gave a C- to the Texans, who nailed it, and were only so-so on the AFC reps in the Super Bowl, New England.
Oh and then there’s everyone’s grade on Washington. You would be hard pressed to find analysis of the Commanders last offseason that wasn’t slobbering at their wild free agency success. As we know, it blew up in their face.
At best, we can conclude that the analysis leans toward being slight better than NFL Draft grades, which are totally for entertainment purposes only (and tend to just reward to crappy teams with a ton of picks) but certainly not all that telling.
Winning free agency does not always equal winning.
But nobody was asking the Vikings to come home with the 2026 free agency trophy this year. With spending constraints due to partying like it’s 1999 in March over the last two offseasons, the expectation was that they would work around the edges, do some savvy stuff, play the sneaky-good-signing game and fill in some roster holes.
Instead, they have watched free agency roll by like a boat on the Mississippi River. Wave at everyone on board as the thing passes.
That’s harder to understand when you look at the current squad and ask: What’s going to happen at center? Do they have enough in the backfield to be a good running team? Who is replacing Jalen Nailor? Where will interior pressure come from on the D-line? Do they have any depth at edge? Do they have any depth at linebacker? What’s happening at safety?
That’s a lot of questions to be asked during the second week of free agency as even the highly questionable and oft-injured players like Christian Kirk and Hollywood Brown are finding homes. We are reaching the Kendall Wright or Michael Floyd portions of the program here (if you know, you know).
The Vikings have enough talent across the roster and a veteran quarterback who is capable of taking a team to the playoffs, so why wouldn’t they want to shore up more of the problems on the squad and take their best shot. After all, they are still within the window that was laid out by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to win while they had the rookie QB contract and with Kyler Murray making less than Andrew DePaola, that hasn’t changed.
Move a few dollars down the road, man. Extend a few contracts, brother. Why do nothing?
For one, getting right in the future does matter. It’s super duper fun to restructure contracts and hand out extensions with the goal of making the most of this group while it’s still together. We have seen in the past how tough it is to retool, namely in the 7-win 2020 and 2023 seasons.
There are a couple potential responses to that. First, that the Vikings are 20th in effective cap space for 2027, per OverTheCap.com. That’s not ideal. If you make it much worse now, then it only gets harder to course correct eventually. Selling out for 2026, even with smaller deals that might carry larger cap hits in Year 2 of a deal, can be restrictive and you betcha that restructures and void years etc. will do damage.
Also, sometimes the outside answer isn’t better than the one you have in house. We don’t know what Tai Felton can be as a wide receiver yet but KJ Osborn and Jalen Nailor took big steps forward and became contributors at WR3.
We thought that Josh Metellus was just a special teamer heading into 2023 camp and he ended up playing 1,000+ snaps.
Who knew that Jalen Redmond was going to become That Dude? Maybe this year that will be Jay Ward and Levi Drake Rodriguez.
Spending just to spend doesn’t mean you actually upgrade. Take the center position for example. Last year, Blake Brandel graded by PFF as the 12th best pass blocking center by PFF (67.5). That was just ahead of Tyler Biadasz, who signed a big contract with the Chargers. That was above Lloyd Cushenberry, a top remaining FA. It was ahead of another top FA Ethan Pocic.
We always tend to think someone else’s players are a better fit and it’s not always true. They are free agents for a reason.
Overlooking Kyler Murray’s addition as a footnote in free agency would also be a mistake when we are trying to evaluate how much better they could be because of March moves. Per analytics expert Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points newsletter, the Vikings have improved just as much as some of the spending teams just by adding one player at the most important position.
The Vikings also don’t have to be done with making additions. Two years ago, Stephon Gilmore came trotting through the door at the end of the summer and played a massive role in the 2024 defense. Fabian Moreau was signed as a practice squad guy and was a valuable rotational player for the defense down the stretch in 2025. In 2022, the Vikings signed Za’Darius Smith in late March to a very reasonable deal.
So things can still change on the roster. Not to mention that mid-season trades have become the norm for this team and around the NFL. Where you at, Cam Akers?
There is also the lingering idea of trading Jonathan Greenard. That would open potential spending or increase draft capital if the Vikings wanted to make a trade.
We also don’t know how the draft will play out. Some years, the draft picks make no impact at all (cough, 2022, cough) and other years they make a big impact from the jump. Fellas like Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw are great examples of instant production but the Vikings have also seen it from recent top guys like Jordan Addison and Donovan Jackson too. Landing two or three players that crack the lineup makes this roster look different.
Unfortunately, the only conclusions we can really make about the Vikings’ lack of buying this March is A) spending wouldn’t have been a guarantee of huge success B) it will help them in the future with the cap C) they are going to have to hit on whatever late signings or moves that they make and find some immediate help in the NFL Draft.
We can also conclude that judging it right now is tricky. If they end up as a good team that was a few pieces short, we might look back and wonder if they were an extra running back or defensive tackle away or one extra restructured contract away.
Normally, that’s not how it works. The teams that win stay healthy and have their best players perform at their best and the teams that come short probably weren’t one free agency add away.
Who knows. All we can do is wait to see how the do-nothing strategy plays out — or if it sustains through the entire offseason. These are the Vikings, after all.