Into the crystal ball: What does the Vikings future look like?
As we enter free agency, trying to project a plan for the franchise
By Matthew Coller
Back when Mike Zimmer signed a contract extension in 2020, I wrote an article attempting to project the way that his contract would ultimately play out between 2020 and 2023.
At the time, my guess was that they would either make the No. 7 seed or miss the playoffs in 2020, return to prominence in 2021, struggle in 2022 and move on from Kirk Cousins and then end up with Aaron Rodgers in 2023.
Some of that turned out to be right, I suppose. To my credit, they lost eight one-score games in 2021 and probably would have made the playoffs if not for a run of injuries and Zimmer going to battle with his own quarterback and general manager.
And they did almost get Aaron Rodgers, eventually.
OK I’ll admit that my crystal ball may have short circuited because predicting the future is incredibly hard in football.
Think about what we thought about the Vikings last offseason at the time. After the decision was made to let Sam Darnold hit the market and they went on a spending spree that included two pass-rushing defensive tackles, a big giant guard, keeping a top-25 cornerback, retaining a quality running back and pairing him with the modern version of LeRoy Hoard and adding help at cornerback and linebacker, we figured that they had finally nailed the build-around-rookie-QB-contract model.
What we didn’t see coming was that JJ McCarthy wasn’t ready to start right away and the Vikings’ lack of a backup plan left them up a creek. The supporting cast and play calling that was thought to be invincible turned out to be very much mortal and they suffered a biblical level of injuries in the early part of the season, losing Harrison Smith, Blake Cashman, Christian Darrisaw, Aaron Jones, Ryan Kelly etc. right from the jump.
If you were looking into the future at this time last March, you would have likely predicted that the Vikings would be heading into 2026 free agency looking for every last dollar to add the finishing touches to a strong roster around McCarthy. You wouldn’t have guessed that they would be tightening the purse strings under an interim general manager and exploring every possible option for a new starting quarterback.
Though you certainly could have guessed that some of the moves from last offseason would end up being dubious. Letting go of a 14-win quarterback was one of the most bold/risky things we have ever seen a team do at that position considering McCarthy wasn’t even healthy for them to evaluate him behind the scenes in 2024.
And the number of players who they signed that either had a disturbing injury history or declining performance made you question what the chances were that they would all end up playing out in their favor. They also paid top dollar for everyone. Highest price for Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, Will Fries, Byron Murphy Jr., Aaron Jones. The only moves that turned out to be good were the ones that they paid the least for i.e. Jordan Mason, Isaiah Rodgers and Eric Wilson.
There are some free agency lessons baked into those results. Maybe chasing the results of one game (playoff loss to the Rams) isn’t ideal. Maybe the top dollar free agents are often the most risky because the players’ teams are letting them go for a reason. Maybe the second wave is the best wave. Maybe injury history should be deeply considered rather than hoping a training staff can work miracles. Age curves matter. The cap is real.
Why this all matters to trying to predict the next three years of Vikings roster building is that they will need to deal with the repercussions of the 2025 offseason and take into account some of the things that went sideways.
Now as free agency kicks off, the Vikings are in a wildly different place than we expected them to be on March 9, 2026.
With that, let’s bring out the crystal ball…
2026
We already know that the Vikings are aiming to find another quarterback and that they aren’t expected to move every single dollar into the future that they can. So how can they approach the 2026 offseason and still land in a favorable spot?
The crystal ball is showing that we will not be able to put the Vikings into a box of “win now” or “rebuild.” We can’t even really call it a “competitive rebuild” unless they end up trading Jonathan Greenard.
The price tag for Maxx Crosby may have been inspiring for the Vikings to move Greenard or it might have made other teams back off because now anything less than a first-round pick looks like a loss.
If they do not trade Greenard, then they are a good team that has an eye on the future but is hardly in teardown mode just because they let underperforming, expensive, older players exit stage left.
We should expect them sign a quarterback that they believe can take them to the playoffs in 2026. That might be Kyler Murray, Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins. Then the plan will be to allow JJ McCarthy to develop behind the scenes and reassess the quarterback position at a later date.
The word “baseline” has been tossed around because the Vikings are capable of winning 10-12 games with somewhere between the 10th and 18th best QB performance, considering they still believe that Justin Jefferson can elevate even a middling QB. Heck, Carson Wentz found him for 115.6 yards per game over a five-game stretch.
If the Vikings can get either Murray or Smith for $1.3 million because their previous teams are footing the bill, then the door opens for them to look into free agents that would require some type of decent contract. That still doesn’t mean the top players like center Tyler Linderbaum or pass rusher Trey Hendrickson or Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd. But it could open the door for them to be in play for solid FAs like former Falcons RB Rachaad White or defensive tackle DJ Reader or Chiefs safety Bryan Cook.
If that’s the case, they have a shot at cobbling together better value moves than last year and getting solid production.
That route becomes even more possible if they trade away Greenard, though signings would likely be younger free agents who might have upside in the future.
If they have to spend more on the quarterback position with a move for Kirk Cousins or Daniel Jones or Aaron Rodgers, then we could be looking at one of the most shoestring budgets we have seen from a Vikings offseason in a long time.
That would mean trying to find placeholders or ancient players looking for one last run at it. We saw that in 2021 when the Vikings brought in Bashaud Breeland, Everson Griffen, Sheldon Richardson and traded for Chris Herndon. The odds of that working are not particularly good.
The draft depends a lot on Greenard’s status too. Even in a deep edge rushing class, they can hold off that position if they work out something to keep their top pass rusher in place going forward.
The options will still be robust though. Finding a top cornerback should be a priority but you can make a strong case for simply taking the best player available even if it’s at a position that is currently filled. There is a very reasonable argument for defensive tackle, tight end, wide receiver, running back, center and safety within the first three rounds.
Because of that, trading down appears to be the most sensible option. If they would be happy with a number of players at 18, then they could try to stockpile draft capital with hopes of landing multiple long-term starters and begin looking toward the future rather than trying to fill an immediate need as they did last year by picking Donovan Jackson (who turned out to be a very good pick, by the way).
For entertainment purposes, I used the website Stick To The Model to create a 2026 offseason in which the Vikings followed the most likely script for this March and April and used its option to simulate the season. It returned an 11-6 season in which the Vikings ended up with the No. 6 seed.
That seems pretty reasonable in terms of a best-case scenario outcome.
It’s hard to see the Vikings being able to do enough in terms of the roster to win the Super Bowl unless they have an epic draft that lands multiple impact starters but they will have more than enough talent with “baseline level” quarterback play from Murray/Smith/Cousins to reach the playoffs.
When I ran a second simulation, Stick To The Model only returned an 8-9 season.
When you think about the difference between three wins and how small the margins are in the NFL, it’s bananas to consider how much could change based on those couple of outcomes.
That takes us to 2027…
2027
Since the crystal ball only gives us murky results, we have to look deeper at the two most likely paths: 8 wins and 11 wins.
The difference in Kevin O’Connell’s standing between 8 and 11 wins could be significant. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to fire a coach who would be instantly hired elsewhere and has created a culture that always gets an A grade from the NFLPA survey but there are rarely coaches in the NFL who go five years without playoff wins and survive. At very least there would be a ton of pressure going into 2027.
If he were able to win 11 games and put together three 10+ win seasons with three different starting quarterbacks, any discussion of a future without KOC would go away. That likely applies even if they didn’t get a postseason win.
If the Vikings went 11-6 with Kyler Murray, Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins at QB, they might want to retain them into the future unless they were blown away by JJ McCarthy’s progress behind the scenes.
At 28, Murray has a chance to recreate Baker Mayfield with Tampa Bay or Daniel Jones in Indianapolis and earn a new (but probably reasonable) contract or transition tag and go forward as QB1. If Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins were able to win 11, they might be able to squeeze out one more year while the Vikings drafted a QB to develop behind the scenes unless they felt very good about where JJ McCarthy was following a development season.
An 11-win season does put them in an uncomfortable position because the roster will be a year older and keeping an older QB would feel like treading water. But it would be very difficult to go back to McCarthy after another QB put up 11 wins, even if they are thrilled with his work.
If they go 8-9, then anything is on the table at quarterback. They could draft a QB and give McCarthy a swing or go back to the veteran well or acquire someone else’s former struggling high draft pick QB or all of the above.
The Vikings would need to undergo a serious renovation of the roster at that point as well. They have already worked out a new deal with TJ Hockenson so his contract is set to expire after 2026. Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman’s contracts also run out after 2026 and the Vikings will have a decision on Will Fries because of a roster bonus. It’s unclear whether Jordan Addison will have his fifth-year option picked up or if they can keep Isaiah Rodgers or where Jordan Mason will stand.
That’s a LOT of question marks.
While the Wilf ownership always wants to maintain a level of competitiveness, if they don’t land a bunch of young players fast, they are either going to be in a position to work through a rebuild similar to 2019 going into 2020 or 2022 going into 2023 or they are going to have to spend like crazy to rebuild quickly.
What we don’t know at the moment is the philosophy of the next general manager but Rob Brzezinski’s approach to this offseason might be a window in the Wilfs’ thinking. They may have grown tired of trying to swing at inefficient signings with veteran players in hopes of short-term results.
“I believe in building through the draft,” he told Vikings media at the Combine.
Relating back to the QB position, we have seen two different approaches to that. You can rebuild with a veteran QB like Detroit did around Jared Goff or you can move on from a good-not-great QB in favor of looking toward the future. It tracks more with the Vikings that they would pick the former.
While the idea of taking it all down again and building it back up might feel daunting, it’s also the natural progression of timelines in the NFL. The Vikings had a plan beginning in 2023 to build toward 2025 and 2026 and ultimately it did not go exactly how they wanted. But they always knew that after that there would have to be a new wave of players on their way. Consider how different the 2022 and 2024 Vikings rosters were, even though they both produced 13+ win seasons.
If they are able to maintain their reputation and culture with sound leadership, it should be possible to recreate those quick turnarounds.
In terms of the franchise’s overall direction though, nothing will feel settled until they land on a quarterback that they can build with over a number of years.
There has been much made of the clock ticking on McCarthy’s rookie contract but if he were to return to starting and play like a franchise QB, it would make rebuilding the roster around him much easier. They would then know that stockpiling draft picks like Green Bay did around Jordan Love or Detroit around Goff would have to be the way to set up the squad rather than spending or trading.
If neither Murray/Smith/Cousins/QBX or McCarthy become The Guy, then it’s onto the 2027 draft. They would probably need to use draft capital to move up, which makes it even more important that they stockpile this offseason as best as possible. And then the build begins for 2028 when Young QBX would be taking a step forward in a perfect world.
That brings us to: What’s a reasonable expectation for 2027?
If they are able to find solid ground at QB, it’s going to feel like the franchise has found itself.
It’s very hard to put a win number on 2027 because 1) it’s really, really far away and 2) we have seen the Vikings outperform expectations when they were supposed to be in a rebuilding year (2024) but we have also seen the reset seasons go sideways (2020, 2023).
What you’d be looking for is the franchise finding its QB and forming its foundation and creating a clear timeline for the roster build into the following three years.
But as we have seen so many times, the NFL is unpredictable. Who would have ever believed that the San Francisco 49ers would find their QB with the final pick of the 2022 draft? Or that Tom Brady would end up as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer? Or that Sam Darnold would win the Super Bowl as a Seattle Seahawk?
The NFL’s unpredictability makes it wonderful and frustrating. As free agency begins this week, we will start to see the dominos begin to fall. Where it goes from there, not even the best crystal ball knows.
It's a credit to KOC that the very disappointing meltdown QB season was 9-8. In most places, that's a recipe for 4-13.
Presumably the Wilfs know KOC is a good coach, QB play is critical to success, and the overwhelming likelihood is having bad-mediocre QB play in 2026 and then drafting one again in 2027. So, barring some off-field incident, KOC should be here through 2027 and then reevaluated.
Might be a pretty interesting draft class if we take Rob’s build through the draft comment at face value. It’s always hard to do a realistic mock draft on the sites out there because they usually offer you a quality trade down opportunity with every pick, but if you trade Greenard for two solid picks and trade down once or twice, you’ll be looking at somewhere between 7-9 top 100 picks. Smart move is definitely to push some of those picks to 2027, but I’ll be a little surprised if they actually do that. By far the most likely scenario is that they are drafting a QB next year, so Rob gets my GM vote if he makes moves to support that.